Is the airplane industry headed for a downturn?

Published 1:33 pm Monday, February 29, 2016

Here’s a shock: The future is uncertain.

Oil is down now, but it likely will go back up in the next few years, leading aerospace economist Adam Pilarski said Monday at the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading conference in Phoenix. He is with Avitas, an aerospace consulting agency.

Scott Hamilton of Leeham News and Commentary is posting updates at his website.

Pilarski saw the drop in oil prices well ahead of most — perhaps all — other analysts. He expects oil to go back up to about $70 a barrel. The danger, he said, is that airlines will buy too many airplanes while it is low, and be stuck with too much capacity when the cost goes back up.

Meanwhile, John Leahy, who is in charge of sales at Airbus, said his biggest concern is producing enough airplanes to meet demand. He said he doesn’t see any downturn, Hamilton writes.

Dan Catchpole: 425-339-3454; dcatchpole@heraldnet.com; Twitter: @dcatchpole.