GOP plan ‘devastating,’ say governor, insurance commissioner

Published 1:30 am Thursday, March 16, 2017

OLYMPIA — Gov. Jay Inslee on Wednesday continued his attacks on the national health care plan pushed by Republicans, calling it a “morally reprehensible” approach that would push 700,000 Washingtonians off insurance while driving up the cost of coverage for millions of others.

“Who could possibly think this is a good idea?” the governor said in a conference call with reporters.

Though he repeatedly bashed what he calls Trumpcare, Inslee expressed confidence Republicans in Congress will “come to their senses” to stop it when they realize it could set their party up for “political suicide” in the 2018 elections.

“I think there’s a pretty good chance to derail this train,” he said.

Insurance Commissioner Mike Kreidler joined Inslee on the call and said the proposed overhaul “will have a devastating impact on Washington individuals and families.”

Data compiled by his office predicts the number of people without health insurance in Washington would rise from 410,000 today to 1.1 million as early as 2020.

Of those, roughly 600,000 would be lower-income people who gained coverage through an expansion of Medicaid the GOP wants to phase out. Another 100,000 are expected to stop buying insurance if existing subsidies and fines under the Affordable Care Act are eliminated as the Republicans’ proposed overhaul does.

The drop-out rate would be higher in rural areas than urban areas, according to Kreidler’s office.

Statewide, 82 percent of those in their 20s who bought health coverage in the individual insurance market under the Affordable Care Act would quit if the GOP plan was in effect today. And it would be 83 percent of those aged 60 to 65, according to the commissioner’s analysis.

Future state budgets could take a hit if the plan became law as written.

When the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, was fully implemented it replaced several state programs. Restoring them would cost $351 million per biennium, according to Bob Crittenden, Inslee’s senior policy adviser for health care.

If the state sought to preserve coverage for those insured through the Medicaid expansion it would cost another $1.3 billion a year, he said.

Neither of those expenses are envisioned to come due in the state’s next two-year budget, Inslee said.

Hospitals, which recorded a 10 percent drop in visits from uninsured individuals since the Affordable Care Act took hold, are bracing for a surge.

“We’re plainly very worried about what happens to hospitals,” Kreidler said. “I can guarantee you when you wind up uninsuring hundreds of thousands of people … they are going to wind up going to emergency rooms because they don’t have insurance.”

State Sen. Ann Rivers, R-La Center, chairwoman of the Senate Health Care Committee, issued a statement late Wednesday pushing back on the dire depictions.

“No matter what may come out of Washington, D.C., our state’s legislators will have an additional two years’ time to address any changes that affect Washingtonians,” she said.

“No one can say how many people bought health coverage through the state exchange to avoid the Obama tax penalty, and how many of those would be affected by a new federal health care policy,” she continued. “No one knows what lies ahead at the federal level concerning the women, children and disabled for whom Medicaid is intended — but I remain committed to them and know my counterparts in our state House are as well.”

As now written, the Republican health care proposal axes the individual mandate that requires most people to have health insurance coverage or face fines.

It would also repeal those subsidies that are based on one’s income and intended to help individuals buy health coverage. The GOP approach would offer tax credits based on one’s age. And the proposed plan would phase out Medicaid’s expansion and curb its future spending, and let insurers boost rates for seniors.

On Monday, a report issued by the Congressional Budget Office projected that 14 million people nationwide would lose coverage next year under the House bill dismantling former President Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act.

Under the estimate, there would be 24 million more people uninsured by 2026 than under current law. Most of those would be people who lose Medicaid coverage or decide to stop buying insurance once they know they won’t be penalized, the report concluded.

It also estimates the federal deficit would be trimmed by $337 billion in the next decade, largely by reductions in Medicaid, the health insurance program for the poor, and eliminating those subsidies for low- and middle-income people.

Meanwhile, average premiums are projected to rise in 2018 and 2019 by 15 percent to 20 percent compared to current law as a result of the elimination of the individual mandate, the report stated.

But beginning in 2020, premiums would begin to fall in comparison to current law, and by 2026 average premiums for people buying individual coverage would be roughly 10 percent lower than current law.

House Speaker Paul Ryan is reportedly hoping to move the measure through the House next week so the Senate can debate it. He and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell also have acknowledged they are open to changes that could affect the timeline.

Jerry Cornfield: 360-352-8623; jcornfield@heraldnet.com. Twitter at @dospueblos.