Game Day: Seahawks vs. Vikings

Published 6:33 pm Friday, January 8, 2016

SERIES HISTORY

Sunday’s game is the 15th all-time between Seattle and Minnesota, but the first in the playoffs. Seattle holds a 9-5 series lead and has won the past three meetings. Most relevant, the Seahawks traveled to TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis five weeks ago and smashinged the Vikings 38-7. The teams have split their six meetings in Minnesota.

KEY MATCHUP

Vikings RB Adrian Peterson vs. the Seahawks’ run defense

This is no different from the first time the teams met. But the matchup is, if anything, even more pronounced and more critical than it was in the first game.

Seattle won this battle in a knockout five weeks ago. Peterson, who came into the game leading the NFL in rushing, was held to a meager 18 yards on eight carries. That was the third-fewest yards Peterson gained in a game in his nine-year career. Minnesota’s inability to move the ball on the ground, combined with the Seahawks jumping out to a quick lead, meant the Vikings were forced to turn to the passing game, which is not Minnesota’s forte.

“I don’t think we kept him in check (in the first meeting), they weren’t able to run the ball a lot,” Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said of Peterson. “There’s not any misconception of what happened in that game to us at all. We think he’s an incredible football player. They know how to give it to him and they’re going to do that. That was a game that just happens once in a while. That was not an indication of anything that’s going to come.”

Peterson and the Vikings got back on course in the ensuing weeks. Peterson gained 303 yards over the last four regular-season games to claim his third NFL rushing title, though he averaged just 3.7 yards per carry in the process. Minnesota finished the season fourth in the league in rushing at 138.2 yards per game.

Meanwhile, Seattle’s run defense has only gotten stronger. Last week, the Seahawks, who held the Vikings to 28 total yards rushing in their first meeting, were one yard better in their 36-6 victory at Arizona, holding the Cardinals to 27 yards on the ground. Seattle finished the season with the league’s best run defense, allowing just 81.5 yards per contest.

Whether the Seahawks can continue their excellence against the run and put the clamps on Peterson again likely will determine the outcome of Sunday’s game.

“You can’t expect a guy like (Peterson) to get eight touches in a game,” Seahawks linebacker Bobby Wagner said. “They’re going to find different ways, whether it’s handing the ball off, getting him screens, checking down to him. I definitely feel like he’s going to have a bigger presence in this game. We’re going to do our best to stop him.”

KEY NUMBER

-2. The National Weather Service’s projected temperature, as of Friday, for the 12:05 (CST) kickoff for Sunday’s game, which would make it the coldest game in Seahawks franchise history.

IMPORTANT INJURIES

Seahawks—Seattle thought it was getting RB Marshawn Lynch (abdomen) back after he sat out the previous seven games. However, Lynch was surprisingly ruled out just before the team boarded the plane for Minneapolis. TE Luke Wilson (concussion) also is out. However, SS Kam Chancellor (pelvis), T Russell Okung (calf) and G J.R. Sweezy (concussion) are all set to return.

Vikings—Minnesota is largely healthy. DT Linval Joseph (foot), who missed four of the past five games, practiced all week and is set to return. The only player expected to be unavailable is back-up DT Kenrick Ellis (ankle).

BREAK IT DOWN

The Seahawks will win if they …

Repeat the feat. Seattle’s performance at Minnesota on Dec. 6 was essentially flawless. The Seahawks outgained the Vikings 433-125, QB Russell Wilson’s passer rating of 146.0 was the second-best of his career, and Minnesota was never in the game. Anything close to that all-around performance should see Seattle advance.

Win the turnover battle. Seattle, which had a weird inverse correlation between turnover margin and final result during the first half of the season, saw things normalize in the second half. Seahawks coach Pete Carroll talked during the week about how handling the ball becomes more difficult in the cold. That increases the likelihood of turnovers, which makes them all the more important

Prevent Cordarrelle Patterson from making a big play. Patterson led the NFL by averaging 31.8 yards per kickoff return, and he scored Minnesota’s lone touchdown in the previous meeting by returning a kick 101 yards. The cold weather likely will prevent Seattle kicker Steven Hauschka from being able to kick the ball through the end zone, so the Seahawks will have to be good in coverage.

The Vikings will win if they …

Get healthy on defense. The Vikings essentially were missing four defensive starters in the first meeting — DT Linval Joseph and SS Andrew Sendejo both sat out, and LB Anthony Barr and FS Harrison Smith both exited in the first quarter. All four are expected to play Sunday, meaning Minnesota’s defense should be far more stout than it was in the 38-7 game.

Take the shackles off QB Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater basically didn’t attempt a pass downfield in the previous meeting. Bridgewater is more of a game manager than a game breaker as a quarterback, but the Vikings must at least present the threat of going deep to open things up on the ground.

Take advantage of the conditions. Sunday’s game is forecast to be one of the coldest in NFL history. Minnesota has more experience playing in the cold than Seattle. The Vikings need to take full advantage of their acclimation to the conditions to have a chance at reversing the previous result.

PICK

Seahawks 24, Vikings 13

It seems unlikely Seattle will be able to put the kind of hurt on Minnesota it did during the teams’ regular-season meeting. However, the teams that have had offensive success against the Seahawks this season are ones capable of moving the ball through the air. The Vikings finished 31st out 32 teams in the NFL this season in passing offense. So even with Minnesota’s defense expected to be in better shape, the Vikings don’t possess the offensive variety needed to keep up with Seattle.