What will ‘taking a step back’ look like for Mariners
Published 1:30 am Thursday, November 22, 2018
By Ryan Divish
The Seattle Times
Welcome to the “step back.”
It’s not something familiar to Mariners fans, who have watched as the organization has tried to piece together a roster — at times with duct tape and dreams — while competing for a postseason spot that never materialized over the past 17 seasons.
Phrases like “We feel we can compete now” and “We’re close” were mentioned repeatedly by various club executives over that period, even during times of “salary reduction” — most notably after the 2008 Mariners became the first major-league team to lose 100 games with a $100 million payroll.
That dour season led to the firing of general manager Bill Bavasi and left his replacement, Jack Zduriencik, being asked to move forward as the organization reduced its major-league payroll significantly by refusing to spend on premium players. Basically, it was “We want you to try to win without giving you much help to do so. And also, you can’t say that we aren’t helping you win.”
But this new mantra from current GM Jerry Dipoto is something new.
After the Mariners traded pitcher James Paxton to the Yankees on Monday for three prospects — including New York’s No. 1 prospect, pitcher Justus Sheffield — Dipoto spoke to a variety of media outlets and described the team’s offseason plan to take a “step back” in 2019.
What exactly does a “step back” entail? Well, it means the Mariners are going to use this offseason and probably the trade deadline during the 2019 season to reshape — or if you prefer, re-imagine — their roster, trying to move out players in their 30s or players approaching free agency within the next few years in search of younger talent. Obviously, the chances of moving the bloated contracts of Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager and Felix Hernandez are near zero.
So far, the Mariners have dealt away three contributing players from their 2018 squad — Paxton, catcher Mike Zunino and outfielder Guillermo Heredia — in two trades this offseason.
More moves are coming.
“As we start to assess where we are as an organization, (Paxton and Zunino) were only under control for two more seasons — 2019 and 2020 were the end of their time with the Mariners,” Dipoto said. “Without having the ability to extend those players or without wanting to rebuild a core group that was in their 30s by the time we can put together an impact roster, we had tough decisions to make and we made them.”
Expect to hear some version of the words “young, controllable talent” often in the coming months.
“Clearly, we’ve opted that 2019 is a year we step back, hoping to take two forward,” Dipoto said. “When I say 2020 and 2021, it’s simply gauging the ages of players we’re building around. As you can see with recent moves around here, Erik Swanson will be 25 and Justus Sheffield is 23 and Dom (Thompson-Williams) is 23, Mallex Smith is going to play his 26-year-old season and we added Jake Fraley, who is 24. If you run through our system, from 22-year-old Logan Gilbert, to 23-year-old Evan White, 23-year-old Kyle Lewis, they all start to line up in the same general time zone. Couple that with guys like Mitch Haniger, Edwin Diaz and Marco Gonzales, we start to build a pretty exciting group that should be all performing in the (major leagues) in that 2020-2021 window.”
Of that group listed by Dipoto, only Smith and the trio of Haniger, Diaz and Gonzales have legitimate MLB experience.
“One thing I know about impact players is that it doesn’t generally take them very long to make an impact,” Dipoto said. “So we can start being excited about our short- and long-term prospects.”
So who’s next to go?
Well, that could be just about anyone given Dipoto’s proclivity for making trades and his creativity in coming up with possibilities. He would prefer not to trade Haniger, Diaz or Gonzales despite the first two players having the most trade value on Seattle’s current roster.
“We are going to stay open-minded to anything with a general ‘never say never,’ ” Dipoto said. “With Marco, with Mitch, with Eddie, we would have to be blown away to move players like that.”
But it would still be a disservice to the principles of a “step back” if Dipoto didn’t at least listen to offers. Three or four players for Diaz, including an elite prospect and a high-level prospect, well, that couldn’t be ignored.
The players the Mariners would prefer to deal can be determined by looking at their ages and contract status.
The most likely to be traded in the coming weeks is shortstop Jean Segura. Yes, he was an All-Star last season and is a highly productive player with a somewhat club friendly contract. Segura is owed just under $60 million over the next four years, with a club option at $17 million for 2023 (with $1 million buyout).
Questions about his ability to continue to play shortstop going forward and a perception of being a bad teammate also are very real. But a team in search of a middle infielder who can play second or shortstop and make in impact with his bat might overlook the long-term commitment for short-term help.
A proposed trade reported by the Athletic that had Segura and pitcher Mike Leake being sent to the Padres in exchange for slugging outfielder Wil Myers surfaced on Twitter on Monday. Sources in MLB and close to the Mariners organization said the proposed deal was discussed more than two weeks ago and never materialized.
The Mariners would be happy to trade Leake if given a decent return. The veteran right-hander is owed $31 million over the next two seasons, but a team in desperate need of a reliable back of the rotation starter might take a chance on Leake despite him being about a 1.5 WAR player
Both Segura and Leake have full no-trade clauses, meaning they can veto any trades.
Any trade involving Segura or Leake likely would involve the Mariners taking on some salary. But eating salary and getting a decent young player in return — that’s step-back thinking.
Another trade possibility would be veteran reliever Alex Colome, who turns 30 in December and is arbitration eligible. Colome’s success as a set-up man and his previous success as a closer could make him valuable to teams desperate for back-of-the-bullpen help. If the Mariners are stepping back in 2019, having a 30-year-old set-up man is a luxury. Seattle also could gamble on Colome’s value increasing at the MLB trade deadline in 2019. The Mariners also would be willing to move reliever Juan Nicasio, who is a free agent after 2019, and infielder Dee Gordon, who has two years left on his contract, if given the right deals.
The Mariners would love to add a young catcher to fill Zunino’s spot, perhaps in 2020. They’re expected to sign a veteran free agent for the upcoming season, but if they were able to move Segura, Leake or Colome and get a young catcher who’s on the verge of being big-league ready, that would be ideal.
Their middle infield prospects at the higher level of the minor leagues also are lacking, so a young shortstop or second baseman would be beneficial.
But the real question remains whether there will be one “step back” in 2019 or multiple “steps back” in the years that follow?
