Handicapping the Oscars: Who’ll walk away with trophies

Published 9:25 am Friday, February 22, 2008

The biggest Oscar prediction of all has already been settled: Yes, there will be an 80th Academy Awards ceremony Sunday night.

The months-long writers’ strike had threatened the annual exercise in Hollywood self-congratulation. But everything’s settled, Jon Stewart is tanned and rested for hosting duties, and the accountants at Price, Waterhouse have been stuffing things in envelopes for the last week or so.

Since I’ve predicted the last two best picture winners wrong (“Crash” and “The Departed” won), my batting average as an Oscar soothsayer has gone down of late. This year doesn’t look like an easy bet, either.

As far as the nominations go, it was a rare year of Academy sanity. The two most impressive pictures of the year, “No Country for Old Men” and “There Will Be Blood,” actually racked up the most nominations — eight apiece.

Of course, that’s no guarantee either film with end up as best picture. The critics groups may have anointed those two, but the audience embraced “Juno,” the highest-grossing of the best picture nominees. It took this year’s designated indie slot (stealing it from “Once,” a more original movie).

Mind you, “indie” is a relative term. “Juno” features an all-star cast of top Hollywood actors and is directed by an experienced, if young, filmmaker (whose father was a successful director). Not exactly a scruffy outsider movie.

But maybe that’s my prejudice showing; I’m not crazy about “Juno.” The four other nominees are all really fine, though. “Michael Clayton” is an unusually intelligent, crisply shot thriller with a bracing political sting, and “Atonement,” while at first glance an old-fashioned, veddy British literary picture, turns out to be anything but that simple.

What else can we expect? Well, an honorary Oscar for an unheralded but deserving Hollywood pro: production designer Robert Boyle, a 98-year-old trouper whose career goes all the way back to being an assistant in the art department on 1941’s “The Wolfman” (and whose triumphs include “In Cold Blood,” “Fiddler on the Roof” and Hitchcock’s “North by Northwest”).

And the actors? Everybody thinks it’s Daniel Day-Lewis in a walkaway for his spectacular, black-hearted turn in “There Will Be Blood.” I think everybody is right.

The other acting categories are up for grabs, even if the favorite in the actress category is officially Julie Christie, for “Away From Her.” Like Day-Lewis, she’d be collecting her second statuette.

What else will this year’s Oscars be remembered for? This was the year they nominated “Norbit,” a widely reviled Eddie Murphy comedy. (Although it was better than at least 50 other movies I saw last year.) If it wins for best makeup, start the jokes immediately.

Let’s get prognosticating. These are the movies and performers I think will win, not necessarily my own favorites. Expect some upsets, some political speeches and some inappropriate gowns.

We wouldn’t have it any other way.

BEST PICTURE: “No Country for Old Men.” This impeccable adaptation of Cormac McCarthy’s modern-Western novel is a somewhat easier movie to handle than the wilder, more ambitious “There Will Be Blood.” It would be a deserving winner. But there are those “Juno” rumblings. Without a clear front-runner, something surprising could happen — say, the emergence of the smart, socially minded “Michael Clayton” as the big winner. “Atonement” is the only one here that strikes me as outside the pale.

BEST ACTRESS: Ellen Page, “Juno.” As the 16-year-old who’s a wiseacre beyond her years, this Canadian actress hit every note just about perfectly — she almost made me believe such a character could exist. Still, Christie is the odds-on favorite, and some people are tabbing Marion Cotillard’s uncanny incarnation of Edith Piaf in “La Vie en Rose” as the surprise here. Laura Linney (“The Savages”) is overdue, while Cate Blanchett (“Elizabeth: The Golden Age”) is not.

BEST ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis, “There Will Be Blood.” Even if this isn’t my favorite style of film acting, you don’t see many actors do this kind of go-for-broke highwire act anymore, and Day-Lewis is astonishing. Onlookers will include: George Clooney (“Michael Clayton”), Johnny Depp (“Sweeney Todd”), Tommy Lee Jones (“In the Valley of Elah”) and Viggo Mortensen (“Eastern Promises”).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Amy Ryan, “Gone Baby Gone.” Only because she struck me as the likely winner when I first saw the film, because frankly I haven’t got a clue who will win this category. Don’t bet against Ruby Dee (“American Gangster”), a sentimental vote for an esteemed veteran. The others have a shot, too: Cate Blanchett (“I’m Not There”), Tilda Swinton (“Michael Clayton”) and Saoirse Ronan (“Atonement”).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Javier Bardem, “No Country for Old Men.” This amazing actor already seems overdue for an Oscar, and his weirdly calibrated force of evil (emphatically not a “serial killer,” despite being frequently written about that way) is uncanny. Equally impressive was Casey Affleck, who really had the lead role in “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford” — although it perfectly fits that film’s theme that Bob Ford should be relegated to supporting player. Hal Holbrook (“Into the Wild”), Tom Wilkinson (“Michael Clayton”) and Philip Seymour Hoffman (“Charlie Wilson’s War”) are long shots.

BEST DIRECTOR: Joel and Ethan Coen, “No Country for Old Men.” Virtually a master class in movie directing, it’s hard to know how to beat this choice, although incredible ingenuity was shown by Paul Thomas Anderson (“There Will Be Blood”) and Julian Schnabel (“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”) in their films — one external, one internal. Tony Gilroy (“Michael Clayton”) and Jason Reitman (“Juno”) round out the list.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: “Juno,” by Diablo Cody. No one, it seems, can resist the true story of Ms. Cody, a former stripper and blogger who struck gold with her first script. Except me: The award should go to Tony Gilroy, for “Michael Clayton.” The others: “Ratatouille” by Brad Bird, “The Savages” by Tamara Jenkins and “Lars and the Real Girl” by Nancy Oliver.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: “No Country for Old Men,” by Joel and Ethan Coen. They did a remarkable job of staying true to a novelist’s vision while making the material completely their own. Ronald Harwood (“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”) and Christopher Hampton (“Atonement”) both did ingenious work, and Sarah Polley (“Away From Her”) did a heartfelt job. P.T. Anderson’s “There Will Be Blood” is crazier, but inspired.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: “Ratatouille.” Everybody loved it, with good reason. But I have a sneaking suspicion that “Persepolis,” the French-Iranian film, might just take it away, at a time when politics and the Middle East are much on everybody’s minds. Also: “Surf’s Up.”

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: “The Counterfeiters,” Austria. In this frequently mystifying category, the voters turned aside the obvious choices, so this is a guess — a good story of World War II concentration camps. Maybe the favorite is “Katyn,” by Poland’s grand master, Andrzej Wadja, but I haven’t seen it yet. Also: “12” (Russia), “Beaufort” (Israel) and “Mongol” (Kazakhstan — an apology for nominating “Borat” last year?).

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: “No End in Sight.” Most of the nominees are current-affairs entries, and this summary of Iraq War gaffes should sit well with the voters. Next likely is the searing “Taxi to the Dark Side,” about the state of torture. Also: “Operation Homecoming,” “War Dance” and Michael Moore’s “Sicko.”

BEST MUSIC: “Atonement,” Dario Marianelli. Wild guess. It sounds like an Oscar-winning score. The music from “3:10 to Yuma,” “The Kite Runner,” “Michael Clayton” and “Ratatouille” is also in there.

BEST SONG: “Falling Slowly,” from “Once,” by Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova. Not only a great song, but it was integral to a classic movie sequence. The three songs from “Enchanted” and one from “August Rush” shouldn’t count.