Craig Counsell gave us a glimpse into the future.
In Game 5 of the National League Championship Series last Wednesday between the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers Counsell, Milwaukee’s manager did something never seen before in playoff baseball. Counsell started left-hander Wade Miley on the mound, had him face one batter, then immediately brought in right-hander Brandon Woodruff. It was revealed later in the game that Miley would then be the starter for Game 6 as well.
This was just the most extreme example of Counsell’s unique pitcher management during the series. The Brewers’ biggest weakness was their starting pitching. So what did Counsell do? He essentially eliminated the starting pitcher. Milwaukee’s starters averaged just eight outs during the NLCS, with the Brewers leaning heavily on their deep and talented bullpen, many of those relievers throwing multiple innings.
It was a revolutionary method for handling a pitching staff. But my suggestion is to get used to it. For better or worse, this is where pitcher usage is heading.
I remember reading an essay published by baseball analytics pioneer Bill James in 2001 in which he theorized that baseball teams may be best served by using three-man rotations and putting them on strict pitch limits. This was a notion he reinforced with an article published in 2015. While this hasn’t happened, and may never happen, we’re already seeing teams buck the tradition of starting rotations.
Take a look at what the Tampa Bay Rays did this year. The Rays became regular users of the “opener,” meaning a pitcher who started the game, but only pitched an inning or two. Ryne Stanek started 29 games, but never pitched more than two innings in any of those starts. Despite making 29 starts he threw just 66.1 innings, while also making 30 relief appearances.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Seattle Mariners were the next team to jump aboard this train. Looking at the current state of Seattle’s rotation and the moves made with the farm system, it sure seems like an organizational push toward the type of model deployed by Counsell. The Mariners are short on quality starting pitching, and over the past two years they’ve traded away just about every good starting pitching prospect they had. Meanwhile, the one area where Seattle’s depleted farm system still appears to have depth is in hard-throwing, multi-inning relievers like Art Warren and Wyatt Mills. Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto is an analytics guy, so he’s receptive to innovative ideas.
Is this good strategy? It sure seems to be.
First, analytics indicate that pitchers become less effective the third time through the lineup as batters get multiple looks at a pitcher’s stuff. The difference might not be as extreme as playoff broadcasts suggest — according to USSMariner.com batters in 2018 had a .315 wOBA (weighted on-base average, which measures a hitter’s total contribution) overall, but a .322 wOBA when seeing a pitcher for a third time. So the numbers suggest there’s at least some value to removing a pitcher earlier in the game.
Second, early pitching changes can give a manager the initiative with regards to creating favorable matchups. We saw that in the series between the Brewers and Dodgers. Los Angeles essentially had a left-handed lineup and a right-handed lineup based on the opposing starting pitcher. By making a pitching change early Counsell either gained the platoon advantage or forced the Dodgers to burn their bench early in the game.
Third, shorter outings mean pitchers can max their effort out instead of having to save something for later in the game. Therefore, pitchers are able to come in and throw their hardest, and they don’t necessarily need to develop their third and fourth pitches as much.
Now, is this good for baseball? Not necessarily.
Baseball games are already interminably long. This season the average game lasted 3 hours, which was tied for the third longest in history. But in the postseason, with teams making earlier and more pitching changes? The average game time has been 3:44. That’s a lot of time to hold an audience’s attention, particularly during the smart-phone, short-attention-span era.
And strikeouts are already at an all-time high. According to Baseball-Reference.com, teams averaged 8.48 strikeouts per team per game this season, the most in major-league history. That rate has risen every year since 2005, when it was 6.30. This was the first season in which there were more strikeouts than hits. Yes, pitcher usage isn’t the only reason for the increase in strikeouts, but more pitchers maxing out sure isn’t going to cause that number to decrease. If you like strikeouts, this is a great development. But if you like actual action with the ball in play, baseball is headed in the wrong direction for you.
The more the games matter, the shorter the leash managers seem to have with their starting pitchers. So with the World Series between the Dodgers and Boston Red Sox beginning Tuesday, expect more of this — earlier hooks for starters, frequent pitching changes, high strikeout totals and longer games.
And whether you like it or not, you’d better get used to it. This is the future of baseball pitching, and that future is now.
Follow Nick Patterson on Twitter at @NickHPatterson.
Talk to us
> Give us your news tips.
> Send us a letter to the editor.
> More Herald contact information.
