Mariners near AL West title after sweeping Astros
Published 9:30 am Tuesday, September 23, 2025
Julio Rodriguez sparked Friday’s home-run barrage. Victor Robles soared to make one of the great catches in Seattle Mariners lore Saturday. J.P. Crawford capped a magical weekend in grand style on ESPN’s “Sunday Night Baseball” — a second-inning slam that powered the M’s to a three-game sweep over their archrivals in one of the defining regular-season series in franchise history.
A story told in three acts, the Mariners dismantled the Houston Astros at their own Daikin Park, flipping a script that for so long favored their Texas foes. It was a series that, barring the unthinkable, puts Seattle in the driver’s seat for its first American League West title since 2001. Six regular-season games remain, and the Mariners own a three-game division lead (and the head-to-head tiebreaker) thanks to a dominant showing with the baseball world watching.
“It seems like it’s a different guy every day,” catcher Cal Raleigh said after his Mariners won the 14th of their last 15 games. “That’s the great thing about this team. A different guy shows up every day in a different way. Whether it’s on the basepaths, fielding, hitting, pitching. That’s what good teams are made of.”
The News Tribune breaks down the odds, magic numbers, and more as MLB’s postseason nears: SEATTLE MARINERS: WORLD SERIES FAVORITES?
Let’s start with the basics: Following Monday’s off-day, Seattle wraps up the regular season at T-Mobile Park with a six-game homestand against the Colorado Rockies (43-113) and Los Angeles Dodgers (88-68).
The Mariners could clinch an AL postseason berth as early as Tuesday, needing a win over the Rockies and a New York Yankees win over the Chicago White Sox. Seattle’s magic number to reach the playoffs is two.
FanGraphs gives the Mariners the best chance in MLB to win their first World Series title, along with a virtual guarantee to appear in October. The odds are as follows:
To make postseason: 99.9 percent (FanGraphs displays that number as 100 percent, though the Mariners have not mathematically clinched.)
To win AL West: 98.4 percent
To clinch first-round bye: 94 percent
To win AL pennant: 34 percent
To win World Series: 18.8 percent (best in MLB)
Here are the teams with the best odds to win it all, per FanGraphs:
Seattle Mariners: 18.8 percent
Los Angeles Dodgers: 15.2 percent
New York Yankees: 11.7 percent
Philadelphia Phillies: 11.5 percent
“The job’s not finished,” Crawford said after Sunday night’s dramatic grand slam that silenced a sold-out crowd in Houston. “We have six more important games that we have to take care of.
“We’ve got to look forward to Tuesday.” THREE, THAT’S THE MAGIC NUMBER
With a three-game lead over the Astros in the AL West standings, the Mariners can win the division for the first time in 24 years as early as Wednesday night if the stars align.
Seattle’s “magic number” to win the AL West is three.
Any Mariners win or Astros loss lessens that number. Because the Mariners own the head-to-head tiebreaker with Houston, the Astros would need to gain four games in the standings to leapfrog Seattle with six games to play.
In other words, Seattle can win the AL West with a 4-2 finish this week — and that’s assuming the Astros win out. It’s why FanGraphs says there’s a 98.4 percent chance the Mariners prevail.
When Seattle returns to T-Mobile Park for the season’s final homestand, more than a division title is at stake. If the Mariners (87-69) indeed win the division, they’ll closely watch the Detroit Tigers (85-71) in their final six games as the clubs battle for the American League’s final bye to the American League Division Series (ALDS).
Here’s how the American League playoff picture currently sits, with the league’s top two seeds bypassing the AL Wild Card round and proceeding directly to the ALDS:
1. Toronto — 90-66
2. Seattle — 87-69
3. Detroit — 85-71
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4. New York (88-68)
5. Boston (85-71)
6. Cleveland (84-72)
The Mariners also own a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Tigers, meaning four wins in their final six games at T-Mobile Park would secure that coveted bye, regardless of Detroit’s results.
“We’ve got a lot of work to do,” Mariners manager Dan Wilson said, “and it starts again on Tuesday. We’ve been here. Last year, we were (in Houston), and saw a celebration on the field on their part.
“That sticks with you.” RALEIGH VS. JUDGE: WHO WINS MVP?
Cal Raleigh’s odds to win AL MVP: -115.
Aaron Judge’s odds to win AL MVP: -115.
With six games to play, the American League Most Valuable Player race is nearing a photo finish.
Judge, the Yankees slugger and two-time AL MVP, leads the major leagues in several hitting categories: batting average (.326), on-base percentage (.451) and slugging percentage (.672), while leading the American League in total bases (350) and runs scored (130).
Raleigh leads the majors in home runs (58), needing four more to tie Judge’s single-season AL record (62) set in 2022 — but also plays the sport’s most demanding position at an elite level nearly every day.
It’s an easy decision for Mariners shortstop J.P. Crawford.
“We’re watching history every day. It’s kind of surprising when he only gets base hits now. It’s not really cool,” Crawford joked. “When he hits a homer, everyone’s like, ‘He did it again.’ He’s one step closer every time to more history. It’s really cool to see.
“He’s playing every day. He’s catching. He’s getting beat up every day. That’s pretty impressive.”
