By Paul Roberts / For The Herald
The climate crisis defies man-made boundaries. The physical environment — oceans and atmosphere — are defined by Earth’s natural systems, independent of social or political boundaries.
The economy is also global in nature. Production of goods and services are not limited to specific nations, regions or political boundaries. However, policies, including those intended to address the climate crisis and economics, exist exclusively within political geographies: cities, states and nations.
The climate crisis brings together nature’s laws, economic laws and man’s laws. Climate change is caused by burning fossil fuels, and the Paris agreement has the world moving away from reliance on fossil fuels and toward a zero-emission economy. This is good news for addressing the climate crisis, though the response is much too slow and fragmented.
Leadership is knowing the parade route in advance. Some of the more obvious signs of the transition toward a zero-emission economy are visible in the initiatives of the largest economies: China, the United States, India, Europe and Asia. All are taking steps toward decarbonization. Today these steps are at a snail’s pace, marked with strong cross-currents and geopolitics. But they are steps in the right direction to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and there is evidence the pace is increasing.
The nations of the world are engaged in a balancing act between the need to maintain economic and domestic political stability and decarbonizing their respective economies. The move toward decarbonization weaves together environmental health, economic health, political stability and ultimately human health.
Speed and scale matter. The climate does not care. The Earth is not operating on human time frames and is not waiting for humans to get their act together, as evidenced by increasing heat and climate disasters. Increasing GHG emissions are driving climate destabilization. We are in a race for self-preservation and survival.
As the nations of the world jockey for position and favor in the world economic order, clean energy, transportation, electric vehicles and technology are leading the way. As reported in the May 11 edition of the Economist magazine, globalization is giving way to a new nationalistic anti-globalization world economic order. The global superpowers are moving away from traditional trade-dependent global institutions and toward independent trade policies. For example, China and the U.S. are in direct competition for control of natural resources (e.g. lithium, cobalt and copper) necessary for battery production, EVs, clean energy, computer chips and AI technology.
The race for control of clean energy technologies has implications for decarbonization and the speed and scale with which it might unfold. The increased demand for clean energy driven by EVs, digital technology and AI is exploding, triggering a parallel revolution in the utility sector to meet increasing demand with clean, renewable sources.
The competition for emerging technologies is fierce as reported in the June 15 Economist: China has had the upper hand in terms of raw materials and manufacturing capabilities. It has installed more renewable energy than any other nation. “They [China] lead the world in physical sciences, chemistry, and earth and environmental sciences according to both the Nature Index and citation measures.” The U.S. has enjoyed superior strength in economic innovation, R&D and technological know-how, but China is rapidly catching up.
In the move to decarbonization, solar power is a game-changer. As reported in the June 22 edition of the Economist, “Solar cells will in all likelihood be the single biggest source of electrical power on the planet by the mid-2030s. By the 2040s they may be the largest source not just of electricity but of all energy.”
Historically, the evolution of energy was from wood to coal to oil to gas with the cost of extraction and processing being limiting factors for speed, scale and price. Solar power has the potential to leapfrog such constraints. The sun shines everywhere, making solar a more available and equitable source of energy compared to fossil fuels for rich and poor countries alike.
The good news is the world is moving in the right direction to decarbonize the economy. The bad news is we are not rowing in the same direction and not nearly fast enough. While there is significant progress, much more needs to be done and much faster. And, there are bumps in the road.
China understands the move to a zero-emission global economy is a long march. They are positioned to take the long road and have real economic clout to be successful.
The U.S. stands at a crossroad in 2024.
Do we want to continue in a leadership role on a path of decarbonization, or ramp up fossil fuel consumption and GHG emissions? The choices could not be more stark, and the consequences for the nation and the world more significant.
The Biden administration has taken the most significant steps in history toward addressing climate change. These include expanding renewables, EVs and high tech computer chips. Donald Trump, the prospective Republican nominee, by contrast, has a hostile history toward clean energy and promises to again unleash the fossil fuel industry, resulting in more GHG emissions and an ever warming world.
In addition, the the U.S. Supreme Court’s recent “Chevron deference” decision torpedoed climate and Clean Air Act regulations. The decision will, in effect, promote fossil fuels, penalize renewables, and put the U.S. at a disadvantage on the world stage regarding leadership toward a clean energy economy and the environment.
We have some choices to make in November.
Paul Roberts is retired and lives in Everett. His career spans over five decades in infrastructure, economics and environmental policy including advising Washington cities on climate change and past Chair of the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency Board of Directors.
Eco-nomics
“Eco-nomics” is a series of articles exploring issues at the intersection of climate change and economics. Climate change (global warming) is caused by greenhouse gas emissions — carbon dioxide and methane chiefly — generated by human activities, primarily burning fossil fuels and agricultural practices. Global warming poses an existential threat to the planet. Successfully responding to this threat requires urgent actions — clear plans and actionable strategies — to rapidly reduce GHG emissions and adapt to climate-influenced events.
The Eco-nomics series, to be published every other week in The Herald, is focusing on mitigation and adaptation strategies viewed through the twin perspectives of science and economics. Find links to the series thus far at tinyurl.com/HeraldEco-nomics.
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