Weather becomes a factor
Published 8:21 pm Wednesday, November 28, 2007
As the calendar works its way past Thanksgiving and the thermometer dips into the teens, weather becomes a big factor in the NFL and can have dire consequences on your lineup.
Take Monday’s night’s mud-fest in Pittsburgh as exhibit A.
The Steelers and Dolphins struggled moving the ball all night in the muck and mire and nearly ended regulation in a 0-0 deadlock before a Jeff Reed field goal with 17 seconds remaining gave Pittsburgh a 3-0 win. A great game for defense, not so much for fantasy owners relying on Ben Roethlisberger, Willie Parker, or anyone else in the game (please tell me you didn’t start Ricky Williams).
The rule of thumb in fantasy is that as the weather gets worse — and the ball gets tougher to throw — running backs become that much more important. So as the fantasy playoffs get closer, take a look at the upcoming matchups and plan accordingly.
Who are some players with favorable matchups in the weather?
Answer: This week, Cincy players can only hope the playing surface at Heinz Field is better than it was Monday. My feeling is that the members of the Steelers field crew don’t ever want to look that bad again so they’ll do everything in their power to make Sunday’s field hold up to any deluge. Other than that most of the weather in Week 13 should be mild, except for in Philly, where the Seahawks may encounter some snow. In Week 14, though, some intriguing matchups could affect your roster. The Cardinals travel from sunny Arizona to (likely) rainy Seattle; the Raiders head to frosty Green Bay; and the Dolphins play in frigid Buffalo, where they are 1-4 since 2002. Also the Chiefs go into often-snowy Denver and Pittsburgh plays in New England, which actually has home games in Week 15 and 16, making Laurence Maroney an intriguing player. Speaking of Maroney …
Why does Bill Belichick hate Maroney?
Answer: Belichick didn’t have Maroney on the field for a single play for the entire first half Sunday against Philly. The explosive running back was healthy, Belichick just didn’t want to run the ball and opted for Kevin Faulk, who has better hands. In the second half, Maroney did sneak in his second touchdown in as many weeks, but finished with just 31 yards. Because he’s in the best offense in the NFL and there really aren’t any other good rushers for the Patriots (Heath Evans is not a running back), Maroney is already a player that could explode at any moment. Throw in the fact he has home games in inclement weather throughout the fantasy playoffs and Maroney’s potential becomes downright tantalizing. But beware, Belichick could pull the rug out from under you at any moment and throw the ball 100 times in a game. I say play him. I think the wily Belichick has been saving Maroney the whole time for this run through bad weather so he could ride him over the next five weeks.
How much can I expect from Kolby Smith from here on out?
Answer: Smith was great against The Raiders — who have the worst rush defense in NFL — last Sunday. He consistently ripped off runs of 5 yards or more and looked good. That said, Kyle Turley (in place of Chris Terry) will be blocking for him this Sunday against a Chargers defense that looked good against the run last week. And after a nice matchup against Denver in Week 14, Smith goes up against two top-10 run defenses in Tennessee and Detroit. My advice? Play Smith this Sunday only if you don’t have a more established, better option and give him a shot vs. Denver, but unless you’re desperate sit him in weeks 15 and 16.
What’s up with Shaun Alexander?
Answer: Alexander practiced on Wednesday and could be a go for Sunday. But what does that mean? The Seahawks have completely changed their offense in his absence and Maurice Morris has looked good filling in. Even if he is 100-percent healthy, Alexander would still split time with Morris this Sunday in Philadelphia and likely the rest of the season. At this point, owners can’t play Alexander until three things happen: He proves he’s healthy; the Seahawks play a terrible rush defense (think Oakland or Denver); and Maurice Morris is out of the picture, either injury or poor performance. Since none of those apply for Sunday’s game, sit Alexander with confidence.
Where can I find some help?
Answer: Play all your Packers and Cowboys, tonight’s game should be a high-scoring affair — even if nobody can see it. There should also be plenty of points in the Cardinals-Browns, two teams with little interest in playing defense. It appears Broncos RB Travis Henry is healthy, so he could be a sneaky play against the Raiders. If you’re desperate, look for John Beck to throw the first two touchdowns of his career Sunday against the Jets.
Didn’t get your question answered? Send all questions to aswaney@heraldnet.com.
