Mariners’ playoff hopes hinge on Julio and teammates’ bats

DETROIT — Julio Rodríguez was at his locker Wednesday afternoon, jovial and loose.

He had just returned Sunday after spending two-plus weeks on the injured list with a right ankle sprain. Now he was back in the lineup, intent on helping rescue his team’s playoff hopes before it’s too late.

So far, though, Rodríguez has only played designated hitter. He is not yet cleared to reclaim his spot in center field. He has still been visibly hobbled on the basepaths.

But make no mistake, Rodríguez wants to be here. Yearns to be active. Is energized to be playing.

“I mean, we’re all working for something special here,” Rodríguez told before an evening game against the Tigers. “I feel like sometimes you do have to make some sacrifices. Obviously you want to feel good all the time, but the sport we play that means so much to us, sometimes you just got to be out there and endure some things. I feel like that’s something that your teammates will appreciate from you.”

Then, in the eighth inning that night, came the sight no Mariners fan wanted to see: Rodríguez bent over, using his bat for support, a trainer jogging out onto the field.

Tigers reliever Will Vest threw a sinker off the inside portion of the plate. Rodríguez delicately scooted back. He made no sudden movement, hardly appeared to apply any pressure on his ankle. He felt a tweak anyway.

After a lengthy chat with manager Scott Servais and a trainer, Rodríguez remained in the game, though he was later pulled. Cameras captured him in the dugout, visibly frustrated.

A very clearly frustrated Julio Rodríguez in the dugout after exiting this game, alongside Mariners assistant athletic trainer Taylor Bennett… pic.twitter.com/o0WFNRCsSt

— Daniel Kramer (@DKramer_) August 15, 2024

Rodríguez did not appear to be seriously hurt, but his premature return from the IL always seemed like a risky, desperation-fueled gambit, and this mishap brought the stakes into heightened focus. After dropping three straight to the Tigers in Detroit, Seattle ended its day three games behind Houston in the American League West and 3 1/2 games out of a wild-card spot.

Servais indicated the Mariners still hope Rodríguez can return to center field at some point in their current three-city road trip. But for now, Rodríguez is clearly at less than his best, fighting it out and hoping to aid a lineup that ranks 27th in run scoring and needs every ounce of thump it can get.

“Is he ever gonna get back to 100 percent (this season)? I certainly hope so,” Servais said. “It takes time. Instead of waiting another two or three weeks until he is 100 percent, he wants to help the team any way he can. That’s how Julio is wired.”

With or without their franchise player, the Mariners need runs if they wish to complete their quest for October.

Back on June 18, the Mariners led the AL West by 10 games. The Astros were struggling and the defending champion Rangers looked lost.

By July 20, the Mariners had lost five straight, and the Astros seized the division lead.

“It’s been a little bit of a roller coaster,” Rodríguez said of his team’s season.

During that IL stint, Rodríguez watched as his team’s peak-and-valley ride continued. Seattle went 9-7 in his absence, but the Mariners lost a winnable series against the Tigers at home. Rodríguez felt the weight of each loss.

“I think of myself as somebody that can help a team win in different ways,” Rodríguez said, “and I just feel like every time that I’m not out there, maybe something different could have happened.”

Yet to hear the outfielder frame it Wednesday, he felt the Mariners were on the edge of a breakthrough. There have been fits and starts all season, but his return, coupled with the trade deadline acquisitions of Randy Arozerena and Justin Turner, had Rodríguez feeling all the pieces were close to finally clicking together.

“We’ve been through struggles,” he said. “That’s not a secret. But I feel like we all know how to handle that and put it in the past and continue to show up every day. … When you’re not doing the best at what you do but you’re still continuing to show up and working your ass off every single day, I feel like that’s something that never goes unnoticed. I believe in God a lot, and I feel like when you do things right, do things like that, it feels like at the end of the day it’s gonna shine. I feel like we’re in a really good spot right now competing for the playoffs.”

After the latest Rodríguez scare and a sweep in Detroit, however, those divine visions have quickly reverted to pressing questions.

Seattle has made it this far thanks largely to its pitching staff, one of the best and deepest in the game. The team’s 3.27 ERA among starters leads MLB by a longshot. Last season, however, lurks as a cautionary tale. The Mariners were baseball’s best team in July and August, then their young arms gave out in September. They missed the playoffs by one game.

In the series opener against Detroit, right-hander George Kirby — who entered the night in the thick of the AL Cy Young Award race — got tagged for 11 runs, six of them earned, in 3 2/3 innings.

In the following two games, Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller pitched a combined 14 scoreless innings. The Mariners lost both games.

Seattle needs its dominant pitching to hold. Moreso, it needs help from a lineup that has posted only a .206 batting average and .643 OPS at home.

The Mariners’ abode of T-Mobile Park consistently ranks as MLB’s least-forgiving park for hitters. The marine layer kills baseballs. The deep-gap dimensions do players no favors. Hitters have groused about the park’s angled batter’s eye. Some have still endured its challenges and thrived.

“I’m not gonna try to be like, ‘Oh, I wish I played somewhere else,’ or, ‘Oh, I’m facing this challenge here,’” Rodríguez said. “This is where I’m at and this is what I need to make work. That’s how you have to approach it because you’re not gonna hit the ball in T-Mobile Park and imagine you’re in Yankee Stadium and hit a home run. That’s not how things work.”

The home park may dampen the Mariners’ overall numbers, but it hardly tells the story of their woes. They are 37-26 at home, where their pitching plays as a distinct advantage. On the road, where their offensive ineptitude has been further exposed, the team’s OPS jumps to only .695. Their road record is 26-33.

This lineup is anchored by catcher Cal Raleigh, the team’s emotional center and, with 26 home runs, its primary source of power. Raleigh, though, carries a heavy load. He has played in 98 games the season, the most of any catcher in the league. He, too, is dinged up and playing at less than 100 percent.

J.P. Crawford, the team’s other energizing leader, is on the injured list with a hairline fracture in his wrist. While Victor Robles has become a surprise contributor and recently signed a two-year contract extension, Mitch Garver was acquired as a catcher/DH before the season but has hit only .167. Mitch Haniger is batting only .207. First baseman Ty France, who hit 20 homers for the 2022 team that ended a 21-year playoff drought, struggled to the point he was designated for assignment at the end of July.

The team added reinforcements at the trade deadline in Arozarena and Turner, but hopes of a bigger splash were dashed when one-time trade candidates like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Pete Alonso ended up staying put with their respective teams.

Even Rodríguez has not played to his superstar standards for most of the season. He struggled to a .206 average in June, then hit .375 in July before getting hurt.

As the Astros surged ahead in the West, Seattle’s franchise player watched with a nervous energy.

“I feel like everybody is putting the work in,” he said. “But you always feel like you have the responsibility. That was the hardest thing for me, being outside and feeling like I was leaving the team alone.”

The Mariners beat the Mets in Rodríguez’s first game back from the IL, but after forgoing a minor-league rehab assignment, Rodríguez went 0-for-5 with five strikeouts.

“He’s the guy,” Woo said of Rodríguez. “We follow him and his leadership, his energy. We know he’s battling right now, but to see him out there still putting together good ABs and knocking in key runs, means a lot. We know that he’s gonna keep going and getting better.

“We’re definitely gonna need him down the stretch.”

The Mariners entered Thursday with a team OPS of .669, ranking 28th out of 30 teams.

Per Baseball-reference, only four teams in MLB’s divisional era have ever made the playoffs with a lower OPS.

In baseball’s wild card era, the lowest OPS for a playoff team was the 2022 Tampa Bay Rays at .686.

Those numbers paint a bleak portrait and also clearly explain why Seattle’s most valuable player made this early return from the injured list, even if there’s a strong argument he returned too early for anyone’s good.

“Obviously that’s a big conversation for everybody,” Rodríguez said of his interactions with team management. “I wanted to make sure that whatever I got wasn’t going to get worse and that I was able to get to a point where if I start playing, that it will also start getting better, not jeopardizing it with too much pain or too many things that were actually gonna end up being bad for me.”

Medical staff has assured Servais that Rodríguez cannot worsen his ankle by playing in his current role. Servais said he’s leaning on information from the training staff to ease Rodríguez back into action.

Told the approach was still unusual, Rodríguez shrugged.

“I just feel like a lot of things went into it, and I just wanted to play,” he said. “That’s just how I am, and that played into it, too.”

Thursday in Detroit, Rodríguez got a day off after his ankle aggravation the night before. The Mariners went on to register only one hit in their third straight loss.

For the breakthrough Rodríguez prophesied to come to fruition, the team needs him at full strength.

Even then, it may not be enough.

“A lot of people can start doubting, all those things,” Rodríguez. “But I feel like we still believe we’re gonna be in the playoffs, and that’s what we’re all working for right now.”