Burke: Assessing dangers to democracy, knowing how to respond

Published 1:30 am Wednesday, July 2, 2025

By Tom Burke / Herald Columnist

As I’ve mentioned before, I’m a regular reader of “Naval Proceedings,” a beyond-authoritative monthly from the U.S. Naval Institute focusing on maritime global security and written by military professionals and civilian experts.

In it, a piece by Dr. William Bunn, a retired U.S. naval intelligence officer and assistant professor at the Joint Forces Staff College, explains how a national security threat can be “calculated” via a mathematical formula, namely:

Adversary’s Intent times Adversary’s Capability to Take Action equals Level of Threat.

While Dr. Bunn’s article was about Russian aggressiveness in Europe vs. the Pacific (which I packed away for future reference), I noted that the same formula could be used to calculate the danger of domestic threats: whether Proud-Boys type insurrections, Hamas-inspired terror, or Donald Trump’s assault on democracy and goal to become “America’s Autocrat.”

It seems clear the Proud Boys are a moderately low level of threat (“lone wolves” notwithstanding), medium high on intent but lower on capability. Hamas-type terrorists are a bit higher up, a high level of intent but unknown level of capability? (But with Kash Patel at the FBI, Kristi Noem at Homeland Security, Pam Bondi at Justice, and Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon, what’s to worry about foreign terrorists? !)

Donald Trump on the other hand is an off-the-charts, bona-fide threat: very high level of stated intent (to destroy American democratic norms, ignore the rule of law and trash-bin the Constitution); and the highest level of capability of any person on planet to do it; he is, after all, the president.

Now gentle reader, I could spend the next 500 words detailing all the things Trump has said and done to gain the top-of-the-list spot of actual threats to our democracy. But I won’t, mostly.

I will note such statements of intent as, “You’re not going to be a dictator, are you?” to which he replied, “No, no, no, other than day one.” Or when asked if he has to “uphold the Constitution,” and he said, “’I don’t know.”

Then there’s what he’s actually done, already, to void that Constitution by: moving to repeal birthright citizenship, illegally impose tariffs, or go to war without Congress’ consent (or even knowledge).

Or trash the rule of law by pardoning the 1,500 convicted-and-sentenced Jan. 6, 2021, domestic insurrectionists who tried to install the guy who lost by 7 million votes in the White House.

I could mention his drive to take over American higher education (attacks on Harvard and forcing the University of Virginia president to resign); his attacks on the media (suing The New York Times and Washington Post for just reporting the news); and his “retribution tour” using the apparatus of the federal Justice Department to personally punish anyone who disagrees with him.

But I want to go beyond that sort of stuff; it leads the news every day already.

Instead, let’s look at another scholar, political scientist Daniel Stockemer of the University of Ottawa, and his roadmap to dictatorship (from an article in Scientific American).

He posits six steps dictators take to achieve dominance (and I’m pointing out how Trump has checked off each box):

Establish social turmoil: Can you say MAGA, DOGE, “stick it to the libs,” or the Christian neo-fascist right Trump so ardently promotes?

Start a project of radical change: Trump has full-throatedly adopted as policy, via his implementation of the much-publicized Project 2025, the most radical change in American governance since the revolution of 1776;

Win a decisive electoral victory: Trump didn’t win a “decisive” victory in 2024, he simply lies about having a “mandate” hoping the uninformed will buy the lie;

Dismantle checks and balances on executive power: Which the Supreme Court has done with both their “absolute immunity” and “birthright citizenship” decisions and the Republican Congress has done by completely abandoning its primary functions of governance, oversight and control of the budget;

Fabricate emergencies: He’s created a score of faux emergencies ranging from non-existent immigrant invasions, to immigrants eating pets in parks, to tariffs, the need (not) for the Army and Marine Corps in Los Angles, and his totally bogus “national energy emergency”;

Securing long-term power: He’s clearly expressed his desire for a third term;

Infringement of basic rights: Where Trump is shipping people off to foreign jails without due process, claims the ability to cancel habeas corpus, gives primacy to Christianity over other religions, and has put his secret police in our streets, parks, homes, courts and places of business with their unmarked cars, military arms and body armor, no badges, no names and no warrants to sweep people off the streets and send them to Alligator Alcatraz, Louisiana gulags and private, foreign and no-oversight prisons.

So here, from another scholar, Timothy Snyder of Yale, is my top ten “how to fight back”:

Do not obey in advance;

Defend institutions such as the press, courts and civil society;

Be wary of paramilitaries;

Stand out, speak out and refuse to participate in harmful activities;

Believe in truth;

Investigate, avoid accepting information passively;

Be calm when the unthinkable arrives;

Be as courageous as you can; stand up for what you believe in, even when it’s difficult;

Give regularly to good causes, if you can;

Be a patriot and set a good example of what America means for the generations to come. They will need it.

Professor Snyder has a lot more to say and I suggest a great primary step in defending democracy is to read both his books – “On Tyranny” and “On Freedom.”

It’s not just worth your time, it’s worth your birthright.

Slava Ukrani.

Tom Burke’s email address is t.burke.column@gmail.com.