Welch: Millionaires tax is pie-crust promise; easily broken

Published 1:30 am Wednesday, February 18, 2026

By Todd Welch / Herald Columnist

When Senate Majority Leader Jamie Pedersen, D-Seattle, compared last year’s income tax ban to a “pie-crust promise, easily made and easily broken,” he unintentionally gave voters a reason to be skeptical about what comes next.

If the so-called millionaires tax, Senate Bill 6346, truly is a narrow tax that would not begin until 2029, why does it contain an emergency clause today that blocks a public referendum? Why prevent the people from voting on it, especially in a state where voters have rejected income taxes eleven consecutive times? Those are not the actions of a legislature confident in public support. They are the actions of a majority that does not want to risk a 12th rejection.

And make no mistake about the level of public opposition. More than 61,000 Washingtonians signed in as “con” for a public hearing on this bill, the largest response in state history. Imagine 61,000 people showing up to a hearing to say no and being ignored. That is not participatory government. That is a message to working families that their voices matter less than Olympia’s agenda.

Here in Snohomish County, we hear constant concern from elected Democrats about affordability. On that point, they are absolutely right. The cost of housing, fuel, groceries, child care and health care is squeezing the middle class and union households harder every year. But the policies coming out of Olympia are moving in the opposite direction.

Let me put this in real terms.

Think about a typical local household. One parent works in the trades or at Boeing. The other works in health care, education, public safety or the service sector. They bought a modest home years ago, commute every day, and are trying to set something aside for retirement while helping their kids through school. They are already paying higher gas taxes, higher property taxes, higher sales taxes on more services, and higher prices for everything because business taxes get passed on to consumers.

Now layer an income tax structure on top of that.

It may not hit them the first year. It may not hit them the second year. But the system being built in the legislation makes it inevitable that it will and the state Legislatures’ continued increased spending demonstrates that point.

You can see it in the bill itself. It creates a direct loophole in the state’s income tax ban by establishing a new tax under Title 82A that is exempt from that prohibition. It aligns Washington almost entirely with the federal Internal Revenue Code, installing the administrative machinery for a broad-based income tax. It defines a taxpayer simply as a natural person receiving income, while the million-dollar threshold is applied later as a standard deduction that can be lowered with a simple majority vote.

In other words, the structure is permanent. The income level is temporary.

We know how this story goes because we have seen it at the federal level and in nearly every other state with an income tax. It starts as a tax on the wealthy. Over time, as spending grows faster than revenue, the threshold drops and the middle class becomes the primary payer.

And spending is the real issue.

Since 2015, state spending has doubled, growing far faster than population and inflation. In 2025, lawmakers passed the largest package of tax increases in state history. Gas taxes went up again, increasing the cost of commuting for workers and the cost of delivering every product we buy. The business and occupation tax was raised on employers, even when they lose money, which means higher prices and fewer job opportunities. Sales tax was expanded to services where many middle-class and union jobs are concentrated. Capital gains and estate taxes were increased to some of the highest rates in the nation.

And even after all of that, the state still faces a deficit.

That is why this will not stay a “millionaires tax.” The math does not allow it.

For union workers and public employees, there is another piece that should not be ignored. The bill removes long-standing language that protected public pensions from being taxed under this new system. That matters because a pension is not a luxury. It is the deferred wages a worker earned over a lifetime. Imagine a retired firefighter, teacher or state employee who planned their future based on the promise that their pension would not be subject to a state income tax. Once the legal framework exists, that protection can disappear with a simple majority vote.

This is not about whether we value education, health care or public services. It is about whether we believe the government will control its spending or simply build a tax system that automatically reaches deeper into the middle class every time there is a shortfall.

Rep. Larry Springer, D-Kirkland, said the quiet part out loud when he was asked why the public should trust that this would not become an income tax on them by 2031. His answer was simple. You shouldn’t necessarily believe that. Just one year after putting the income tax ban into statute, the same Legislature is proposing one.

That is the core issue for voters in Snohomish County.

We are told our votes matter. We are told ballot measures reflect the will of the people. Yet when the outcome does not align with the agenda in Olympia, a new legal structure is created, a loophole is written into law, and an emergency clause is used to prevent the public from voting again.

That is not just a tax debate. That is a question of whether the voices of working families, union members and retirees still carry weight.

Pie-crust promises may be easy to break. Trust between voters and their elected officials is not so easily rebuilt. And once a statewide income tax structure is in place, it will not be someone else’s problem for long. It will belong to every household trying to make a future in Snohomish County.

Todd Welch is a Herald columnist covering local and state issues.