In between raindrops and snowflakes, Mike Hope strutted into Olympia in January where we chatted about his campaign for the state Legislature.
Hope, a Republican, is making a second run at Democrat Rep. Hans Dunshee.
He’s a Seattle police officer and a buff dude undoubtedly capable of defeating Dunshee in arm wrestling and outlifting him on the bench press.
But Dunshee’s muscle is at the ballot box, where voters elected him six of the last seven elections.
Two years ago Dunshee pinned a 54 percent to 46 percent loss on Hope in the 44th Legislative District.
How did Hope think it would turn out this time?
“I’ll say I’ll win 54-46.”
That was a bold prediction. This is not shaping up to be a promising election season for Republicans. Prevailing wisdom says a residual of distaste for GOP candidates in federal races may trickle into state contests and hurt challengers such as Hope.
Though Hope has raised more in cash this time, there are fewer dollars in his campaign. The House Republican Organizing Committee gave him $5,000, far less than the $30,000 it spent on mailers for him in 2004.
Hope’s tried to make up for it by knocking on a lot more doors.
He admits he’s still trailing. But Hope’s spirits are buoyed by what he claims is a poll showing when voters know he and Dunshee are the candidates, he is favored by a slight margin.
“When I talk to the people, they are not happy,” Hope said. “They are not happy with the federal government. They are not happy with the state government.”
He said he points out Dunshee’s length of service and asks them “if things have improved. I don’t say he’s a bad guy, just ineffective.”
Dunshee isn’t fretting. He’s raised $50,000 more than Hope, sent out more mailers and is running TV ads.
Not even the lampoon of him by Snohomish Councilman Larry Countryman is dimming his re-election chances, Dunshee said.
“It’s juvenile but I’m not worried,” Dunshee said.
He said when he knocks on doors, he finds that independent voters who traditionally swing back and forth between the parties’ candidates are leaning Democrat this cycle.
With all this going on, I asked Hope for an updated prediction.
“I know I’m the underdog,” he laughed. “Fifty plus one will be great for me.”
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Grethe Cammermeyer is a true long shot. She is running, but her name isn’t on the ballot.
The chairwoman for the Island County Democrats filed as an official write-in candidate against Republican Rep. Chris Strow in the 10th District.
She said Democrats told her they were frustrated with seeing no party member in the race so she decided to give them a name to write in.
“If I won it would be one of those amazing things,” she said.
Reporter Jerry Cornfield’s column on politics runs every Sunday. He can be heard at 7 a.m. Monday on the Morning Show on KSER 90.7 FM. He can be reached at 360-352-8623 or jcornfield@heraldnet.com.
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