News about an imminent ‘mini-ice age’ is trending, but it’s not true

“Scientists warn the sun will ‘go to sleep’ in 2030 and could cause temperatures to plummet,” blared one headline from this weekend.

“Earth heading for ‘mini ice age’ within 15 years,” warned another.

By Sunday evening, news that the Earth could be headed for period of bitter cold was trending on Facebook and whizzing across Twitter. The story – which has been reported everywhere from conservative blogs to the British press to the Weather Channel to the Huffington Post – was based on a recent presentation at the Royal Astronomical Society’s national meeting. Researchers studying sunspots found that solar activity is due to decline dramatically in the next few decades, reaching levels not seen since the 17th century, during a period known as the Maunder minimum. Back then, the decline coincided with what’s called the “Little Ice Age,” when Europe’s winters turned brutally cold, crops failed and rivers froze over.

Could another one be on its way?

Not quite.

Though University of Northumbria mathematics professor Valentina Zharkova, who led the sunspot research, did find that the magnetic waves that produce sunspots (which are associated with high levels of solar activity) are expected to counteract one another in an unusual way in the coming years, the press release about her research mentions nothing about how that will affect the Earth’s climate. Zharkova never even used the phrase “mini ice age.” Meanwhile, several other recent studies of a possible solar minimum have concluded that whatever climate effects the phenomenon may have will be dwarfed by the warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions.

ADVERTISEMENT
0 seconds of 0 secondsVolume 0%
Press shift question mark to access a list of keyboard shortcuts
00:00
00:00
00:00
 

Besides, that “Little Ice Age” that occurred during the Maunder minimum, it wasn’t so much a global ice age as a cold spell in Europe, and it may have been caused more by clouds of ash from volcanic eruptions than by fluctuations in solar activity.

(It’s also worth mentioning that Zharkova’s findings have not yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal, so her conclusions haven’t been vetted and refined.)

But those nuances were totally lost as stories about Zharkova’s research made the rounds on social media and in the press. Instead, we got 300-year-old engravings of Londoners cavorting on the frozen River Thames accompanied by predictions of food shortages and brutal cold – plus snarky tweets about not worrying about global warming anymore.

This isn’t the first time that a story about sunspots has turned into a story about climate change skepticism. John Casey, president of the Orlando-based Space and Science Research Corporation, which denies that global temperatures are rising, has written two books on the threat of impending “solar hibernation.” In 2011, when a series of studies concluded that the sun was heading into a cycle of unusually low activity, one headline cheered “Global Warming Be Damned, We Might Be Headed for a Mini Ice Age.”

For decades, scientists have known that solar activity fluctuates according to a roughly 11-year cycle. Sunspots – (relatively) cool, dark blotches on the sun’s surface – indicate areas of intense magnetic activity. But recently sunspots have been weakening, as has the sun’s magnetic field, leading scientists to conclude that the sun is heading into an especially quiet cycle termed the “grand solar minimum”

The new research from Zharkova argues that the solar cycles are regulated by not one but two magnetic waves fluctuating at slightly different frequencies, and that the unusually low activity can be explained by the waves getting far enough out of sync that they effectively cancel one another out.

Even if the upcoming decline in solar activity turns out to be as Zharkova’s suggests, scientists who study the sun say we can’t be sure how it will affect Earth’s climate.

“We have some interesting hints that solar activity is associated with climate, but we don’t understand the association,” Dean Pesnell, a NASA scientist who worked on one of the 2011 studies about the grand minimum, told National Geographic at the time.

Those studies that have found a correlation between solar activity and global temperatures predict that the drop in temperatures associated with a grand minimum will be much smaller than the warming that’s predicted to occur due to greenhouse gas emissions: A 2010 study in the journal Geophysical Letters predicted it could cause a global temperature decrease of about 0.3 degrees Celsius by 2100 – not nearly enough to offset the 1 to 5 degree increase anticipated from human-caused global warming.

As for that image of Londoners frolicking at “frost fairs” on the frozen-over Thames? Those had less to do with the activity of the sun than the activities of humans. Historical climatologist George Adamson told the BBC last year that the river used to freeze because of the architecture of the old London Bridge, whose arches prevented salty sea water from passing upriver and lowering its freezing point. The construction of a new bridge in the 19th century, and other landscape changes that made the river flow faster, brought an end to those festivals – less so than the end of the Maunder minimum.

“I’d be surprised if it froze again to the extent where we’d be able to allow large numbers of people on the Thames,” he said.

Talk to us

> Give us your news tips.

> Send us a letter to the editor.

> More Herald contact information.

More in Local News

Police Cmdr. Scott King answers questions about the Flock Safety license plate camera system on Thursday, June 5, 2025 in Mountlake Terrace, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Mountlake Terrace approves Flock camera system after public pushback

The council approved the $54,000 license plate camera system agreement by a vote of 5-2.

Cascadia College Earth and Environmental Sciences Professor Midori Sakura looks in the surrounding trees for wildlife at the North Creek Wetlands on Wednesday, June 4, 2025 in Bothell, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Cascadia College ecology students teach about the importance of wetlands

To wrap up the term, students took family and friends on a guided tour of the North Creek wetlands.

Community members gather for the dedication of the Oso Landslide Memorial following the ten-year remembrance of the slide on Friday, March 22, 2024, at the Oso Landslide Memorial in Oso, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
The Daily Herald garners 6 awards from regional journalism competition

The awards recognize the best in journalism from media outlets across Alaska, Idaho, Montana, Oregon and Washington.

Edmonds Mayor Mike Rosen goes through an informational slideshow about the current budget situation in Edmonds during a roundtable event at the Edmonds Waterfront Center on Monday, April 7, 2025 in Edmonds, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Edmonds mayor recommends $19M levy lid lift for November

The city’s biennial budget assumed a $6 million levy lid lift. The final levy amount is up to the City Council.

A firefighting helicopter carries a bucket of water from a nearby river to the Bolt Creek Fire on Saturday, Sep. 10, 2022, on U.S. 2 near Index, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
How Snohomish County property owners can prepare for wildfire season

Clean your roofs, gutters and flammable material while completing a 5-foot-buffer around your house.

(City of Everett)
Everett’s possible new stadium has a possible price tag

City staff said a stadium could be built for $82 million, lower than previous estimates. Bonds and private investment would pay for most of it.

Jennifer Humelo, right, hugs Art Cass outside of Full Life Care Snohomish County on Wednesday, May 28, 2025 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
‘I’ll lose everything’: Snohomish County’s only adult day health center to close

Full Life Care in Everett, which supports adults with disabilities, will shut its doors July 19 due to state funding challenges.

Herald staff photo by Michael O'Leary 070807
DREAMLINER - The first Boeing 787 is swarmed by the crowd attending the roll out of the plane in on July 8, 2007 at the Boeing assembly facility in Everett.
Plane in Air India crash tragedy was built in Everett

The Boeing 787 Dreamliner in the crash that killed more than 200 people was shipped from Everett to Air India in 2014.

Photo courtesy of Kristi Nebel
Folk duo Steve and Kristi Nebel will be among the musical acts performing at the Edmonds Arts Festival, which takes place Friday through Sunday.
Photo courtesy of Kristi Nebel
Folk duo Steve and Kristi Nebel will be among the musical acts performing at the Edmonds Arts Festival, which takes place Friday through Sunday.
Coming events in Snohomish County

Send calendar submissions for print and online to features@heraldnet.com. To ensure your… Continue reading

Everett council approves another $4.8M in stadium spending

The money will pay for more detailed design work and initial costs related to acquiring the land needed to build the project.

The Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction faces a lawsuit from a former employee alleging wrongful termination. (Photo by Bill Lucia/Washington State Standard)
Ex-Washington state worker claims she was fired over school board vote on trans athletes

Darby Kaikkonen has sued the Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction and Superintendent Chris Reykdal, alleging retaliation and wrongful termination.

Traffic moves north and south along I-5 through Everett on Tuesday, Aug. 29, 2023. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Snohomish County saw increase in traffic deaths in 2024

Even though fatalities fell statewide, 64 people died in Snohomish County traffic incidents in 2024, the most in nine years.

Support local journalism

If you value local news, make a gift now to support the trusted journalism you get in The Daily Herald. Donations processed in this system are not tax deductible.