EVERETT — Boeing expects air cargo traffic to more than double by 2033, with an annual growth rate of 4.7 percent, according to the company’s market forecast.
That means greater demand for freighter airplanes, especially big freighters such as the 777F and 747-8F.
The company released its biennial World Air Cargo Forecast at the International Air Cargo Forum and Exhibition earlier today.
The air cargo market has been down since the Great Recession hit in 2008, and it has recovered more slowly than passenger air travel.
But “we see strong signs of a recovery as air freight traffic levels continue to strengthen after several years of stagnation,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing at Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “The air cargo market is now growing at nearly the long-term rates.”
Weak trade growth and low interest rates have slowed air cargo traffic’s recovery.
In Boeing’s latest forecast, which it updates every other year, Asia-North America and Europe-Asia keep their top positions among air cargo markets in terms of total traffic. The fastest growth rates are expected in the Intra-Asia, domestic China and Asia-North America markets.
Boeing expects the world freighter fleet will need 840 new factory-built airplanes and 1,330 passenger-to-freighter-conversion airplanes. Those orders at list price are estimated to be worth $240 billion in 2014 dollars. However, airplane are often sold below the list price.
Slightly more than 52 percent of those new freighter deliveries are expected to replace retiring airplanes.
More than 70 percent of orders for new freighters are expected to be for large airplanes, such as the 777F or the 747-8F, according to Boeing’s forecast.
Most industry analysts expect demand for the large 747-8 is dwindling.
Dan Catchpole: 425-339-3454; dcatchpole@heraldnet.com; Twitter: @dcatchpole.
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