By The Herald Editorial Board

Long-range planning is a necessity, whether you’re talking about business, government or our personal lives. But those plans often are complicated by the fact that the further out in time one goes, the data and assumptions can be less certain.

That’s especially true in an era of change and disruption for transportation, and that’s the situation facing Everett Transit as it nears completion of its Long Range Plan. Everett Transit has spent more than a year as it drafted its 20-year plan, gathering thousands of comments from riders and residents to guide the community’s priorities for transit services.

Public transit will only grow in importance in Everett and throughout Snohomish County in coming years, as population and jobs continue to grow. But transportation needs and the ways we get around are changing.

Fewer of us are driving our own vehicles. In 1983, about 46 percent of 16-year-olds in the U.S. had a driver’s license; as of 2014, less than 25 percent were licensed to drive. Among 19-year-olds, 87 were licensed drivers in 1983; a figure that dropped to 69 percent by 2014.

Ride share services, such as Uber and Lyft, are increasing in use, particularly in urban areas. But so, too, is public transit, which since 1995 has increased by 34 percent nationwide, outpacing the 21 percent growth in population, according to the Public Transportation Association.

Everett and the county, during the next 20 years, will see changes in the transportation landscape, from the imminent start of regular commercial airline service at Paine Field, the expansion of Community Transit’s Swift Bus commuter routes and the arrival of Sound Transit’s Link light rail service in Lynnwood by 2024 and in Everett by the mid ’30s.

Everett Transit, which now sees about 6,500 daily boardings on its 42 buses and 11 fixed routes, could serve as many as 17,000 daily boardings by 2040, if growth figures hit the high end of projections, with Everett adding 60 percent to its current population of 109,000 as well as 45,000 new jobs and 25,000 new homes.

The challenge with public transporation, like other government services, is in providing that service within the revenue it has. About 70 percent of Everett Transit is supported by sales tax revenue; another 7 percent is generated by fares.

While Everett Transit — which marks its 50th year in 2019 — completes its 20-year plan, it will have to make more immediate changes to keep its expenses from exceeding revenue. The 20-year plan and recent discussions among Everett City Council members, show that the transit agency could be running $1.6 million in the red by 2020.

That’s an immediate need to address now, but the plan shows it as an roadblock to service over the next 20 years.

Avoiding the more immediate red ink will be addressed in a process separate from the long-range planning, said Sabina Popa, a program manager with Everett Transit, at a recent Transit Advisory Committee. The corrections are likely to include changes to routes and schedules to improve efficiency, reduce the size of the bus fleet and a possible increase from the current $1 fare.

“We’re not looking very good in the next few years,” Popa told The Herald last week. “What we need to do is not just cut service hours but restructure the routes to be more efficient.”

But longer term, city and transit officials will need to consider a range of cost-cutting measures and additional revenue sources. Among suggestions in the 20-year plan:

An increase in the city’s sales tax for transit, currently six-tenths of a cent, to nine-tenths of a cent;

Reducing paratransit service to serve those with disabilities only, rather than the current service, which is open to all those 65 and older;

Seeking new grant sources of funding, particularly for bus and vehicle purchases; and

Advertising and other private partnerships.

Along with those, Everett Transit also should consider more coordination on routes and service with Community Transit, which is also considering a fare increase as it prepares to add to its bus rapid transit lines.

And the city should give some thought to recent innovations, such as a hybrid of ride share and paratransit services. Arlington, Texas, has launched a one-year pilot project — mostly supported by a federal grant — with a fleet of vans that are dispatched by the ridesharing app, Via, with riders charged a $3 fare. There remain funding challenges for such services. A similar on-demand service, Bridj, in Boston, Washington, D.C., and Kansas City, shut down last year because of a lack of financial support.

It can be hard to guess what transportation is going to look like in 20 years. A few of use are still holding out for flying cars. But the constant now and in the future is the need for all us to get from home to work, school, appointments, shopping and entertainment.

Public transportation, because of its efficiency and lower impact on the environment, will serve that need.

We need to help shape it.

Everett Transit 20-year plan

Everett Transit’s Long Range Plan is available online at tinyurl.com/ET20Plan.

Before submission to the Everett City Council, the draft plan gets a final public review at a meeting of the Council of Neighborhoods, 4:30 p.m., March 26, City Hall, 2930 Wetmore, Everett.

A brief survey and comments can be submitted until March 30 at tinyurl.com/ET20survey.