SERIES HISTORY
Monday’s game is the 13th meeting between the Seahawks and the Bills. Seattle holds a 7-5 series lead, including a 50-17 victory the last time the teams met — in 2012 in a game that was played in Toronto. The teams have played just once at CenturyLink Field, that coming back in 2004 when the Bills trounced the Seahawks 38-9. However, the Seahawks are 5-3 against Buffalo in games played in Seattle, including contests at the Kingdome and Husky Stadium.
KEY MATCHUP
The Seahawks’ run offense vs. the Bills’ run defense
Ever since Pete Carroll became Seattle’s head coach in 2010 the Seahawks’ offense has been best known for its power running game. Behind bruising running back Marshawn Lynch, the Seahawks averaged 153.1 yards rushing per contest from 2012-15, which was the most in the NFL.
However, things have changed drastically this season. Lynch retired, his replacement Thomas Rawls has been injured most of the season, and Seattle’s running game has been stuck in the mud. The Seahawks are averaging just 81.4 yards on the ground per game this season, which ranks 28th in the league. Christine Michael, who’s served as the primary ball carrier, has decent numbers (446 yards, 4.2 yards per carry), but the luster is beginning to wear off as he hasn’t had a big game since Week 3. It’s been even worse the past four games as Seattle has managed just 66 yards rushing per game and less than three yards per carry.
A big part of the problem has been the lack of involvement by quarterback Russell Wilson in the running game. The previous four seasons Wilson averaged 607.5 yards on the ground, both from designed runs and from scrambling. However, hindered by ankle and knee injuries much of this season, Wilson has just 44 yards on 25 carries. But Wilson insists his injuries continue to improve, and the Seahawks have hinted at getting Wilson back involved in the run game.
Is Buffalo’s run defense one against which Seattle’s running game can get back on track? The Bills come into the game allowing 118.4 yards per game on the ground, which ranks 25th in the NFL. That includes allowing Miami’s Jay Ajayi to go off for 214 yards on 29 carries two weeks ago in a 28-25 loss. That indicates the Seahawks may be able to gain some traction on the ground against the Bills.
However, that game may have been an anomaly. Take out the game against Miami and Buffalo’s run defense has been stout, allowing just one 100-yard rusher — and the New York Jets’ Matt Forte needed 30 carries to reach exactly 100 yards. Nose tackle Marcell Dareus is out injured, but the Bills still feature four-time Pro Bowler Kyle Williams in the interior of their defensive line to make running the ball difficult.
If Seattle is to get its sputtering offense going, it needs to win this matchup.
KEY NUMBER
6-0 The Seahawks’ record on Monday Night Football since Pete Carroll became head coach in 2010. Overall Seattle has won 10 straight games on Monday night, which is the second-longest winning streak in Monday night history.
IMPORTANT INJURIES
Seahawks — Seattle will be without strong safety Kam Chancellor (groin) for the fourth straight game as he was unable to make it through the week. With defensive end Michael Bennett (knee) recovering from surgery, it means the Seahawks are without two of their defensive stars. Left tackle Bradley Sowell (knee) is listed as questionable, but is not expected to play. Running back Thomas Rawls (fibula) and tight end Luke Willson (knee) are longer-term absentees.
Bills — The interior of Buffalo’s defensive line will be short-handed with defensive tackles Marcell Dareus (groin) and Corbin Bryant (shoulder) both ruled out. Running back LeSean McCoy (hamstring) missed last week’s game and is listed as questionable, but he’s expected to play. No. 1 receiver Sammy Watkins (foot) remains on injured reserve, but the Bills expect to get speedy receiver Marquise Goodwin (concussion) back this week.
BREAK IT DOWN
The Seahawks will win if they …
Truly have a healthier Russell Wilson. Every week Wilson and Seattle coach Pete Carroll say Wilson’s health has improved. Yet every week, when game time arrives, the Seahawks’ quarterback still looks less than his usual self. But the ankle braces have been shed and the knee brace is smaller, so maybe this is the week Wilson shows some of his old explosion with his legs.
Sustain some drives. Seattle has scored just one touchdown on its past 23 offensive possessions, and in the Seahawks’ past two games they’ve gone three-and-out on 41 percent of their drives (9-of-22). The result is Seattle’s defense has had heavy workloads, spending 46-plus minutes on the field two weeks ago against Arizona and 36-plus minutes last week against New Orleans. The Seahawks need to sustain some drives just to give the defense a breather.
Prevent Tyrod Taylor from doing damage with his legs. Buffalo’s quarterback has put up pedestrian passing numbers this season, but he’s been electric running the ball as he leads all QBs in rushing yards with 319, averaging a whopping 6.9 yards per carry. The Seahawks must make Taylor beat them with his arm as opposed to his legs.
The Bills will win if they …
Get a healthy performance from LeSean McCoy. Buffalo’s star running back is in the midst of an excellent season, but he missed last week’s 41-25 loss to the New England Patriots because of a hamstring injury. McCoy is expected to return this week, and he could be the difference as the Bills are 4-0 in games McCoy gained 100-plus yards from scrimmage and 0-4 in games in which he didn’t.
Receive a contribution from Percy Harvin. The former Seahawks receiver came out of retirement this week to re-join Buffalo. The Bills have played down the amount Harvin will be able to contribute, but with a rash of injuries at receiver, Harvin may be pressed into quick duty, and with his speed he’s capable of being a game breaker.
Prevent explosive plays. The Seahawks pride themselves on their explosive offensive plays, but those have been down this season. Through seven games Seattle has just 24 plays of 20 yards or more (3.4 per game) after having 72 last season (4.5 per game). The lack of explosive plays has hindered the Seahawks the past two weeks, and Buffalo should take note of that fact.
PICK
Seahawks 23, Bills 13
While Seattle has struggled offensively, the Seahawks have a lot of things going for them. They’re coming back home, where they’re 30-5 since Russell Wilson became the starting quarterback. They’re playing on Monday night, a day of the week they haven’t lost on since 2004. And coach Pete Carroll believes the team is on the cusp of an offensive turnaround. Even if that doesn’t happen, Buffalo’s offense probably doesn’t have enough to give Seattle’s defense too much trouble.
Nick Patterson. Herald Writer
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