EVERETT — This season’s primary could prove a fun exercise for reading the political tea leaves, even for some races where both candidates automatically advance to the November election.
Take the race between incumbent Democrat Aaron Reardon and Republican Mike Hope for Snohomish County executive.
Reardon held a comfortable lead of 52.7 percent on Tuesday night. But ask Hope, and his 47 percent puts him in good shape for the fall.
“We’re right exactly where we thought we would be on the first night, so we’re quite pleased,” Hope said.
Reardon said he was surprised his opponent didn’t do better since Hope has spent more campaign cash in the primary. The numbers give no sign that independent voters are buying into Hope’s anti-incumbent message either, Reardon said.
In any event, Reardon cautioned that, “It’s in the middle of August, so drawing any conclusions even when the votes are tallied is a stretch.”
There’s likely to be much tallying for the next several days and that could shift the votes in any direction. The Auditor’s Office reported about 18.7 percent of ballots returned Tuesday evening. Auditor Carolyn Weikel earlier projected turnout of about 29 percent.
Reardon is trying for his third term in office. Hope is Seattle police officer who is in his second term in the state House. Partisan offices appear on the top-two primary ballot even if both candidates advance automatically.
Edmonds City Councilman D.J. Wilson, a Democrat who runs a public affairs consulting company, said he expected Reardon to be winning on primary night. But the question was by how much.
“If it’s 55 (percent) or higher, people will probably call it a done deal,” Wilson said.
For Hope, the primary might be more about fundraising than winning at this stage. He reported raising $98,941.35 and spending $92,227.18, compared to $194,789.25 and $75,619.63, respectively, for Reardon.
“If you’re coming to within a few points that’s really going to strengthen your hand when it comes to viability and when you’re going to donors,” said Todd Donovan, a political science professor at Western Washington University.
The executive’s race is important for its implications to next year’s governor’s race, Wilson said. The state match-up is expected to be a close contest between state Attorney General Rob McKenna and Democratic U.S. Rep. Jay Inslee.
He advised looking to the returns for Edmonds mayor and County Council District 3 covering Edmonds, Lynnwood and Woodway. If the Republican-backed candidates do well in those races, it’s a good sign for the GOP in the executive race this fall and the governor’s race in 2012.
“So the big story this year in Snohomish County is what’s happening in Edmonds,” he said.
But the results in those two races were mixed.
In the council race, Democrat Stephanie Wright was leading with 59.6 percent of the vote to Republican Kathy Vaughn’s 40.2 percent.
Wright, a former Lynnwood City Council member and school librarian, was appointed to her job last year. Vaughn has served as a Snohomish County PUD commissioner since the mid-1990s and owns a Lynnwood mortgage company.
In the Edmonds mayor’s race, Dave Earling was beating appointed Mayor Mike Cooper in initial returns. The position is nonpartisan, but Cooper is a well-known Democrat while Earling is a Republican who lost to Reardon in the 2003 executive race. They were ahead of third candidate, Roger Hertrich.
Incumbents held wider leads in two other county races that will weed out one person each for the Nov. 8 election.
In the nonpartisan race for county assessor, incumbent Cindy Portmann had garnered about 55.8 percent of the votes. Chris Vallo was second with 22.6 percent and Betty DeLay third with 19.8 percent.
In the County Council’s District 3, incumbent Democrat Brian Sullivan held a commanding 67.4 percent of the vote. Republican Glen Sayes was the runner-up so far, with 22.7 percent and Jason Mills third with 9.6 percent. The district covers Everett and Mukilteo.
Noah Haglund: 425-339-3465, nhaglund@heraldnet.com.
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