SEATTLE — Even as the Seattle Mariners hold first place in the AL West with Memorial Day fast approaching, one question — one concern, really — continues to simmer.
How secure is the King’s crown?
The numbers on Felix Hernandez are studied and debated with growing intensity. Analytics is baseball’s cold science, and there is a growing chill gathering around the Mariners’ long-time ace.
The 2.21 earned-run average he carries into Friday’s start against Minnesota at Safeco Field ranks second in the American League and would be the second-best mark of his 12-year career. But Hernandez’s walks are up and his strikeouts are down. His velocity is down — and down significantly from his peak years — along with (no surprise) his swing-and-miss rate. He appears increasingly reliant on off-speed pitches.
These numbers and others suggest his 2.21 ERA is not sustainable, that a correction to the analytics-projected norm is inevitable and likely will be harsh when it occurs.
Hernandez rejects these concerns.
No surprise there. He is prideful to the core, a quality that has long fueled his intensity and success. But when he scoffs that, “I’m not worried about velocity. I’m just going to go out there and have fun,” few believe him.
Even among the Mariners.
Club officials privately worry that when Hernandez sees the scoreboard radar readings, he reacts with wounded pride by trying to throw harder. That often proves counterproductive because it affects his command. Hernandez seemed to validate these concerns after his last start — which, by the way, was six scoreless innings in a 4-0 victory at Cincinnati — by pointedly disputing the radar readings on his two-seam fastball.
“I was happy with the stuff,” he said even while acknowledging that, at 104 pitches, he wasn’t particularly efficient. “Good changeup. Good fastball. They keep putting ‘sinkers’ out there (on the scoreboard). That’s not my sinker. It’s a changeup.”
Even so, Hernandez is making concessions this season to his age (30) and, more importantly, to the toll on his arm from a heavy workload throughout his career. Specifically, he is again throwing bullpen sessions between starts.
It seems to be helping.
His fastball has ticked up a notch or two in recent starts. Instead of 89-90 mph, Hernandez now tends to sit at 91-92 mph. While that’s not close to the mid-to-upper 90s neighborhood he once inhabited — is it good enough?
The News Tribune talked to three veteran scouts from opposing clubs after Hernandez’s recent starts to get their assessments. Two of those scouts are former pitchers. One was a power pitcher who had to adjust toward the end of his career.
Granted anonymity, all three were frank in their eye-test evaluations. In general, they see a great pitcher in transition, which mirrors the general analytical assessment. But the scouts also see a pitcher with the tools to remain dominant.
“Look, he’s a different pitcher now,” one said. “He may not realize it, but he needs to adjust. And that’s tough to admit to yourself. It was hard for me, and I wasn’t close to his level. For so long, he could just rear back and fire. Not worry so much about location. That works a lot better at 97 (mph) or even 94 than at 90. You miss at 97, you can still win. At 90? Not so much.
“He’s got to pitch now. Not just throw. He’s got the stuff to do it, but he needs to adjust. Sometimes, I see him, and I think he gets it. But there are times, especially when he gets in a jam, where he’s all ‘more-is-better.’”
Said another scout: “I know his velocity is down, but he needs to throw his fastball more. He’s stopped throwing it. Maybe he doesn’t trust it, but he gets off-speed happy. And his off-speed stuff is really good, but it needs the fastball.
“The key, though, is he needs to spot that fastball. He can’t play that macho game anymore. A lot of guys when they get to that stage don’t have the stuff to adjust. He does. His breaking stuff is good. His changeup is dynamite.
“But he needs to spot the fastball to make them work.”
The non-pitcher in the group added: “What I love about his changeup is you can’t tell it’s a changeup until it’s too late. It comes in the with same spin as his fastball, and it looks fat. Then you swing, and the bottom drops out.
“It’s just nasty. Unhittable. But it works because you think it’s the fastball. If he doesn’t throw the fastball, it’s a lot less effective.”
The second scout noted: “One thing that has always separated Felix from the pack is his fire. He competes like a son-of-a-(gun). That (quality) is a lot rarer than people think.
“He doesn’t need to lose that just because he’s not the fastest gunslinger in the West anymore. You redirect it. Instead of the macho boost you get from blowing someone away, you out-think the other guy. “You beat him with your brains and your arm instead of just your arm.”
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