Good morning class, and welcome to Hockey 101. Today’s lesson: trade algebra.
With the WHL trade deadline landing Tuesday, and with the Everett Silvertips already making one blockbuster deal and possibly prepared to make another, I thought this would be an appropriate time to illustrate the mathematics behind a big trade. Oftentimes the full impact of a big WHL trade can’t be felt until several years down the line, because it usually involves trading a player who’s currently a star in exchange for assets (prospects, draft picks) that won’t mature until well into the future.
Everett, which went into the weekend with the second-best winning percentage in the WHL, did just this by acquiring experienced defenseman Aaron Irving from the Edmonton Oil Kings last Wednesday to bolster its chances of winning a championship this season, while surrendering a lucrative package (including 16-year-old center Brett Kemp and a first-round pick in the 2018 bantam draft) that could pay off big for the Oil Kings down the road. It often takes a long time to determine whether these type of trades were worth it.
To illustrate the mathematics of these equations let’s examine the case of Kyle Beach, the central figure of a trade that is still having its effects felt eight years later.
The Silvertips were floundering as the trade deadline approached in the 2008-09 season. Beach was Everett’s star, an 18-year-old power forward capable of dominating games both with his lethal shot and by dishing out physical punishment. The previous summer he was selected 11th overall in the NHL draft by the Chicago Blackhawks.
However, Beach’s talent came with a price. The temperamental Beach was never far from controversy, whether it was getting into confrontations with opponents or falling afoul of the officials. By January of 2009 then-Everett general manager Doug Soetaert decided Beach was more trouble than he was worth, engineering a trade designed to set the Tips up for the future.
Beach was traded to Lethbridge for what amounted to two first-round bantam picks. The full deal saw Everett send Beach and defenseman Mike Alexander to the Hurricanes for winger Dan Iwanski, defenseman Alex Theriau (a 16-year-old former first-round bantam pick) and a first rounder in 2009. Alexander left Lethbridge after a couple days, so a fifth-round pick in 2009 was substituted as Alexander returned to the Tips. Everett ended up using the first-round pick on defenseman Seth Jones (more on him later), while Lethbridge used the fifth-rounder on winger Mitch Guiel, who played just 15 games in the WHL. It remains arguably the biggest trade in franchise history.
The equation: Out: Beach, fifth-rounder (Guiel); In: Iwanski, Theriau, first-rounder (Jones).
Two years later at the trade deadline the Tips pulled off another big deal involving one of the primary pieces in the original Beach deal, sending Theriau and point-a-game winger Kellan Tochkin to Medicine Hat in exchange for solid two-way forward Ryan Harrison and a second-round bantam pick in 2011 that the team used on future captain Dawson Leedahl.
The equation: Out: Beach, fifth-rounder (Guiel), Tochkin; In: Iwanski, first-rounder (Jones), Harrison, second-rounder (Leedahl). The math has Theriau, by virtue of being on both sides of the equation, cancelling himself out.
Now back to Jones, who became quite the saga in Everett. The uber-talented defenseman and son of former NBA player Popeye Jones was courted by the Tips for three years. Just as Everett seemed to have Jones committed for his 18-year-old season, Soetaert was fired. In the wake of Soetaert’s firing Jones announced he wouldn’t play for Everett, and the Tips found themselves compelled to trade his rights to Portland in May of 2012 in exchange for defensemen Ben Betker and Reece Willcox and prospect forwards Tyler Sandhu and Mitch Skapski. Betker became a stalwart as an overager in Everett’s surprise U.S. Division-title season in 2014-15, while Willcox never reported.
The equation: Out: Beach, fifth-rounder (Guiel), Tochkin; In: Iwanski, Harrison, second-rounder (Leedahl), Betker, Willcox, Sandhu, Skapski.
Skapski never made an impact in Everett, and he was dealt to Victoria in October of 2013 for defenseman Mark Nerland, who didn’t last long on the Tips’ 50-player protected list. Sandhu, after a promising 16-year-old season, plateaued in Everett and was sent to Red Deer in October of 2014 for a pair of fourth-round picks used on defenseman Gianni Fairbrother in 2015 and winger Reece Vitelli in 2016.
The equation: Out: Beach, fifth-rounder (Guiel), Tochkin; In: Iwanski, Harrison, second-rounder (Leedahl), Betker, Willcox, Nerland, fourth-rounder (Fairbrother), fourth-rounder (Vitelli).
Last offseason Leedahl, after four seasons in Everett, asked for a trade for his last go-around in the WHL. The Tips accommodated in a complicated deal with Regina that also involved the rights to superstar prospect Tyson Jost. Jost’s part of the deal only kicks in if he reports to the Pats, which hasn’t happened yet, so that can be disregarded. The Leedahl portion of the trade saw the Tips receiving winger Sean Richards and a fourth-round pick in 2017.
The equation: Out: Beach, fifth-rounder (Guiel), Tochkin; In: Iwanski, Harrison, Betker, Willcox, Nerland, fourth-rounder (Fairbrother), fourt- rounder (Vitelli), Richards, fourth-rounder.
In the final analysis, did the Silvertips receive equal value for Kyle Beach?
If we boil the equation down to players who were relevant, Everett gave up a pair of high-scoring forwards (Beach, Tochkin) in exchange for a quality defenseman (Betker), a handful of solid forwards (Iwanski, Harrison, Richards), a pair of players who are still viable prospects (Fairbrother, Vitelli), and a fourth-rounder yet to be used. To conduct a full analysis one would need to make a more thorough investigation into the age, number of years played and production of each piece, but this remains a good estimation. Whether that constitutes an even exchange is for each to determine on his or her own.
And this equation isn’t complete yet. Richards is only 18, we don’t know what Fairbrother and Vitelli will become, and the 2017 fourth-rounder could turn into something, too. These players could be involved in future trades. Eight years have passed and the Beach-trade tree is still growing.
So don’t make a snap judgment about which side got the best of the Irving trade, or any other deal the Silvertips may execute. There’s no telling how far the tendrils of those trades will weave into the future.
For more on the Seattle sports scene, check out Nick Patterson’s Seattle Sidelines blog at www.heraldnet.com/tag/seattle-sidelines, or follow him on Twitter at @NickHPatterson.
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