By Paul Roberts / For The Herald
If you don’t measure, you can’t manage
Business management expert Peter Drucker said: “You can’t manage what you don’t measure.” This is an axiom for business, engineering, science and more.
The reverse is the core of the Trump administration’s war on efforts addressing climate change. They are choosing to stop measuring things associated with climate change and reduce funding for disaster response. It’s a policy based on willful ignorance, designed to reduce public attention on climate change and curtail the federal response to emergencies such as heat, fires, floods, and hurricanes.
Funding cuts are impacting climate science at all agencies and reducing disaster preparedness and emergency responses (“Loss of research funds threat to climate resilence,” The Herald, May 17). For example, the Associated Press reports the administration plans to cancel the National Climate Assessment. The National Weather Service is reducing staffing in local field offices, with vacancies ranging from 15 percent to 35 percent. Bloomberg reports the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has announced it will “retire” its popular database of climate and “billion-dollar” weather disasters and are canceling grants that identify future risks, claiming it stokes “climate anxiety.” The administration is shifting FEMA’s emergency response to state and local governments who have not prepared or budgeted for such changes (“Communities need FEMA’s help to rebuild after disaster,” The Herald, May 3). All this comes as we enter wildfire and hurricane seasons.
The Economist magazine described the cuts to climate science as vicious, stating: “Savage cuts on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration mean worse weather-forcasting making it harder for farmers to know when to plant crops, and for local authorities to prepare for natural disasters.”
The heads of agencies responsible for climate science have stated they believe they are fighting a “woke” agenda in the climate science community and that climate change is being exaggerated for political gain. Given the reality of today’s changing climate, including increasing extreme heat, fires and storms, they are asleep at the switch.
The administration’s strategy, outlined in Project 2025, is designed to limit and control information and downplay the significance of real impacts. They have described climate change as “mild and manageable.” It is straight from the public relations playbook of the oil and gas industry responsible for a warming plant. It ignores a growing number of deadly disasters such as fires in Los Angeles and Lahaina, heat events in the Pacific Northwest, and hurricanes devastating the Gulf Coast and southeast as far north as Asheville, N.C. and New York. The consequences will be bad for local communities, the nation and the world.
Planetary physics are unaffected by a misguided war on climate science. Climate-related impacts are continuing with increasing frequency, intensity and costs in the U.S. and across the globe.
Billion-dollar climate related events — counted or not — are happening at an increasing rate, more than one per month. According to NOAA, in 2023 there were 28 separate weather and climate disasters with damages of $1 billion or more. The total cost in 2023 was $94.8 billion. Gathering and reporting this data is part of what will end under this administration.
The insurance industry is not asleep at the switch. They are in the business of making a profit by accurately assessing risk and insuring against loss. That’s increasingly difficult in a rapidly changing environment due to climate change. In L.A. alone, wildfire claims could exceed $45 billion. Fire and storm damage around the U.S. have insurance companies evaluating whether to cancel policies, raise rates or abandon markets altogether. Re-insurance companies — those who insure insurance companies — are also evaluating their changing risk profiles and growing liabilities due to climate change.
As insurance costs rise with no clear end in sight, home owners and mortgage lenders face higher costs and greater financial uncertainty. Climate change magnifies uncertainty for businesses, homeowners, individuals and the environment. The uncertainty and growing risks created by an unstable climate threaten the financial stability of the United States.
Willful ignorance, is a poor foundation for public policy. It is reckless and expensive in terms of lives and property.
The past 10 years have been the hottest ever recorded in human history. We have built a world based on a climate that is no longer a reliable predictor of the future. Emergency management planning must be revised to reflect this new and changing environment. This is hardly the time to abandon climate science, reporting climate data or funding for natural disasters.
Paul Roberts is retired and lives in Everett. His career spans over five decades in infrastructure, economics and environmental policy including advising Washington cities on climate change and past chair of the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency Board of Directors.
Eco-nomics
“Eco-nomics” is a series of articles exploring issues at the intersection of climate change and economics. Climate change (global warming) is caused by greenhouse gas emissions — carbon dioxide and methane chiefly — generated by human activities, primarily burning fossil fuels and agricultural practices. Global warming poses an existential threat to the planet. Successfully responding to this threat requires urgent actions — clear plans and actionable strategies — to rapidly reduce GHG emissions and adapt to climate-influenced events.
The Eco-nomics series focuses on mitigation and adaptation strategies viewed through the twin perspectives of science and economics. Find links to the series thus far at tinyurl.com/HeraldEco-nomics.
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