EVERETT – They’re just a little late to the party.
But there’s still plenty of fun to be had by Airbus and its A350 Extra Wide Body jet.
“We have to admit that Boeing got a little bit of a head start on us,” said Simon Pickup, director of business operations for Airbus, at an aerospace conference recently.
“There’s still 90 percent of the market out there to play for,” he said.
That depends on whom you ask and in which part of the market the A350 XWB will compete.
Initially, most industry watchers thought Airbus’ A350 XWB would challenge the Boeing Co.’s new 787 Dreamliner, scheduled for its first flight this year. The A350 resembles the Dreamliner in its greater reliance on composite materials and its fuel efficiency. But the 200- to 300-seat 787 wasn’t the Boeing plane that Airbus’ Pickup focused on when he discussed the A350’s future last week.
“Certainly, it’s going to be a step ahead of the 777 and the A340,” Pickup said.
Roughly a decade ago, Airbus’ A340 hit the market two years before Boeing’s 777, which seats 300 to 400 passengers. But as Randy Baseler, Boeing’s vice-president of commercial airplane marketing, points out on his Web log, Boeing made significant technological advances – two engines versus four – with its 777. The A340 has limped along the last few years, picking up roughly a quarter of the orders that Boeing’s 777 did in 2006.
Pickup suggested that Airbus’ A350 XWB, with seating for 250 to 350 people, would eventually replace its A340.
Compared with the 787 Dreamliner, Pickup said, “we’ve gone for a larger machine” with greater revenue-generating capacity.
Over the next 20 years, Airbus officials believe, airlines will buy increasingly larger jets, with the possible exception of single-aisle aircraft.
Both Boeing and industry analyst Richard Aboulafia, who spoke at the same conference as Pickup, disagree with Airbus’ assessment.
“Globally, planes are getting smaller,” Aboulafia said. “As soon as people can adapt to longer range, smaller planes, they’re doing it.”
The small to intermediate twin-aisle market segment is not only the fastest growing but also the most profitable, Aboulafia said. He suspects this segment makes up about 45 percent of the market compared with Airbus’ projection of 25 percent.
In their global sales forecast, Boeing estimates that airlines will buy 3,500 jets over the next 20 years in the 200- to 300-seat range. The company expects to capture more than half of those orders.
Boeing’s Baseler notes on his blog that 1,450 orders will be placed in the next 10 years for twin-aisle planes. Airbus essentially will miss out on a good share of those, competing only with its 250- to 300-seat A330 until the A350 enters service. The first A350 XWB – the A350-900 – will enter into service in 2013, with the A350-800 following in 2014 and the A350-1000 in 2015.
Pickup noted that Airbus has won nearly 300 orders for the A330 since Boeing launched its Dreamliner. In that time, Boeing has snagged almost 500 orders for the 787.
“The A330, I think, will live on for many years,” Pickup said.
However, for the next five years, Boeing will have two viable planes – the 777 and the 787 – in the 200- to 400-seat market. Airbus will have only the A330 and the ailing A340.
By 2014, Boeing will reach its peak share – an estimated 72 percent – in the twin-aisle market segment, Aboulafia said.
Aboulafia estimates that the 787 program will be worth more than $120 billion over the next 10 years. Since the third member of the A350 XWB program won’t enter service until 2015, Aboulafia projects the family will capture slightly less than $30 billion in the next decade.
Without the A350 to challenge it for several years, Boeing’s 777 line will continue strong into 2016, picking up $90 billion in orders.
Aboulafia believes that launching a successful A350 is the most important challenge that Airbus has to meet.
“It’s essential that they get going on the A350,” Aboulafia said.
And, just for the record, he said, “Our forecasts say they get it right.”
Reporter Michelle Dunlop: 425-339-3454 or mdunlop@heraldnet.com.
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