EVERETT — Boeing significantly increased its forecast for how many commercial airline pilots and mechanics will be needed during the next 20 years.
The aerospace giant expects 617,000 new pilots and 679,000 mechanics are needed to keep the commercial aviation industry moving between now and 2035. That is a 10 percent jump from its forecast in 2015. For comparison, Boeing raised its projection for new commercial jetliner sales by about 4 percent.
“It’s not a 1:1 ratio” between airplane sales and crew needs, said Sherry Carbary, vice president of Boeing Flight Services.
Which airplanes are expected to sell most and how they are expected to be used contribute to the difference between the two forecasts. Narrow-body airplanes, such as Boeing’s 737 and its competitor, Airbus Group’s A320, make up the biggest slice of market projections from both airplane makers.
Those planes tend to be flown more often than larger airplanes, so more flight crews and mechanics are needed, she said.
In addition, much of the demand for those airplanes is coming from airlines focused on maximizing volume — low-cost carriers and ultra-low-cost carriers. These no-frills airlines typically turn around planes at a quicker pace than legacy carriers. Again, that means, more flight crews and mechanics.
The Asia-Pacific region is expected to need the most new workers: 248,000 pilots and 268,000 mechanics. That is a 9 percent increase for pilots and 11 percent for mechanics.
The North American region forecasted need jumped by 15 percent for new pilots to 112,000 and 11 percent for mechanics to 127,000. Boeing raised its projection for Europe by 9 percent for pilots to 104,000 and 14 percent for mechanics to 118,000.
Expanded air service between the U.S., Mexico and Cuba contributed the increase. Boeing sees cheap flights within the European Union growing at a faster clip, contributing to the increase in that market, Carbary said.
The Federal Aviation Administration extended the retirement age for commercial pilots from 60 to 65. Even so, “we’re hitting that” later age, she said.
Despite the growing need for pilots in North America, “between flight schools and the military, U.S. airlines have been able to get all the pilots they need,” she said. “There are still a lot of furloughed pilots in the U.S.,” so Boeing does not expect any flight crew shortages in the immediate future.
Further down the road, though, training pipelines could struggle to keep pace with industry needs, Carbary said.
And that could hurt airplane sales. Something Boeing obviously wants to avoid.
“We’re trying to get out ahead of that and ensure that doesn’t happen,” she said.
The Asia Pacific and Middle East regions have much less developed training pipelines for pilots and mechanics, she said.
Boeing Flight Services recently announced a partnership with Emirates Flight Training Academy to develop curriculum for trainees. The academy is a division of Emirates Airlines, and is slated to open this October in Dubai and will have capacity for 600 students at a time.
Technological advances are factored into Boeing’s forecast. For example, Boeing’s 787 requires intensive maintenance checks less frequently than older airplanes. However, the latest projection does not include pilotless jetliners. It might be technologically possible, but “psychologically, we’re not there yet,” Carbary said.
Dan Catchpole: 425-339-3454; dcatchpole@heraldnet.com; Twitter: @dcatchpole.
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