LAS VEGAS – It was supposed to be the grand unveiling of a new generation in home entertainment when Kevin Collins of Microsoft Corp. popped an HD DVD disc into a Toshiba production model and hit “play.”
Nothing happened.
The failed product demo at this week’s International Consumer Electronics Show was hardly an auspicious start for the HD DVD camp, in what is promising to be a drawn-out technology format war reminiscent of the Betamax/VHS videotape battle.
Backers of the two rival high-definition DVD formats are betting that the millions of people shelling out thousands of dollars for new high-definition TVs and home theater sound systems will spend a few hundred more for new DVD players and discs that offer sharper pictures and interactive features.
Analysts say the early adopters, those who rush out and buy whatever new technology becomes available, will jump right in and pay $1,800 for a Blu-ray player from Pioneer or $499 for the Toshiba HD DVD player.
But a prolonged struggle between the incompatible formats may mean consumers will have a long wait for a clear winner to emerge, potentially delaying widespread adoption of high-definition DVDs for years.
“There’s no question that a format war is not a good idea,” Howard Stringer, chairman and chief executive officer of Sony Corp., said this week. Sony is a developer and backer of the Blu-ray format.
The Blu-ray team is confident of getting content from most of the top Hollywood studios. It also believes that the new PlayStation 3 game player, which will be equipped with a Blu-ray drive when it debuts later this year, will tip the odds in their favor.
Blu-ray discs have a larger capacity, at 25 gigabytes or more. HD DVD discs have the virtue of being more similar to standard DVDs, which simplifies production, according to its backers.
The HD DVD crowd has the backing of computer giants Intel and Microsoft, and will have the slight advantage of coming to market first. Players from Toshiba can already be ordered from Amazon.com for later delivery, and will hit store shelves in March. Blu-ray players will be available one or two months later.
“HD DVD is really ‘Now playing’” said Yoshiihide Fujii, president and CEO of Toshiba’s Digital Media Network company.
A bigger risk for companies backing the rival DVD systems is if consumers opt to get videos from places such as Yahoo, Google or one of several companies offering downloadable movies over the Internet.
Computer hard drives, particularly on multimedia PCs geared to the living room, are getting bigger every day, and young people especially are accustomed to storing videos there.
Companies such as Starz Entertainment Group, which recently launched its Vongo service, also allow consumers to transfer movies and TV shows to portable devices. DirecTV and Dish Network, two satellite TV services, offer portable viewers that can store hours of programs.
“The longer the format war goes on, the more opportunity smart players in the cable and IPTV and online spaces have to build market share,” said Laura Behrens, an analyst at Gartner Industry Advisory Services.
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