EVERETT — It may not look like it now, but Snohomish County’s economic recovery is under way, an economist told local business leaders Friday.
"The recovery is here, and I’m optimistic," William Conerly told a group assembled at the Everett Country Club Friday for the annual economic forecast luncheon sponsored by the Everett Area Chamber of Commerce.
Conerly, an Oregon economist, said the numbers for both the nation and the region clearly point to growth in 2004.
Retail sales, purchases of business equipment, exports, population and corporate profits are all on the rise, Conerly said, noting that job growth can’t be far behind.
"I think those of you selling goods to people are going to have a pretty good Christmas season," he said, adding that consumer spending was just one element of the recovery.
While consumers have continued their spending for the most part throughout the recent recession, businesses are just now starting to open their wallets, Conerly said.
"They’ve been paying down their debt," he said of businesses throughout the country. "They’ve been in hunker-down mode and they’re switching over to growth mode."
Noting that exports are extremely important to Seattle-area businesses, Conerly said the dollar has been low enough for long enough to attract more purchases from overseas.
"Exports are showing growth," he said.
While he said there’s no hard evidence of Northwest job growth, he predicted that it will happen.
He said spending nationally on business goods and equipment, the rise in exports and what he expects to be an end to cutbacks at the Boeing Co. all should mean that the regional economy will grow and add jobs.
As for Boeing, Conerly said he was optimistic the company would choose Washington state for assembly of its new 7E7 Dreamliner jet because of the experienced local labor force.
"It costs more to get the quality right when you’re dealing with inexperienced people," he said.
Conerly said another reason for his optimism in the local economy is that people continue to move to Washington state even though it has the second highest unemployment rate in the nation.
"We’re a rich enough country that people can live where they want to live," he said. "The growth is going to come to the places that are attractive to the footloose folks. This place has the buzz."
That is likely to continue to happen, he said, until roads and neighborhoods get too crowded and housing becomes too expensive.
While Conerly was optimistic on a number of economic fronts, he did say he expects the housing market to slow next year as interest rates rise.
"The best time for refinancing was last June," he said. "If you didn’t refinance, you’re better off doing it today than a month from today.
He also noted that investment real estate "has been looking worse," while he expects the stock market to grow 5 percent to 10 percent during the next year. "The market has room to go up a little bit," he said.
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