Looking ahead to ‘06

Now that Boeing’s sold all these jets, it has got to build them — while still pushing ahead with development on the 787. The Chicago Tribune http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-0512300273dec30,1,5268097.story?ctrack=1&cset=true looks at some of the challenges ahead with this story, particularly at Onex, the former Boeing plant in Wichita.

Key Quote: “Experts in industrial production warn that Boeing may be overestimating the ability of its new system to adjust to demand. Much of Boeing’s restructuring plan is modeled on Japan’s reinvention of automotive production that began in the 1970s. But lessons from the car business do not always carry over to aerospace, experts warn.”

This is always a big week for these look ahead-look back stories. As journalists, what else are we gonna do? The paper keeps coming out every day and you’ve got to find something to put in it, even when nothing’s going on.

Peter Pae at the LA Times did his the other day. http://www.journalstar.com/articles/2005/12/28/business/doc43b1c3d1bce29707794467.txt It’s been popping up around the country, including here in the Journal Star of Lincoln, Neb.

Key Quote: “Because of the breakneck pace of orders in 2005, analysts forecast that Boeing will surpass Airbus in deliveries by 2007. Either way, the record sales and prospects for a prolonged uptick in commercial aircraft sales have helped hundreds of suppliers in Southern California that make parts for the two aircraft giants.”

And Liz Gillespie, with the Associated Press in Seattle, did one that’s showing up all over the place, including here in the Baku Sun in Azerbijian. http://www.bakusun.az/cgi-bin/ayten/bakusun/show.cgi?code=8964 (Who knew?)

Key Quote: “Regardless of what happens in the final weeks of the year, Boeing has made up so much ground, some analysts are predicting it will reclaim its title as the world’s No. 1 airplane manufacturer within the next few years. ‘If these trends continue, it’s going to be 60-40 in favor of Boeing by the end of the decade, and there’s even a possibility of a two-thirds, one-third split,’ said Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace analyst with Teal Group based in Fairfax, Virginia.”

My look-back story ran last Sunday (Christmas Day). http://www.heraldnet.com/stories/05/12/25/100bus_boeing001.cfm

Key Quote: “Two factors led to the jump in orders. One was pent-up demand. Many airlines had not ordered planes during the industry slump that followed the 2001 terror attacks, and needed to replace older planes. In addition, rising fuel prices gave them incentive to replace old gas-guzzlers.”

My look-ahead will run as part of a broader look at what’s likely to happen in Snohomish County’s economy in 2006, which will be on your doorstep when you wake up late on New Year’s Day. Hopefully you’ll have time to read it while all the subs are playing during the second half of the Seahawks-Packers game. (heh heh)

Since things are quiet right now, it’s as good a time as any to go over again who we are and what we’re doing here.

This blog is provided by The Herald, the daily newspaper in Everett, Wash., as a supplement to our regular Boeing coverage. (http://www.heraldnet.com/ to get to the heraldnet.com home page — or better yet, http://www.heraldnet.com/subscribenew/ to get all this content delivered to your home or office in a highly portable lightweight format that’s extremely intuitive to navigate — and doesn’t require batteries.)

I launched it back in January 2004, and try to update it daily, depending on how much work I’ve got to do for the paper. At The Herald, we’re primarily interested with issues surrounding Boeing’s Everett-based commercial jet programs — 747, 767, 777 and 787. We also keep an eye on aerospace companies that are based near Everett or have a big presence here, like like Goodrich, B/E Aerospace, Panasonic or Zodiak. So that’s what I focus on with the blog, but we’re not strictly limited to that.

You guys, as readers, are MORE than welcome to post responses and links

that you think others will find interesting. In fact, I think your responses can add a lot to the discussion, so I’d encourage you to chime in, so long as you follow two basic rules:

1) Play nice. I hold blog responders to the same standards of decorum — and libel — that my editors insist on from me, and I’ll delete posts that violate them.

2) No links to stories in Seattle’s daily newspapers. The Herald competes with them for readers and advertisers and we’re not going to promote their content here.

2005 was an amazing year to be an aerospace writer. Thanks for your input, and I hope you all enjoyed the ride. See you in ‘06.

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