Moving in on TiVo’s turf

Debra Baker tells people she has TiVo. But she really doesn’t.

The 33-year-old New York tax consultant has a variant — a digital video recorder offered through her cable company. She didn’t know what "DVR" stood for until then.

"I thought DVR was Time Warner’s name for TiVo," she said.

So, like many others, Baker simply uses the leading DVR brand as the catchall term for the new love in her lounging life: a machine that lets her easily record her favorite TV shows and watch them whenever she wants.

It’s a flattering curse for TiVo, whose revolutionary technology records TV programs without the hassles of videotape, letting users pause live TV, do instant replays and begin watching programs even before the recording has finished.

As more clones crop up, the pioneer that helped popularize DVRs is in danger of becoming marginalized.

DVRs are primarily reaching the mass market through cable companies, and TiVo has yet to get its software, including its widely touted user interface, into their DVR-equipped set-top boxes. They are instead using unbranded DVR software from their longtime set-top-box suppliers — Scientific Atlanta and Motorola.

"The cable train has left without TiVo onboard, and I don’t think they’re coming back for TiVo," said Sean Badding, an analyst with The Carmel Group.

At the end of 2003, more than a third of the 3.5 million U.S. households with DVRs had TiVo’s software and services, according to Forrester Research. More than half of that comes though TiVo’s partnership with DirecTV, which has been offering DVR services with its satellite offerings for years.

But as DVRs gain in popularity — Forrester predicts nearly half of American households will have a DVR by 2009 — TiVo may be hard-pressed to hold on to its leading market share.

Time Warner Cable was the first cable operator to launch a DVR in July 2002. Just 18 months later, 370,000 DVR customers were paying an extra $4.95 to $9.95 a month for the service. Comcast Corp., Charter Communications Inc. and nearly every major cable operator all plan to widely deploy DVRs this year.

TiVo’s co-founder and chief executive, Mike Ramsey, maintains that clones can’t compete with such hallmark TiVO features as automatically recording shows based on keywords, such as favorite actor, director or sports team. Unlike cable DVRs, TiVo machines also can guess what programs a user might enjoy based on viewing habits.

"This brain-dead knockoff stuff is not going to work," said Ramsey. "People’s expectations are going to rise. They’re going to hear about TiVo’s (features) and they’re going to want it."

But customers of cable’s offerings seem satisfied.

Baker, a TV-holic who never owned a TiVo before, considers her new cable DVR system "the greatest invention" — and easy enough to use that she never needed an operating manual.

Baker and her husband also appreciated the lack of upfront investment costs to get the cable DVR.

The cable company installed the digital cable box for the Bakers and charges $8.95 a month. TiVo charges subscribers $12.95 a month or $299 for the life of the unit, on top of the $150 or more to get the standalone equipment.

With all this competition from cable companies, now is a critical time for TiVo to turn its No. 1 brand into real sales, Forrester analyst Josh Bernoff said.

An additional threat may also be lurking if DirecTV decides to instead use the xTV DVR technology from its new sister Rupert Murdoch company, NDS Group.

TiVo executives are confident their deal with DirecTV is secure, but allying with cable remains a top priority. Getting into cable boxes would give TiVo a broad footprint to help drive its advertising business, which Ramsey sees as key to TiVo’s future.