Workplace forecast 2004: Change is definitely in the air

Twice around the water cooler, let’s catch up with how America is working these days and what the future foretells.

I feel vindicated

No, it’s not because I uncovered some long undiscovered truth. I am a “piler.” And, it turns out, so are most Americans. A Harris Interactive survey found 84 percent of us prefer piling rather than filing our office paperwork.

While employers dutifully provide acres of file cabinets in hopes we’ll become organized, alas, we grow more and ever larger piles. On average people waste 20 minutes a day hunting for items in those piles, said Jeff Zbar, a Florida-based small office and home office consultant.

In the spirit of full disclosure, this news should have been presented last Monday in celebration of National Clean Up Your Desk Day, but the press release got buried on my desk. Despite the logic that being well organized is a good thing, next year’s NCUYDD will show no improvement in the piling epidemic sweeping the nation.

Will 2004 bring a tsunami of workplace turbulence? Most business forecasters, human resource consultants and nearly all national surveys say a resounding “yes.” People from every pay scale and position are primed to change jobs now.

Roger Herman and Joyce Gioia, strategic business futurists, lead their 2004 workforce and workplace forecasts saying, “More secure employees will stimulate unprecedented churn in the labor marketplace. This turbulence will threaten corporate stability and the capacity to serve customers, particularly for employers who took employees for granted in recent years.”

An Executive Research Institute survey shows 35 percent of corporate construction industry executives are ready to jump ship this year, primary because of poor communications and lack of trust between them and senior managers, including CEOs, 28 percent said.

The Hudson Employment Index says 60 percent of 9,000 employees surveyed said they would make a career move if given the opportunity. Already, 28 percent are “actively looking” to change jobs.

My crystal ball says the big workplace churn is several years off, if it happens at all. Here’s why:

The grass isn’t always greener. American workers will discover that the disconnect between employees and managers is as great as ever in the U.S., and that a move will not necessarily bring the workplace nirvana they seek.

The annual Towers Perrin survey of American employees show increasing cynicism and suspicion among workers with the communications they receive from the C-suite (chief executive office, chief financial officer, chief operating officer).

Of the 1,000 U.S. workers polled, only half (51 percent) believe their company generally tells employees the truth, while almost one in five (19 percent) disagree. Overall, 51 percent believe their companies try too hard to spin the truth and believe senior managers communicate more honestly with shareholders (60 percent) and customers (58 percent) than with employees.

These results reveal a worrisome employer-employee dynamic that should be a wake-up call to any senior executive or leader who will need to communicate with employees in 2004, said Mark Schumann, who heads Towers Perrin’s human resource services and business communication consulting practice.

The Maritz Poll found a significant disconnect between what employees believe they are doing right and how they are recognized for their contributions. Nearly three-quarters (72 percent) of employees said they believe their company knows they are doing a good job, yet 33 percent do not feel they are given feedback on how their work contributes to the success of the organization.

A MetLife study found that less than one-third (32 percent) of today’s workers are satisfied with the benefits provided by their employer – a decrease of nine percentage points from one year ago. Job satisfaction dropped to 48 percent, down four points from last year.

Combined with predictions from many economists that job creation is not yet near levels to accommodate even those entering the job market, let alone millions experiencing extended unemployment, it appears a longer wait for true job security to return to the American workforce landscape.

Write Eric Zoeckler at The Herald, P.O. Box 930, Everett, WA 98206 or e-mail mrscribe@aol.com.