This year the Oscars changed tradition by shifting the honorary awards — statuettes given to movie veterans overdue for plaudits — to a separate ceremony, held last November. That’s a shame, because it sidelines some very deserving people.
But consider this: Some of the Oscars given out today at the 82nd annual Academy Awards are “honorary” in everything but name. It’s always been that way. The Oscars exist, in part, to hand out gold watches to folks who have been long-deserving or overlooked.
The front-and-center guy in that category this year is Jeff Bridges, a shoo-in to win the best actor award for his performance in “Crazy Heart.” Bridges has been greatly admired for decades now, even if his roles rarely coincided with giant box-office hits.
People always say Bridges is underappreciated — although actually that status ended quite a while ago — mostly because people kept saying he was underappreciated. That can only go on for so long before it officially becomes appreciation.
Other opportunities show themselves this year: Sandra Bullock might get a statuette as a gold star on her profitable career, and the Oscar voters can make history by casting their votes for a woman to win the best director award for the first time ever.
Now, does this sound cynical? Shouldn’t Oscars go to the people who really deserve them for a particular performance, and sentiment and politics be left out of it?
What planet are you from?
Along with shifting the honorary Oscars to a different night (honoraries went to Lauren Bacall, B-movie king Roger Corman and cinematographer Gordon Willis, by the way), the other big change this year is a longer list of best picture nominees. Instead of five, we have 10.
This number is not unprecedented; the Academy had 10 nominees for a while back in the 1930s and early 1940s. The current producers no doubt wanted to attract more viewers to the TV telecast because ratings had been drooping with all the small indie movies that were getting nominated for best picture.
Irony alert: Because of the success of “Avatar,” the highest-grossing movie ever, the ratings will probably be up this year anyway.
But here we are with 10 nominees, and the number does dilute the honor. Strangely, this will not affect the amount of mutual back-scratching, flattery and self-aggrandizement that are such familiar Hollywood landmarks.
The hosts are Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin, so at least a few funny things should be said. There’s more suspense about them than about the major awards, where a consensus seems to have gathered over the past few weeks.
That’s the way I’m picking, anyway. These predictions are based on who I think will win, not who I think should win. So grab the popcorn and start the show.
Best motion picture
“The Hurt Locker.” An excellent film on a serious topic. However … this does strike me as a rare year in which the director and picture awards could split, as they did for the 2005 awards, when “Crash” took best picture and Ang Lee won best director for “Brokeback Mountain.”
I could see “Up in the Air” winning this spot, for the way it captures its moment, or “Avatar,” just for the sheer technological dazzle of it all. Those are the three with a shot; the others, in descending order of probability, are: “Inglourious Basterds,” “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire,” “Up,” “The Blind Side,” “A Serious Man,” “An Education” and “District 9.”
Best actress
Meryl Streep, “Julie &Julia.” The oddsmakers are favoring Sandra Bullock (“The Blind Side”), so this is a guess. But Streep is riding a hot streak, and Bullock is still young, and jeez, Streep was terrific. Not in the running are Helen Mirren (“The Last Station”), Carey Mulligan (“An Education”) and Gabourey Sidibe (“Precious”).
Best actor
Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart.” A splendid performance that redeemed a very conventional movie, and a crowning moment in a career that has its share of brilliance (remember Bridges in “Cutter’s Way,” “Fearless,” “The Big Lebowski,” “The Last Picture Show,” “Bad Company,” “The Fabulous Baker Boys,” “Starman,” “Fat City,” and lots of others, and you’ll get the commemorative nature of the award).
Condolences to George Clooney (“Up in the Air”), Colin Firth (“A Single Man”), Morgan Freeman (“Invictus”) and Jeremy Renner (“The Hurt Locker”).
Best supporting actress
Mo’Nique, “Precious.” She’s been acting mostly as a comic presence for 10 years, and the Academy likes course-changers. Mo’Nique’s harrowing performance as a rotten mother is certainly worthy enough; her main competition is Maggie Gyllenhaal’s beautiful turn opposite Bridges in “Crazy Heart.”
Penelope Cruz won last year, and “Nine” came and went without leaving a ripple, so she’s out. And although they were excellent, Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick from “Up in the Air” won’t be in the running.
Best supporting actor
Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds.” A nimble, sinister, exceptionally clever performance that could have been nominated in the best actor category — size of role doesn’t hurt in this always-rich category. It’s also kind of cool that nobody had ever heard of him — outside diehard fans of Euro-TV — before Quentin Tarantino cast him in a plum role.
Woody Harrelson was terrific in “The Messenger,” and Matt Damon will probably win one of these things someday, but not for his modest “Invictus” performance. Christopher Plummer (“The Last Station”) is along for the ride, and Stanley Tucci should’ve been nominated for “Julie &Julia,” not “The Lovely Bones.”
Best director
Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker.” James Cameron, Bigelow’s ex-husband, can’t be entirely counted out for driving “Avatar” to blockbuster status, but the urge to give the first director award to a woman probably will win the day (as Cameron himself ungraciously suggested on “60 Minutes” last weekend). One other small detail: She deserves to win.
The dark horse candidate is Jason Reitman for “Up in the Air,” but Tarantino (“Inglourious Basterds”) and Lee Daniels (“Precious”) are unlikely.
Best original screenplay
“The Hurt Locker,” Mark Boal. Especially if it wins best picture. Tarantino’s wild script for “Inglourious Basterds” has a shot, but if it wins, it means the Academy voters really have gotten younger in recent years.
The other nominees are “A Serious Man” (Joel and Ethan Coen), “Up” (Bob Peterson, Pete Docter and Tom McCarthy), and “The Messenger” (Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman).
Best adapted screenplay
“Up in the Air,” by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner. A smart and funny script that, by the writers’ own account, considerably changed Walter Kirn’s source novel.
It should outpoint the other nominees: “District 9” (Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell), “An Education” (Nick Hornby), “In the Loop” (Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannuci, Tony Roche) and “Precious” (Geoffrey Fletcher).
Best animated feature
“Up.” This would seem obvious, since it’s the only nominee in this category also nominated for best picture. However, there are some strong contenders: “Fantastic Mr. Fox,” “Coraline,” “The Princess and the Frog” and the somewhat mysterious “Secret of Kells.”
Best foreign-language film
“A Prophet,” France. This one’s a hunch; the betting is on “The White Ribbon” from Germany, but “A Prophet” is a very complete and satisfying picture, more the kind of movie the voters in this category tend to favor.
The other three films have not played regular runs yet: “Ajami” (Israel), “The Secret in Their Eyes” (Argentina), and “The Milk of Sorrow” (Peru).
Best documentary feature
“The Cove.” I haven’t seen a couple of the nominees, but “The Cove” is an emotionally wrenching expose about Japan’s ritual slaughter of dolphins. It’s somewhat more focused than two other strong nominees, “Burma JV” and “Food, Inc.”
The others are “Which Way Home” and “The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsburg and the Pentagon Papers.”
Best song
“The Weary Kind,” from “Crazy Heart.” It meant the most to its film, which ought to count for something.
Best music
“Up,” Michael Giacchino. But I really don’t know. James Horner could well win this for his typically large score for “Avatar,” or Alexandre Desplat for his clever work on “Fantastic Mr. Fox.” The scores from “Sherlock Holmes” and “The Hurt Locker” seem less likely.
Best cinematography
“Avatar,” Mauro Fiore. Should be one of many technical awards for Cameron’s high-tech project. When in doubt (visual effects?), pick “Avatar.” Your Oscar ballot will thank you.
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