SPOKANE – Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell and Republican Mike McGavick today will duel face-to-face rather than fax-to-fax.

This first campaign showdown carries opportunity and risk for both in the fight for a six-year term in the U.S. Senate.

For Cantwell, it’s a chance to tout her handling of national policy matters, recount her successes and put a warm touch on her serious facade.

For McGavick, it’s a chance to show he can hold his own on the issues, offer new solutions and put a different resume before voters.

For all the preparation and anticipation of today’s debate, it is unlikely to cause a major shift in the dynamics of the race, say academics and political consultants.

“In the end, I don’t think this debate is going to have much of an impact on the election unless one of the candidates makes a mistake,” said Travis Ridout, an assistant professor of political science at Washington State University in Pullman.

Voters are less influenced by debates than most people think, said Denny Heck, a Democrat adviser who worked on Gov. Chris Gregoire’s 2004 campaign.

“This is a whole lot more about pundits and insiders and their parlor games than it is about how people make their minds up,” he said.

Cantwell and McGavick will meet in front of the Spokane Rotary in the Spokane Club located in the heart of downtown.

The debate will start at 12:45 p.m. and last 30 minutes.

A second and final debate, lasting one hour, will be taped in Seattle on Tuesday and shown that night at 9 on KING5.

Polling shows Cantwell leading McGavick by 8 to 10 points. These polls usually exclude the three other candidates: Bruce Guthrie, a Libertarian, Aaron Dixon, a Green, and Robin Adair, an Independent. None are invited to today’s event.

Heck said both participants should be following a similar game plan – don’t make a mistake, stay on message and, where possible, land blows.

Cantwell faces the greater danger because she’s ahead.

“Her mission is to just get through this. Don’t look for her to take risks. For incumbents it is an almost no-win situation,” said Chris Vance, a principal for Gallatin Group of Seattle and former head of the state Republican Party.

This is her election to lose and she must avoid shooting herself in the foot, said David Domke, an associate professor in the University of Washington’s Department of Communication.

“So far she’s running an ad campaign. That’s the incumbent way,” he said. “I think McGavick will say she’s avoiding the press and the public. She’ll say, “I was in D.C. and I’m back now.’”

McGavick should be trying to “look senatorial, a credible alternative so that people say I could see him there,” Vance said.

Candidates should treat a debate like a job interview, Vance said, because voters are checking out your resume, your comportment and drawing critical impressions.

“It is less important to nail every detail and fact,” he said. “What matters is you don’t want to lose your temper, you don’t want to look uncomfortable.”

McGavick is champing at the bit to make an impression.

“It is a great opportunity for Mike to talk about the big issues that the senator and other incumbent leaders are not talking about” such as the war on terror, the federal deficit and Social Security, said Elliott Bundy, McGavick’s spokesman.

McGavick has been frustrated at getting only two chances to debate Cantwell. He’s made it an issue, which might stir the interest of voters to watch.

“Each debate is important because Sen. Cantwell has decided to limit her interaction in public with Mike,” Bundy said.

Cantwell views the debates as a means of focusing on differences between the candidates, said Amanda Mahnke, Cantwell’s campaign spokeswoman.

“The goal is to talk about the issues that she’s been talking about,” she said.

She said expectations are higher for the challenger.

“Given how far behind Mr. McGavick is at this point, he needs a knockout,” she said.

Reporter Jerry Cornfield: 360-352-8623 or jcornfield@ heraldnet.com.