GOP pins state Senate hopes on two seats

OLYMPIA — Voters in Snohomish and Island counties may decide whether Republicans regain the majority in the state Senate in 2013.

If Republicans pick up three additional seats in the November elections, they’ll snag control of the chamber for the first time since 2004.

And GOP leaders consider two of their best chances lie in knocking off long-tenured Democratic Sens. Mary Margaret Haugen of Camano Island and Rosemary McAuliffe of Bothell.

“I’m optimistic. I think it’ll go this year,” said Senate Minority Leader Mike Hewitt, R-Walla Walla.

Even if they come up short in their aspirations, Republicans will continue to command a philosophical majority in the Senate when it comes to issues of state spending and government reform, he said.

“Regardless of what happens, I think you’re going to see much of the same dynamic we had last year,” Hewitt said.

Not surprisingly, Democratic leaders don’t see Republicans ousting two of their stalwart members and achieving a Senate takeover. Rather, they predict a larger and more philosophically cohesive Democratic caucus will emerge when the dust of this November’s election settles.

“It is a presidential year, which means Washington state (voters) will tilt a little more blue,” said veteran Democratic consultant Christian Sinderman of Seattle. “Rumors of a full-scale upheaval in the legislative chambers are over-exaggerated.”

Senate Democrats now outnumber Republicans by a 27-22 margin. However, there are several moderate and conservative Democrats in the caucus, some of whom routinely side with Republicans on budget and reform bills.

It happened in March when Democratic Sens. Tim Sheldon of Potlatch, Rodney Tom of Medina and Jim Kastama of Puyallup joined the 22 Republicans to pass a GOP-crafted budget plus bills to reduce retirement benefits for future state workers, revise health insurance policies for public school workers and rewrite the rules for budgeting.

That vote effectively paralyzed the Legislature as the Senate couldn’t get its budget through a Democrat-controlled House.

The stalemate pushed lawmakers into a special session that lasted 31 days, ending after an all-nighter in which most senators backed a budget designed by Democrats and those reform measures sought by Republicans.

Candidate filing ended Friday, giving Republican and Democratic leaders a chance to take the measure of the electoral map to see where each party may gain or lose seats.

Republicans are confident they will pick up the seat of Kastama, who is forgoing re-election to run for Secretary of State. Rep. Bruce Dammeier, R-Puyallup, a popular two-term lawmaker, is seeking the position, and even Democratic leaders concede he’s the heavy favorite to win.

Haugen and McAuliffe are the other prime targets of the Senate Republican caucus, though they will be tough to unseat. Both got elected to the Senate in 1992 and been re-elected four times.

“Both of those races will be close,” Sinderman said. “Those two women are well-established, hard working incumbents who know their communities very well and have survived worse partisan battles.”

Haugen is up against state Rep. Barbara Bailey, R-Oak Harbor, in the 10th Legislative District, which includes all of Island County and parts of Snohomish and Skagit counties.

It’s pretty evenly split among Democratic and Republican voters. As a result, Haugen has had some tight races. In 2008, she won with 53.6 percent of the vote while in 2004 she garnered just 50.3 percent.

Bailey, a five-term representative, is an experienced fundraiser and campaigner, buoying the hopes of her party.

Hewitt said the polling is “very good” and redistricting pushed the partisan needle a bit more toward the GOP. He expects a costly no-holds-barred contest.

Democrats do, too.

“We are committed to holding that seat,” said Sen. David Frockt, D-Seattle, one of the leaders of the Senate Democratic caucus political operation. “That is a critical seat for us to hold.”

On paper, McAuliffe appears less vulnerable in the 1st Legislative District, which includes Bothell, Mountlake Terrace and Kirkland.

Its voters historically favor Democrats in most major elections. An analysis of the 2008 races for governor and president and the 2010 U.S. Senate contest found 54 percent of votes were cast for Democrats.

Republicans offer a different analysis. They note that Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna won re-election handily in the district in 2008 and his presence on the ballot this year will be a boost.

And, McAuliffe is facing two opponents — Guy Palumbo, a Democratic businessman who’s raised more money than her to this point, and Dawn McCravey, a Republican who serves on the Northshore School Board.

McCravey, an education reform advocate, won a second term on the school board last November. She beat a candidate backed by the Washington Education Association, the statewide teachers union, which views McAuliffe as its backstop to unwanted changes in public education such as charter schools.

“She knows how to campaign and the community is behind her,” Hewitt said.

Frockt said it will be a vigorous race but expects McAuliffe to emerge the victor.

While Republicans are looking to grab three seats, Democrats think they have a shot at knocking out a couple of Republican incumbents.

One of their prime targets is in the 17th Legislative District in southwest Washington, where Rep. Tim Probst, D-Vancouver, is taking on Sen. Don Benton, R-Vancouver, a conservative stalwart of the GOP.

“Don Benton is one of the most divisive Tea Party figures. We feel pretty good about that seat,” said Michael King, executive director of the Senate Democratic Campaign Committee.

Hewitt isn’t outwardly concerned. “Nobody is better at campaigning than Don.”

If Probst pulls off the upset, Democrats are counting on him to be more loyal to the caucus agenda in 2013 than Kastama this year.

November is a ways away. While strategists in both parties are touting the talents of their candidates, they said they won’t be surprised if the philosophical division seen in 2012 carries over another year.

“Republicans will have ideological control of the Senate,” predicted Alex Hays, executive director of Mainstream Republicans of Washington. “What is yet to be seen is whether they have an outright majority.”

Jerry Cornfield: 360-352-8623; jcornfield@heraldnet.com.

Talk to us

> Give us your news tips.

> Send us a letter to the editor.

> More Herald contact information.

More in Local News

Oliver Popa, 7, poses with his book, "Drippey Plants a Garden," on Tuesday, March 25, 2025 in Edmonds, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Edmonds 7-year-old publishes children’s book featuring ‘Drippey’ the bee

Oliver Popa’s first grade teacher said he should publish a longer version of a writing assignment. A year later, his mother — a publisher — helped made it happen.

Don Sharrett talks John Wrice through his trimming technique on Friday, March 14, 2025 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Everett barber school offers $5 haircuts — if you’re brave enough

Students get hands-on practice. Willing clients get a sweet deal.

Employees and patrons of the Everett Mall signed a timeline mural that traces the history of the 51-year-old indoor mall that was once considered the premier place to go shopping in the city. Thursday, March 20, 2025 (Aaron Kennedy / The Herald)
Mall mural offers nostalgic trip into the past

Past and present Everett Mall employees joined customers Thursday to view an artistic timeline of the once popular shopping mecca.

Percy Levy, who served 17 years for drug-related crimes, outside his new business Redemption Auto along Highway 99 on Thursday, Sept. 21, 2023 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Everett man, arrested on drugs, weapons charges, moved to federal detention

In addition to Percy Levy, U.S. marshals transferred a second suspect in the case to federal custody.

2025 Emerging Leader Anthony Hawley (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Anthony Hawley: Creating friendships and filling pantries

Since 2021, Hawley has increased donations to Lake Stevens Community Food Bank through fundraising and building donor relationships.

Gary Petershagen
Lake Stevens council member announces reelection run

Gary Petershagen is seeking a third term on the council.

2025 Emerging Leader Megan Kemmett (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Megan Kemmett: Seeking solutions to any problem or obstacle

Executive director of Snohomish Community Food Bank overcomes obstacles to keep people fed.

Director for the Snohomish County Health Department Dennis Worsham leads a short exercise during the Edge of Amazing event on Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Snohomish County Health Department faces up to $3.4 million in cuts

The two federal grants provided funding for immunizations and disease prevention awareness efforts.

2025 Emerging Leader DeLon Lewis (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
DeLon Lewis: Helping students succeed

Program specialist for Everett Community College believes leadership is about building bridges.

Daron Johnson, who runs Snohomish County Scanner, stands next to his scanner setup on Tuesday, April 1 in Everett, Washington. (Will Geschke / The Herald)
Snohomish County law enforcement to encrypt police airwaves

The plan for civilian police scanners to go dark pushed a host to shut down his popular breaking news feed.

Richie Gabriel, 1, jumps off the bottom of the slide as Matthew Gabriel looks down at him from the play structure at Hummingbird Hill Park on Monday, March 31, 2025 in Edmonds, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Edmonds residents show up for Hummingbird Hill Park, Frances Anderson Center

After a two-and-a-half hour public comment session, the council tabled its votes for the two comprehensive plan amendments.

Students Haddie Shorb, 9, left, and brother Elden Shorb, 11, right, lead the ground breaking at Jackson Elementary School on Tuesday, April 1, 2025 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Everett Public Schools breaks ground on Jackson Elementary replacement

The $54 million project will completely replace the aging elementary school. Students are set to move in by the 2026-27 school year.

Support local journalism

If you value local news, make a gift now to support the trusted journalism you get in The Daily Herald. Donations processed in this system are not tax deductible.