Snohomish County is not aced out of the race for regional jet service.
Michael V. Martina / The Herald
The race might just be getting started.
Even as Seattle-Tacoma International Airport builds its third runway, and Southwest Airlines ponders moving to King County’s Boeing Field, supporters say Paine Field remains a candidate for passenger air travel service.
When and whether flights start coming to Snohomish County’s airport is the big question.
Some say the time is between three years and never.
There are enough differences and distance between the three major Puget Sound airports that there might be room for all three to grow, with each offering its own level of passenger service.
Despite vehement opposition from some in the community, others see it as inevitable that Paine Field will see an increase in commercial flights.
Snohomish County is booming, and a population equal to three times Everett’s current population of 91,000 is expected in the next 20 years.
The millions of people living in the Puget Sound region – and more to come – will drive that market. Los Angeles County in California, for example, supports several regional airports.
The airlines will make their own decisions about whether commercial service makes sense for Snohomish County, making Paine Field more of a player in Puget Sound.
For the moment, nobody is knocking on Paine Field’s door.
That doesn’t discourage boosters.
“It’s the finest facility in the U.S., with modern runways, a brand new tower, everything that’s needed for an airfield, a 9,000-foot runway,” said Hank Robinett, an Everett housing developer, former airport commissioner and arguably the loudest and longest-standing supporter of more commercial flights at Paine Field.
“We’re talking about a billion dollar piece of real estate that’s underutilized. The only thing missing is a passenger terminal.”
A bare-bones terminal that could handle two 70-seat jets is estimated to cost $3.2 million, airport officials said last week.
A market study paid for by the county in 2004 suggested the airport could support regional air service, adding that Paine Field could capture up to 30 percent of the 7,000 Snohomish County residents who fly out of Sea-Tac every day.
How many of those 7,000 people would fly out of Snohomish County depends heavily on how many departures and destinations Paine Field offers, the report said.
Until then, Paine Field remains a hub for Boeing, the aerospace industry and general aviation.
In one corner: Boeing
No one disputes that Sea-Tac is the king airport in Puget Sound. If a major carrier such as Southwest ever leaves Sea-Tac, it would be to Boeing Field.
Paine Field doesn’t have a seat at that table.
Boeing Field has two key things going for it: Population and location. It’s near Seattle and suburban King County and that county’s passengers and tourism centers. It’s also the state’s core of jobs and business.
But Boeing Field airport is small, said Harold Taniguchi, King County’s transportation director who oversees Boeing Field, also called King County International Airport. At 614 acres, it’s less than half the size of Paine Field’s 1,300 acres.
“It’s highly unlikely we will have multiple airlines flying out of King County International Airport,” Taniguchi said. “We’re simply constrained by space.”
The hangars are full, and Boeing Field thrives as a general aviation airport, he said.
Taniguchi says King County’s talks with Southwest are continuing.
Too far from Seattle
Any hope for immediate flights at Paine Field would have to lure them from Sea-Tac, or rely on spillover from growth in the airline industry.
The likely candidates say they’re happy staying put.
While Boeing Field’s cheaper fees and proximity to Seattle has caught Southwest Airlines attention, Paine Field has not.
“We’ve evaluated all of our options. Boeing Field is closer to the city of Seattle, and close-in airports fit our business model better,” said Marilee McInnis, a Southwest spokeswoman.
Boeing Field is about 41/2 miles from downtown Seattle. Paine Field is about 20 miles.
However, there’s no reason Snohomish County can’t snag a few Southwest flights or a couple from Alaska Airlines and handful of flights from regional airlines such as Horizon and Sky West, said state Sen. Dave Schmidt, a leading advocate for bringing commercial airlines to Paine Field.
“We’re not asking them to move their whole lock-stock operations,” said Schmidt, R-Mill Creek.
If not Southwest, then perhaps another airline will be willing to run a few flights out of Paine Field, Schmidt said. Airlines are gun-shy about moving into a new area because the industry has been so up and down since September 2001, but he said that could change pretty quickly.
“Once it starts to be beneficial for one, then two or three will follow,” he said. “They’re not going to lose their competitive advantage.”
Schmidt said there’s a population of would-be passengers eager to avoid having to drive to Sea-Tac and then wait for hours before getting to fly.
“It saves money, time and convenience,” said Schmidt, who used himself as an example.
He estimates that it now takes him five hours to fly to San Jose, Calif.: That’s an hour to get to Sea-Tac, the recommended two hours of wading through security, and then nearly two hours of actual flying.
He said he could shave two hours off that time flying out of Paine Field. That lost time is money, he said.
Snohomish County’s market study suggests that airlines including America West, United and Delta that have hubs in the west, and limited flights out of Sea-Tac, might relocate some of their flights to Paine Field to funnel passengers to their hubs.
“We’re perfectly happy at Sea-Tac,” said Phil Gee, a spokesman for America West, which has hubs in Phoenix and Las Vegas. “We have no plans of looking to move.”
Regional flights
While the big-dog airlines say they aren’t coming to Snohomish County, most say it’s more likely that the airport will woo regional jets of the 38- to 100-seat variety.
Some airlines have tried Paine Field already. San Juan Airlines offered flights to Portland for about a year starting in 1987. Others, in particular, regional airline Horizon Air, have flirted with Paine Field for more than a decade.
“Currently Horizon Air is not pursuing operating out of Paine Field,” said Jen McSkimming, a Horizon spokeswoman. “That doesn’t mean we’ll never be there, but right now we’re not looking into providing service at Paine Field.”
For Paine Field to become viable the number of would-be passengers needs to climb and become more consistent, she said. Horizon needs to be able to buy more jets too.
It also needs a terminal, and somebody to pay for and build it.
The county’s market study says there’s demand for regional flights – to nearby places such as Portland and Spokane – and nonstop flights to Las Vegas, California, Hawaii and elsewhere. The passengers would include Snohomish County residents and people living between Bellevue and the San Juan Islands, according to the study.
That service would elevate Snohomish County’s role in the region.
“Aviation is the key to the future of any metropolitan area,” Robinett said. “I don’t mean we’ll be Sea-Tac North, and we never will be, but it could be a good place for point-to-point service, like to California and Hawaii.”
Nonstop flights – called point-to-point, flying directly to destination cities – will draw on future generations of Boeing jets, Robinett said.
“The future in aviation is going to be point-to-point, and that opens up more opportunities for smaller airports like Paine Field or Boeing Field,” County Councilman Jeff Sax said.
“In my heart of hearts, I’m 100 percent sure Paine Field is going to be an airport that is providing point-to-point service in the future.
“The economics of the air traveling public are going to determine which kind of plane flies in and out of Paine Field. We can’t restrict what size plane flies in and out of Paine Field.”
The critics of commercial air service worry that the county won’t let the market dictate a decision.
“My greatest concern is that Snohomish County is going to subsidize the operation at Paine Field to induce air carriers into Paine Field,” Mukilteo Mayor Don Doran said.
The studies that the county continues to spend money on have put the county on path toward wooing an airline to Paine Field, by paying to build a terminal for them or by providing some other incentive, Doran said.
No promise at Boeing
In Greg Hauth’s mind, it’s easy to compare Paine and Boeing fields.
“King County didn’t make a promise for 27 years to not develop Boeing Field as a commercial airport,” said Hauth, president of Save Our Communities, a Mukilteo-based group that has fought commercial airline service at Paine Field since 1992.
Hauth said people have built homes and businesses around the airport with the promise that the county wouldn’t pursue commercial flights at Paine Field.
In 1978, the county leadership approved a measure that encouraged air taxi and commuter service but strongly discouraged expanding supplemental and charter air passenger service.
And while critics are hanging their hats on that language, airport expansion supporters say the document – called the Mediated Role Determination – is too vague and too old to hold sway today.
“It was nothing more than a resolution by a county commission that doesn’t exist anymore,” Schmidt said.
Airplane noise technology has improved so much in three decades that residents who live around the airport won’t even notice if there are 20 to 25 more jets flying out of Paine Field each day, Schmidt said.
County Executive Aaron Reardon in May said he would forge a panel to evaluate the 1978 agreement, acknowledging the debate over what history says should occur at the airport.
The panel, which is still taking shape, will evaluate how noise might affect nearby property values and what economic good might come from airline service.
To lead the panel, Reardon said he appointed Doran, and Everett Mayor Ray Stephanson, who has said airport expansion may be warranted.
Doran said he has yet to be contacted by Reardon about sitting on the panel. Stephanson said he was contacted initially.
Although the community can discourage commercial service, FAA rules say local jurisdictions cannot ban commercial flights.
What’s next?
Most area politicians aren’t openly advocating for passenger flights at Paine Field. They’re caught between residents fearing noise and traffic impacts on one side, and businesses pushing for a stronger economy on the other.
In the past, Reardon said he has opposed airport expansion as a legislator, and in his 2003 campaign for executive.
This week, Reardon called the issue a “tempest in a teapot.”
“In terms of all the issues regarding the economy in the region, it’s a very, very small issue, and more is being made of it than there actually is.”
Despite a market study that says there is demand for flights from Snohomish County, Reardon said: “I have yet to see any market numbers that support air travel in Snohomish County.”
Instead, Reardon is pushing for more jobs and aerospace technology industries on the county’s Paine Field property.
Although Paine Field Director Dave Waggoner and other Snohomish County officials have taken neutral positions on bringing commercial air service to Paine Field, Waggoner has been meeting with city councils, Rotary clubs and other community groups for six months.
Waggoner described the meetings as informational only, and are at the behest of county leaders who in 2002 directed him to explore whether there is a market for commercial flights, and what it would take to build a terminal.
Waggoner’s final presentations are July 11, 12 and 13, said Mark Funk, Reardon’s spokesman.
After that, “there are not going to be anymore presentations, and he will prepare a summary and present what he has learned to the County Council later in the year,” Funk said.
Doran said claims of neutrality by Reardon and Waggoner ring hollow.
“I would say their actions are clearly speaking much louder than their words,” Doran said. “It sure seems they are spending a lot of money and a lot of effort toward expanding the role at Paine Field.”
Reporter Jeff Switzer: 425-339-3452 or lvelush@heraldnet.com.
Reporter Lukas Velush: 425-339-3449 or lvelush@ heraldnet.com.
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