Rising seas bring together scientists and tribes

  • By Chris Winters Herald Writer
  • Sunday, May 1, 2016 8:34pm
  • Local News

SEATTLE — Last week, a group of environmental scientists, resource managers, planners, researchers, students and elders gathered at the Mountaineers’ headquarters on Sand Point Way to exchange ideas.

The occasion was a two-day forum called “Making Sense of Sea Level Rise,” organized and hosted by the Tulalip Tribes.

The symposium was geared toward combining knowledge from disparate organizations and individuals and looking for opportunities to collaborate.

It was less about revealing new science than it was about finding out how to put what is already known into action.

“Our expectation is mainly just to pull together people working on climate issues, especially sea level rise,” said Terry Williams, the Tulalip Tribes’ treaty rights office commissioner.

The goal was to find out how to bring that expertise at different levels of government together.

“A lot of people (have been) doing a lot of work pretty much independently,” Williams said.

That was apparent from the list of presentations, which included technical analyses of environmental factors contributing to both short-term and long-term changes in sea level over a wide area, case studies of flooding in coastal communities, and different methods of visualization to help communicate technical information to nonscientific audiences.

Because the Tulalips were organizing the event, there was a particular focus on tribal communities, many of which lie in rural areas along coastlines.

Native American communities are often like the canaries in the coal mine when it comes to environmental problems, said Larry Campbell, a tribal elder from the Swinomish Indian Tribal Community.

“Whenever there’s a new epidemic, it hits tribal communities first,” Campbell said, drawing on the Navajo Nation’s experience with the hantavirus outbreak in 1993.

The Swinomish, who live on the coast in Skagit County, became aware of changes in the climate, too.

“We noticed that the 100-year storms seemed to be happening every five years now,” Campbell said.

The observations of a native community were backed by science that has charted the rising and falling of the ocean in coastal communities going back more than a century.

Philip Mote, director of the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute at Oregon State University, highlighted different estimates for what will happen to sea levels, but also indicated that there were still large areas of uncertainty.

Mote presented data, for example, that showed estimates of sea level rise based upon different levels of carbon emissions control, ranging from estimates of a rise of 16-24 inches by 2100 if the world’s nations succeed in tightly controlling emissions, to a rise of up to 40 inches by the end of the century in a scenario of uncontrolled emissions.

That data accounts for what is understood about how emissions warm the seas, causing what is known as “thermal expansion,” as well as melting glaciers.

There are still many factors whose impact is not well understood, he said.

“Antarctica is the big unknown,” Mote said. Furthermore, he added, local factors such as El Nino weather systems can have almost the same size effect as global factors, and over the span of a few decades.

Ian Miller, a coast hazard specialist with Washington Sea Grant on the Olympic Peninsula, pointed out that having rigorous science is only part of the challenge. The next step is communicating it to people who can take informed actions.

A 2012 National Research Council report, “Sea Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon and Washington,” contained solid and sobering research, but it didn’t get a wide amount of publicity, he said.

One reason, Miller presumed, was that the report took a large-scale view of a lot of effects, such as vertical land movement, the rise and fall of land masses.

“That left questions open at the community level as to how relevant it was to them,” Miller said.

Research he’d conducted along the Strait of Juan de Fuca has projected different outcomes: Port Townsend has a greater probability of experiencing higher seas and extreme flooding than Neah Bay where the land is actually rising in a manner consistent with the Cascadia Subduction Zone off the coast.

“That’s got planning implications in each of those communities,” Miller said.

“It’s not just about average sea level,” he said. “It’s about changes in patterns of extremes that affect communities.”

The more formal presentations were followed by breakout sessions in groups, giving the attendees the opportunity to compare ideas and explore questions more deeply.

Josh Meidav, the Tulalip Tribes’ conservation science program manager, said the workshop was valuable even though Tulalip had been doing a lot of study and work on the issues surrounding climate change, such as restoring tidal marshes near Marysville.

He said he was especially interested in refining existing models with new data as well as exploring new ways of presenting this kind of data to the tribal community and leadership.

“There’s a sense of being overwhelmed, but that translates into a sense of responsibility and possibility for opportunity,” Meidav said.

“If we don’t plan now, we pay a lot more later, with interest, as a society,” he said.

Chris Winters: 425-374-4165; cwinters@heraldnet.com. Twitter: @Chris_At_Herald.

Talk to us

> Give us your news tips.

> Send us a letter to the editor.

> More Herald contact information.

More in Local News

Employees and patrons of the Everett Mall signed a timeline mural that traces the history of the 51-year-old indoor mall that was once considered the premier place to go shopping in the city. Thursday, March 20, 2025 (Aaron Kennedy / The Herald)
Mall mural offers nostalgic trip into the past

Past and present Everett Mall employees joined customers Thursday to view an artistic timeline of the once popular shopping mecca.

Edmonds Mayor Mike Rosen gives his State of the City address on Thursday, March 20 in Edmonds, Washington. (Will Geschke / The Herald)
Edmonds mayor talks budget at 2025 State of the City

Mayor Mike Rosen discussed the city’s deficit and highlights from his first year in office.

Public’s help needed to find missing Arlington man

The 21-year-old left the house Sunday night without his shoes, cell phone or a jacket, and was reported missing the following morning.

The Marysville Tulalip Campus on the Tulalip Reservation, where Legacy High School is located. (Will Geschke / The Herald)
Marysville board votes to keep Legacy High at current location

The move rolls back a decision the school board made in January to move the alternative high school at the start of next school year.

The former Marysville City Hall building along State Avenue on Tuesday, April 30, 2024 in Marysville, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
City of Marysville, school board amend property exchange

The city will relocate its public works facility to the district’s current headquarters, which will move to the former City Hall.

Snohomish County Elections employees Alice Salcido, left and Joseph Rzeckowski, right, pull full bins of ballots from the Snohomish County Campus ballot drop box on Monday, Nov. 4, 2024 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
County to mail ballots for Edmonds, Brier elections

Registered voters should receive their ballots by April 9 for the April 22 special election.

A stormwater diversion structure which has been given a notice for repairs along a section of the Perrinville Creek north of Stamm Overlook Park that flows into Browns Bay in Edmonds, Washington on Thursday, July 18, 2024. (Annie Barker / The Herald)
Edmonds Hearing Examiner decides on Perrinville Creek saga

The examiner revoked the city’s Determination of Non-Significance, forcing Edmonds to address infrastructure issues on the creek

Don Sharrett talks John Wrice through his trimming technique on Friday, March 14, 2025 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Everett barber school offers $5 haircuts — if you’re brave enough

Students get hands-on practice. Willing clients get a sweet deal.

Our Lady of Hope Fr. Joseph Altenhofen outside of his parish’s building that will be the new home of Hope ‘N Wellness on Wednesday, March 5, 2025 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
New Hope ‘N Wellness location to open Wednesday in Everett

Our Lady of Hope Church will host the social service organization at 2617 Cedar St. in Everett.

Amtrak Cascades train 517 to Portland departs from Everett Station on Saturday, Sep. 2, 2023, in Everett, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
Limited train service to resume on Amtrak Cascades

Trains will have less capacity for now, but service is expected to resume for some routes as early as Tuesday.

Marysville
Police: 66-year-old Marysville man dead from fatal stabbing

A neighbor found the man unconscious on the sidewalk as the result of an apparent stabbing. Police said they are looking for suspects.

Logo for news use featuring Snohomish County, Washington. 220118
Driver, suspected of DUI, hits WSP vehicle on I-5 near Everett

The trooper was blocking the HOV lane for a previous collision when his vehicle was struck Saturday morning.

Support local journalism

If you value local news, make a gift now to support the trusted journalism you get in The Daily Herald. Donations processed in this system are not tax deductible.