Schools will have fewer teachers and more crowded classrooms this fall.

Courses will be dropped.

Orders for new textbooks will be shelved, and more kids will be forced to walk to school.

Those are likelihoods local school districts are facing as the state House and Senate circulate bleak budget proposals that confront a $9 billion shortfall projected for the next biennium.

Statewide, more than 3,000 teachers could lose their jobs. Thousands of other positions, from aides to administrators, also are on the hook.

The reality is starting to hit close to home as local school leaders crunch numbers based on scaled-back state funding.

In a worst-case scenario, Marysville, for instance, could reduce its teaching force by as many as 50 through attrition and layoffs.

Add job cuts from declining enrollment into the mix and 25 teaching positions could be lost in Stanwood next year.

The Snohomish School District is looking at how to trim $5 million based on the proposals before the Legislature. Eight separate committees have examined ways to cut spending since December and have come up with a variety of suggestions, such as trimming administration, reducing bus routes and tightening other expenses.

In his 20 years as a superintendent in Washington, Snohomish Superintendent Bill Mester said the budget picture is “hands down by far the worst” he has seen.

“I think sometimes people think schools are going to be exempt from a declining economy,” said Gary Platt, business and operations director for the Stanwood-Camano School District. “We will feel it, too.”

In Marysville, about 85 percent of the budget is personnel. Much of the remaining 15 percent are critical operational costs, such as heat and lighting, meaning job cuts are likely.

“There’s no easy way to do that without impacting staff,” said Larry Nyland, Marysville’s superintendent.

School leaders spent much of their time this week dissecting the state budget proposals, which are complex in the ways they mix state and federal funding sources.

Districts say it is too early to gauge the full impact.

“It’s sort of a murky can of worms,” said Andy Muntz, a Mukilteo School District spokesman.

Even if it taps into its reserves, Mukilteo expects the Senate proposal would force cuts of $5.9 million from the district budget, while the House version would mean $2.5 million in cuts.

“The margin is really wide as to what kind of impact it will have,” Muntz said.

An online survey of 1,200 Mukilteo School District residents shows maintaining class size is the biggest priority.

Both House and Senate spending plans would suspend cost-of-living increases and training days for teachers, which could save hundreds of millions of dollars without a reduction in current services.

Other cuts hit existing services hard.

The Senate plan would eliminate $297 million the state is investing in class size reductions for students in kindergarten through fourth grade. In Stanwood, for instance, that could mean seven fewer teachers.

Federal money from the stimulus package will be given to local school districts, but there are strings attached. For instance, some money must be earmarked to special education and to Title I schools, which have high percentages of students from low-income families.

As painful as the cuts will be, school leaders hope the Legislature and governor can reach a budget compromise soon. By state law, schools are required to notify teachers by May 15 if their contracts will be renewed.

Eric Stevick: 425-339-3446, stevick@heraldnet.com.