Western Washington’s ports are bracing for a deep slump later this month, as the president’s standoff with China over tariffs is expected to stifle the flow of goods.
Port of Seattle Commissioner Ryan Calkins predicts a 40% reduction in cargo, as President Donald Trump continues his tariff crusade with 145% levies on China, which has responded with retaliatory measures. That lost business means a similar drop in work for local longshoremen, truckers and warehouse workers.
On a press call Thursday with port officials and senators from Washington, Oregon and California, Calkins said the effects “will ripple out through the whole economy in our port communities.”
“Fewer ships from across the Pacific means less cargo at our ports,” said U.S. Sen Patty Murray of Washington. “Less cargo at our ports means less goods for our truckers to transport, and that ultimately means bare shelves for our retailers and the American consumer.”
Murray, a Democrat representing one of the most trade-dependent states in the nation, compared the looming problem for small businesses reliant on trade to their plight during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Up to this point, local ports have seen surging traffic as shippers looked to get ahead of the tariffs Trump has long promised. While he has pulled back drastic levies planned across the board, the taxes on Chinese imports remain.
International imports in March were up 18% from March 2024 at the ports of Seattle and Tacoma, according to the Northwest Seaport Alliance, which oversees both. Exports increased almost 3%.
In Seattle, total trade volume was still up 7.3% from March 24 to April 24 this year compared to last year.
Washington’s ports are still reeling from the consequences of tariffs imposed when Trump was first in office.
That time around, import taxes on India undercut a booming apple export industry, with 11,000 containers shipped from Seattle and Tacoma in 2018 falling to about 360, said Dick Marzano, a Port of Tacoma commissioner. Years later, that number only returned to around 3,500 in 2024, a testament to the potential long tail of protectionist trade policies.
In a White House press briefing Thursday, top Trump adviser Stephen Miller defended the continued tariffs.
“We need to have a trade relationship with China that does not do harm to our nation’s economic and national security,” he said. “At the same time, tariffs will bring significant revenue into this country that will allow us to pursue our dramatic plan of tax cuts and reforms.”
Calkins was in Virginia this week trying to gin up business from “renewable energy cargo,” like wind turbine blades and transformers. The seaport alliance has also sent delegates to Vietnam and South Korea in hopes of finding more customers to diversify away from relying on China.
“We’re looking at all avenues to open up markets,” Marzano said.
But all those conversations are “conditional on resolution to the trade dispute,” Calkins said.
“We’re having to play the long game here in hopes that either Trump comes to his senses,” he added, “or Congress and Republicans in Congress are willing to check his power.”
Other threats and oversight
Meanwhile, the state this week warned of trouble from China potentially suspending Boeing imports due to growing trade tensions with the United States.
Last year, Washington’s top export was civilian aircraft, engines and parts, worth $17 billion, according to the state Office of Financial Management. China accounted for $4 billion of that. Losing that revenue could, in turn, cost the state over $19 million in business and occupation tax proceeds.
The warned suspension, which China has walked back, could mean 19,000 fewer jobs and $1.7 billion in lost labor income.
At the same time, new car registrations in Washington surged 18%, partly due to consumer anticipation that tariffs could push up auto prices, according to the Office of Financial Management.
Washington state Treasurer Mike Pellicciotti met with local officials in Port Angeles on Tuesday. They told him about flagging logging exports and tourism from Canada, as well as businesses “freezing plans while they hope for more stable future conditions.”
“This is the backbone of the economy being broken all while the cost of groceries, housing and services are going up,” Pellicciotti told reporters Wednesday. “America is losing and growing weaker under the president’s economic policies.”
Pellicciotti was one of 11 state financial officers to pen a letter Wednesday to Republican congressional leadership calling on them to assert their authority in trade and broader fiscal policy.
“We will continue to do our part: safeguarding public funds, managing risk, and investing in our people,” they wrote to House Speaker Mike Johnson, of Louisiana, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, of South Dakota. “But if Congress does not rise to this moment, no state government will be able to shield its citizens from the consequences.”
U.S. Sen. Maria Cantwell, a Democrat from Washington, has bipartisan legislation aiming to do exactly that.
Introduced last month, Cantwell’s Trade Review Act of 2025 would require the president to notify Congress of the imposition or increase in a tariff within 48 hours. The notice must explain the rationale and analyze potential impacts to the country’s businesses and consumers.
Within 60 days, Congress would have to pass a joint resolution approving the new tariff, or it would expire. Congress could also end tariffs at any time via resolution.
While the measure has attracted some Republican support, it has little chance of overcoming the hefty Trump-loyal wing of the party. Though Johnson opened the door ever so slightly Wednesday for potential congressional intervention.
On Wednesday, a separate resolution seeking to undo Trump’s import taxes failed on a 49-49 vote in the U.S. Senate, with three Republicans joining Democrats.
This story was originally published in the Washington State Standard.
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