Burke: Take no comfort in our distance from disaster

By Tom Burke

My sister-in-law, Theresa, and her family lives near Wilmington, North Carolina. Hurricane Florence came in their front door, took a seat at the kitchen table, got comfortable for way too long, then left, gifting them 26 inches of rain and biblical flooding.

But as we followed their plight from a distance, thinking, “How are those warm, loving people coping” (pretty well, thank heavens) we also acknowledged how lucky we are we don’t have hurricanes.

And after reading story after story of folks ill-prepared for this multi-week ordeal, I realized my neighbors here are mostly ill-prepared for the most common Western Washington form of natural disaster — severe weather and flooding — as well as our most serious threat —earthquakes — whether the “Big One” or just a “minor” 7.6 temblor.

I’ve written about disaster prep before, recounting Aesop’s grasshopper-and-ant lesson and pondering the morality of helping, or not helping, neighbors who have consciously refused to help themselves.

But rather than offer my personal perspective, let’s listen to Scott North, former Herald reporter and editor and now with Snohomish County’s Department of Emergency Management. Here’s a sampling of what he had to say about Florence and how it relates to our collective state of (un?)preparedness.

When you ask what most frightens the experts, loss of life is their biggest fear. But “distance and separation,” as in the distance between family members if disaster strikes and the separation when some are at school, some at work and some at home ranks high. Florence’s week-plus warning made it easy for Theresa to gather her clan and flee. With an earthquake, because it strikes without warning, families could be scattered from South Lake Union to Everett to Monroe, and that is devastating. So plan ahead.

And when planning ahead, North’s advice is to prepare for the worst, albeit least-likely disaster, The Big One in order to be ready for the most likely, severe weather with roof-ripping winds, Noah-grade rain, and North Carolina-like flooding.

The county agency teams drill constantly, like all good first-responders, sharpening practical skills. But the county also uses table-top simulations to hone management skills, training to integrate across governmental agencies and non-governmental organizations.

One of the big lessons from the last big multi-agency drill, 2016’s Cascadia Rising, was that Washington state officials called their own response plans “grossly inadequate,” and the state was at risk of a humanitarian disaster within 10 days of the quake. Which means, experts say, we regular folks should ditch the old advice to prepare for three days without help and be ready for two weeks without aid, and, realistically, consider supplies for three months of extreme hardship.

“Why so long?” you ask. Simple. A 9.5-level quake puts Western Washington’s transportation grid at risk of total failure; think mixing I-5 (and its bridges and overpasses), or I-405 (gridlocked on a regular work day) or two-lane U.S. 2 with landslides, pancaked bridges, knocked-out ports, and the closed passes. As Wilmington has been made an island by flooding, we’ll be an island isolated by closed roads, failed rail traffic, and even if stuff gets to the ports, how does it get inland? (Hint: It won’t.)

North isn’t trying to scare anyone (although I am). He says we need to register an appropriate level of concern. He’s right. He also says we need to act on that concern. He’s right again.

But based on my best SWAG (Scientific Wild A** Guess), most people are not ready for an afternoon’s closure on I-5 or two hours without cell service, let alone a real disaster.

North’s major message is simple: Get Smart. Get Prepared.

Getting smart is easy. There are enough books, pamphlets and fact sheets to get us through any disaster up to and including the Apocalypse.

But, gentle reader, as Nike would say, ya gotta “Just do it.”

And here’s a great goal for getting it done: Oct. 18.

Why? Because at 10:18 am on Oct. 18, millions of people worldwide will practice how to drop, cover, and hold on during Great ShakeOut Earthquake drills.

The Great ShakeOut website: https://www.shakeout.org/washington/ offers information on what to do and how to do it.

The county’s DEM people have dedicated their lives (and are willing to risk their lives) to keep us safe. They take lessons from far-away events such as Florence, but have lived through some closer tragedies, such as Oso.

So when they sound a warning, and they are sounding a warning, take heed.

It’s important we learn how to “Drop, Cover and Hold On.” But it’s equally important to prepare for the aftermath and not be a victim of the “humanitarian disaster” that could follow, after you uncover, let go, and pick yourself off the floor.

Tom Burke’s email address is t.burke.column@gmail.com.