Comment: A bumpy travel season for U.S. tourists, destinations

By Andrea Felsted / Bloomberg Opinion

The travel industry is experiencing a bout of turbulence.

Under pressure along multiple fronts, U.S. airlines and hotels are being buffeted the most. But given broader concerns over consumer confidence, as well as a slowdown in the market for pricy handbags and watches, European tour operators and those serving luxury travelers should buckle up too.

Donald Trump’s trade war is taking its toll on our wanderlust. Concerns about the climate for tourists led to an almost 10 percent drop in arrivals of non-U.S. citizens by plane in March (though this could also have been influenced by the timing of Easter, which fell in April this year). It’s true U.S. inbound tourism hadn’t fully bounced back after the pandemic, but the added weakness, especially from fewer Canadian travelers, has been unhelpful.

It’s not just the direct effects of the trade war and reports of tourists being held at the border. There are signs that recessionary fears are creeping in, while government cuts are hurting business travel. Future Partners, which polls 4,000 American leisure travelers each month, found that while sentiment toward vacations hasn’t fallen off, some consumers were starting to adapt their plans.

In March, before so-called “Liberation Day,” almost 70 percent of respondents expected to make at least one spending adjustment over the next six months in order to save money on their getaways. Although only 9 percent anticipated canceling vacations, 24 percent said they intended to take fewer trips, while 14 percent planned to travel domestically rather than internationally.

More thrifty behaviors are showing up elsewhere: Booking Holdings Inc. said some American consumers, particularly at the lower end of the market, were taking shorter trips. On both sides of the Atlantic, some consumers are waiting before booking their vacations, a classic signal of uncertainty.

But higher star-rated hotels were providing more resilient, Booking said. Hyatt Hotels Corp. said its all-inclusive resorts as well as its more upmarket properties, such as Andaz and The Standard, were still enjoying strong demand. Less upmarket hotels were more challenged. Although Marriott International Inc., which operates the Ritz-Carlton and St. Regis, cut its outlook, the downgrade was less severe than most peers. So far, the rich aren’t checking out of their suites.

AirDNA, which tracks the vacation rental market, found that U.S. bookings for the peak summer months were down significantly at lower-priced properties, with more strength at the top end.

Bookings are up in Europe, most notably for pricier rentals, according to AirDNA. This could be the corollary of Europeans choosing to avoid the U.S. and booking closer to home, as well as Canadians looking for alternative destinations.

Whitbread Plc, which operates the budget Premier Inn chain in the United Kingdom and Germany, said that its low-cost hotels could benefit from Europeans choosing to visit the U.K. instead of the U.S. Europe’s strength also likely reflects rich Americans still traveling to Paris and Milan; for now at least.

Not only is this lucrative trade at risk, so are intra-European trips, due to the German economy likely stagnating this year and weak consumer confidence in the U.K.; both big tourist-exporting countries. Add in a period of unseasonably warm weather in Britain, and more Brits could hold off booking for the peak summer months or simply stay home. Anti-tourism protests are an ever present worry. TUI AG, the world’s biggest tour operator, is being cautious in the number of rooms and flights it adds given the uncertainty. It will update the market this week.

There is also a danger that the big spenders start cutting back. As with luxury, top-end demand is correlated with stock market moves, and although the S&P 500 Index has recovered from its Liberation Day lows, the gyrations will have eaten into wealth.

According to research group Morning Consult, of the top 20 brands favored by Americans earning at least $250,000 a year, almost half highlighted luxury travel. In contrast, only one seller of physical luxury goods — Hermes International SCA — featured. If wealthier consumers begin to tighten their Celine belts, it won’t just be upmarket boutiques that suffer.

With some tariffs paused and markets stabilizing, conditions may perk up. Marriott said last week that excluding the shift in Easter timing, revenue per available room in the U.S. and Canada, a key performance indicator, improved in April compared with March. Walt Disney Co. reported second-quarter results that beat Wall Street expectations and raised its outlook for the full year, citing strong performances at its theme parks, while InterContinental Hotels Group was one of the few lodging companies to maintain its annual guidance.

There might also be some offsets to the current woes, such as currency movements. With a weaker dollar, some European families who were priced out of a trip to Florida might now take that Disney vacation. Cruises could offer a port in the storm, notes Richard Clarke, analyst at Bernstein. They tend to have an older customer base and multiple destinations per vacation, make them good value for money.

But with relief on some tariffs potentially short-lived, and red lights flashing on consumer spending on both sides of the Atlantic, travel companies and their investors should brace for a bumpy flight.