Comment: Better understanding of climate change a click away

A new online tool shows what current location resembles your community with a warmer climate.

  • Solomon Dobrowski Los Angeles Times (TNS)
  • Monday, November 1, 2021 1:30am
  • OpinionCommentary

By Solomon Dobrowski / Los Angeles Times

The Clark Fork River drains much of western Montana, bringing water from the Crown of the Continent to the Columbia River and the Pacific Ocean. My daily commute via bicycle crosses the Clark Fork most days and has allowed me to discern a rhythm and tempo in how the seasons come and go; a composition of daily weatherlike notes in a musical score that is the climate of Missoula, Mont.

Our global climate is changing. This is not ambiguous or uncertain. It is our reality. And with it, the need to communicate the importance of climate in our daily lives has never been more acute. Unfortunately, the ability of scientists to describe changes in the climate system remains primitive.

We present climate as a caricature of its true self. We use average temperature and precipitation as a thumbnail sketch for describing complex systems. We talk about a future that is 2 degrees Celsius warmer than today. We come armed with analysis, data, sophisticated graphs and maps — as if this will resonate with the wider public.

ADVERTISEMENT
0 seconds of 0 secondsVolume 0%
Press shift question mark to access a list of keyboard shortcuts
00:00
00:00
00:00
 

I liken the challenge to describing a song to someone who has never heard it: “It is in the key of C and has 4/4 timing.” The description is factually accurate but fails to inform because it lacks context, emotion and the framing that a listener brings.

Public perceptions of climate change make it clear that we need to improve how we communicate about these issues. For example, in a 2020 survey more than 70 precent of Americans agreed that climate change is happening and that it will harm future generations. Yet only 43 percent thought climate change would harm them personally.

Most people cannot contextualize how climate change will affect their lives despite research that suggests that understanding climate change on a local level is critical for public engagement on the subject. Instead, the dominant mode of communication is a constant barrage of negative headlines about receding glaciers, burning landscapes and extreme storms in distant places. Research shows that such negativity may be driving disengagement in climate action.

How can we frame climate change in a way that people can relate it to where they live and play? When describing complex issues, people have long relied on the use of analogy. As Winston Churchill put it, “Apt analogies are among the most formidable weapons of the rhetorician.” This applies equally in the sciences as the humanities. “What will the climate of my future look like?” This question has all the hallmarks of a problem that can benefit from analogy. Because climate is complex, difficult to describe and requires the context and experience that come with living in a place. This is also a question that is relevant to all of humanity as we try to prepare for the future.

An apt analogy for a future climate is not a rhetorical flourish. It is a place. Scientists call these locations “climate analogs,” present-day places that share similar climates to those projected for another location in the future. Climate analogs contextualize climate change by answering a simple question: “Where can I find the climate of my future, today?”

For residents of Los Angeles, it’s the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula near Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. For those who live in Washington, D.C., it’s near Louisburg, North Carolina.

Those comparisons were made using an interactive online tool, the Analog Atlas — plus2c.org/ — that I helped develop as part of a team of researchers in an effort to improve how we communicate about climate — and to help users contextualize climate change effects. The atlas allows users to pick any location on land on the globe, then identifies the present-day site that best matches the location’s future climate. Users can select two warming scenarios — a global average temperature increase of 2 degrees Celsius, roughly expected to occur around the year 2050, or a more dire late-century increase of 4 degrees Celsius. The climate analog can be explored using maps, satellite images and street views.

What will the climate of Missoula feel like in a warmer world? Check out Lewiston, Idaho. Missoula sits in a valley in the Northern Rockies surrounded by pine forest. Our mornings are cool, our summers are relatively mild. Lewiston is nearly 150 miles to the southwest on the edge of the Palouse prairie as it transitions into the mountains. Lewiston suggests Missoula will have warmer nights, hotter summers, less snow, fewer trees and longer fire seasons.

Lewiston is also a model for how Missoula can prepare for a changing climate. What is Lewiston’s per capita energy and water use? What crops do they grow regionally? What pests and weeds do they contend with? Of course, Lewiston is not a perfect analog. All analogies are imperfect, but they can give us insights.

As a scientist, I have come to realize that complexity and uncertainty challenge us to develop novel ways of communicating. I am not alone in this realization. A growing body of research emphasizes that scientific beliefs are linked to people’s identity, and science communication has more to do with how we present information than the evidence itself.

Twenty years ago I was oblivious to this reality and content with describing my work in the limited parlance of science. But now as a father concerned about the legacy we leave our children, this approach seems inadequate. As scientists, we need to illuminate how changes in our climate will affect the daily rhythms of people’s lives so they can prepare for an uncertain future. We need to appeal to emotion and a person’s sense of community and place. The cost of inaction, apathy and ignorance is simply too high to ignore.

Solomon Dobrowski is a professor of landscape ecology at the University of Montana. He studies climate change and its effects on ecosystems.

Talk to us

> Give us your news tips.

> Send us a letter to the editor.

> More Herald contact information.

More in Opinion

Sarah Weiser / The Herald
Air Force One touches ground Friday morning at Boeing in Everett.
PHOTO SHOT 02172012
Editorial: There’s no free lunch and no free Air Force One

Qatar’s offer of a 747 to President Trump solves nothing and leaves the nation beholden.

toon
Editorial cartoons for Thursday, May 15

A sketchy look at the news of the day.… Continue reading

The Washington State Legislature convenes for a joint session for a swearing-in ceremony of statewide elected officials and Governor Bob Ferguson’s inaugural address, March 15, 2025.
Editorial: 4 bills that need a second look by state lawmakers

Even good ideas, such as these four bills, can fail to gain traction in the state Legislature.

FILE - The sun dial near the Legislative Building is shown under cloudy skies, March 10, 2022, at the state Capitol in Olympia, Wash. An effort to balance what is considered the nation's most regressive state tax code comes before the Washington Supreme Court on Thursday, Jan. 26, 2023, in a case that could overturn a prohibition on income taxes that dates to the 1930s. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren, File)
Editorial: What state lawmakers acheived this session

A look at some of the more consequential policy bills adopted by the Legislature in its 105 days.

Liz Skinner, right, and Emma Titterness, both from Domestic Violence Services of Snohomish County, speak with a man near the Silver Lake Safeway while conducting a point-in-time count Tuesday, Jan. 23, 2024, in Everett, Washington. The man, who had slept at that location the previous night, was provided some food and a warming kit after participating in the PIT survey. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
Editorial: County had no choice but to sue over new grant rules

New Trump administration conditions for homelessness grants could place county in legal jeopardy.

Comment: Governor should veto change to mortgage interest deduction

A provision in state tax legislation would increase mortgage costs for families buying homes.

Comment: Fair’s fair; kids get 3 dolls, Trump wants 3 jets

Trump’s tariffs require austerity from Americans, except when Trump sees a shinier aircraft on the tarmac.

Comment: Welcome South African refugees, yes, but Afghans, too

There has been no good explanation why Afrikaners are admitted, when so many others are turned away.

Goldberg: Is RFK Jr.’s MAHA movement suffering irony deficiency

His pick for surgeon general is faltering because she isn’t attacking vaccines earnestly enough.

Comment: Nonprofits filling gap left by federal cuts isn’t answer

Relying solely on donors to fulfill needs means providers no longer are accountable to the people.

toon
Editorial cartoons for Wednesday, May 14

A sketchy look at the news of the day.… Continue reading

Welch: Local elections work best when voters prepare for task

With ballots set, now’s the time to study issues and ask candidates where they stand and what they’ll do.

Support local journalism

If you value local news, make a gift now to support the trusted journalism you get in The Daily Herald. Donations processed in this system are not tax deductible.