Comment: Here’s what ‘losing’ shutdown looks like for Democrats

By Nia-Malika Henderson / Bloomberg Opinion

And just like that, the longest government shutdown in history is poised to end. Republicans refused to extend health care subsidies for 20 million Americans, and, after 41 days and deep cuts to the federal food assistance program, enough Democrats crossed the aisle to end the standoff.

This was not an entirely unexpected outcome given the GOP’s commitment to starving the federal government and tanking the Affordable Care Act. Democrats took a big risk and learned how difficult it is to win a game of chicken against opponents who don’t mind crashing the car. But in losing this battle, Democrats have won a larger and politically important fight. That is the messaging fight over the cost of living, particularly health care, that will be central to the midterm elections in 2026.

Last week’s election results, with centrist and progressive candidates winning on affordability, showed how salient this issue is. And Democrats, in their anger with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, must not lose sight of this. Rather than train their ire on Schumer, Congressional Democrats — and the Democratic posting class — should keep the focus on Republicans. (More on Schumer later).

The shutdown revealed a level of cruelty in the party in power. The Trump administration fired federal workers; fought court orders that mandated the continuation of SNAP benefits for 42 million needy Americans; and refused to ensure relief for Americans already getting hit with impending health insurance price hikes, premiums are set to double if the covid-era subsidies expire. Now it’s Republicans who must contend with the political blowback.

“We need to deal with the health care issues as Republicans, we can’t just let the Obamacare thing lapse and do nothing and people have no health care and have to pay double,” said New Jersey Republican Jeff Van Drew, a former Democrat, on Fox Business on Sunday. “That’s wrong. It’s counterproductive and it’s going to hurt us politically and I just don’t think it’s the right thing to do.”

Democrats agree. They offered Republicans a one-year extension of the subsidies, which would have neutralized the issue for 2026. Instead, the deal they cut sets up a doomed Senate vote on extending the ACA subsidies. The deal will also extend current levels of government funding through the end of January, reverse the layoffs of federal workers, and ensure SNAP benefits are fully paid through next September. The Senate also agreed on year-long funding for the Department of Veterans Affairs, the Department of Agriculture and the Food and Drug Administration.

The House, out since Sept. 19, is set to vote on Wednesday. But the path ahead won’t be easy for House Speaker Mike Johnson, even when the government is back open, likely later this week.

His caucus is fracturing as MAGA stalwarts in the House and in the podcast world suggest that Republicans have lost the upper hand on economic populism.

“I would really like to see nonstop meetings at the WH on domestic policy not foreign policy and foreign country’s leaders,” Georgia Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene posted on X in response to Trump hosting the leader of Syria, once designated a terrorist. “Start by hauling in the health insurance company’s executives and let’s start formulating our Republican plan to save America from Obamacare and ACA tax credits that have skyrocketed the cost of health insurance!”

For their part, Republicans have said that they have some sort of plan for making health care cheaper, a claim they have made for the last 15 years. Johnson, who hasn’t committed to bringing a health care vote to the floor, said that there was a way to bring down the cost of health care, while also increasing access and quality.

“We’ve got notebooks full of ideas on how to do that,” he said on Fox Business.

Notebooks.

Democrats have come out of the shutdown fight with a simpler, clearer line:

“The reality is America is too expensive,” said Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries at a press briefing. “And far too many people are struggling to live paycheck to paycheck. They can’t thrive, they can barely survive.”

That’s the midterm message.

President Trump seems committed to continuing down the same chaotic path, ignoring the everyday sticker-shock experiences of Americans in favor of his version of the economy, even as his allies suggest a course correction.

Democrats might be mad at Schumer, who likely won’t lead the Senate caucus beyond 2026, but the focus on the septuagenarian minority leader is an inside-the-beltway distraction that average Americans can’t be bothered with. Once the Schumer blame game ends and the government re-opens, it will be Republicans who will be on the hook to address elevated health care costs and Americans’ anxieties about the economy. Democrats should take the win. It will lead to others.

Nia-Malika Henderson is a politics and policy columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. A former senior political reporter for CNN and the Washington Post, she has covered politics and campaigns for almost two decades.