By Jonathan Bernstein / Bloomberg Opinion
Judging by opinion polls, Donald Trump looks to be the overwhelming favorite for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is the clear alternative. But news this week from South Carolina suggests that Republicans aren’t nearly as sold on Trump as the polling suggests.
Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., declared Wednesday that he is officially “exploring” a presidential run. In practical terms, that means the campaign he started some time ago is becoming a bit more formal. How serious is his bid? When asked whether he would support Donald Trump if the former president were to win the Republican nomination, Scott simply said: “I plan on being the nominee.”
On the surface, Scott’s chances don’t appear fantastic; he’s running at about 1 percent of the vote nationally in the polls that bother to include him. Even a survey of likely Republican voters in South Carolina had him at only 7 percent, well behind former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who in turn were some 20 percentage points behind Trump. Indeed, Trump has been gradually gaining in national polling and now gets about half of all Republican voters in these very early soundings.
And yet, Scott is jumping in. He joins the three formally declared candidates with conventional credentials — Trump, Haley and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson — as well as half-dozen or more contenders including DeSantis and former Vice President Mike Pence who are expected to announce campaigns soon.
That all these candidates are moving forward indicates they believe the contest is up for grabs, which means they are hearing that message from people active within the Republican Party. Traditional politicians like Scott and Haley care about their reputations and would be reluctant to move further down the campaign trail if the signs pointed strongly to one candidate.
Indeed, the stature of the Republicans challenging Trump is a strong sign that the party doesn’t see Trump — or even a Trump-DeSantis pairing — as overwhelming favorites.
The hard evidence we have says the same thing. Trump has a lot more party backing than he did during his 2016 run, but it doesn’t come close to the support that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had in 2016 or then-Vice President Al Gore had in 2000. So far, current elected officials endorsing Trump include two governors, six senators and 41 members of the House. That’s not bad. But it’s more similar to Joe Biden’s early endorsement lead in the 2020 contest than a truly impressive show of strength for a candidate who, after all, has the strongest on-paper credentials of any nomination candidate in more than 100 years.
Of course, Trump had practically no party support at all in 2016 and won anyway, albeit narrowly. There is every possibility that he will win more easily this time, given that there is far less resistance to him now than there was then. At the same time, for a former president and two-time nominee, the opposition he faces from some within the Republican Party is apparently convincing enough to Scott and others that they think taking him on is a viable option.
As for DeSantis, his endorsements from some eight members of the House aren’t going to scare anyone.
Trump’s polling lead is a nice asset, but it’s too early to know how many of those who currently say they would vote for him will still support him once they learn something about the alternatives.
And that’s before we see how Trump’s legal trouble plays out. So far, his polling numbers have risen a bit after the news from his indictment in New York, but there will certainly be more news, and very likely more indictments, to come.
Scott has plenty of work to do even if Trump fades and DeSantis fails to build on his early successes. So far Scott has shown a knack for sticking with the mainstream of the party without angering anyone. That could create an appealing contrast to the other candidates, but it also might leave him without an opening to take on his rivals.
Is Scott likely to be the nominee? No. But what Scott is hearing must suggest that Trump isn’t a sure thing and that DeSantis isn’t a beloved second choice. That’s a situation that Scott — or one of the other seeming longshots — could capitalize on.
Jonathan Bernstein is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering politics and policy. A former professor of political science at the University of Texas at San Antonio and DePauw University, he wrote A Plain Blog About Politics.
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