Comment: Young male voters already regretting support for Trump

By Nia-Malika Henderson / Bloomberg Opinion

One of the most surprising datapoints from President Donald Trump’s 2024 victory was his strength among young voters, a demographic that is typically a core part of the Democratic base. In 2020, President Joe Biden won this age group (18-29) by 24 points. Yet, in 2024, Trump closed the gap, with former Vice President Kamala Harris winning this same group by just 4 points.

Now, a Pew Research Center poll shows Trump steadily losing ground with a larger young cohort, revealing weaknesses in the very group that helped him win in November. In February, Trump had a 92% approval rating among voters under 35 who cast a ballot for him. Since then, his approval rating has slumped to 69%, a loss of 23 percentage points, which is the largest drop of any age group among Trump’s voters.

The gains Trump made in 2024 were due to his strength among young men, with a majority backing Biden in 2020 and then switching to Trump four years later; 56% backed Biden in 2020 and 56% backed Trump in 2024. Trump did this by marshaling support among key figures in the “manosphere,” promising a “masculinist” agenda and administration, one where men didn’t have to apologize. Backing Trump was, for some young men, a vote for traditional masculinity. Some focus group participants said it was essentially a vote to make men great again.

On this score, Trump has delivered in spades, elevating men like Pete Hegseth and Elon Musk and waging war on DEI in all forms. Trump has also delivered as a culture warrior, targeting transgender Americans, including banning them from serving in the military and restricting access to gender-affirming care for young people. Legislatively, Trump has delivered on campaign promises like no taxes on tips, a pledge that resonated with young men in particular.

But Trump has failed to deliver in tangible ways on two fronts that are important to his base, and especially to younger voters: the economy and Jeffrey Epstein.

First, consider the economy. The last jobs report showed losses in manufacturing and construction jobs and an uptick in health care jobs, not exactly the kind of economy that favors men. As my colleague Bloomberg Opinion colleague Allison Schrager puts it, “The Jobs Market Is Showing Signs of a ‘He-cession’” with the unemployment rate rising among men ages 20-24, including those with college degrees. Moreover, prices are ticking up according to the most recent Consumer Price Index and retailers are blaming Trump’s tariff policies. The coming months could prove even worse, as more companies pass price hikes along to their customers.

Trump has long been a master of spin. But it is much harder to spin people’s everyday reality, which for some young men means little upward mobility. A May survey by the Young Men’s Research Initiative shows that 47% of men under 30 say the economy is getting worse. “Their concerns are not that dissimilar to many Americans. No. 1 is inflation. No. 2 is cost of housing. They’re worried about their future,” said Aaron Smith, the founder of the Young Men’s Research Initiative in a June NPR interview. “So they still feel this intense dissatisfaction with the status quo, this sense of not having a clear path to the middle class.”

Smith told me that Trump’s tariff policies are unpopular and that young men are disappointed that Trump hasn’t delivered on his campaign promises of reducing the cost of living. The risk is that in the next election, they simply stay home. “The drop in support for President Trump has not yet led to a corresponding rise for Democrats,” he told me. “Young men are simply less attached to political parties, meaning that both sides have substantial work to do to win their support going forward.”

Then there’s the continuing saga around Jeffrey Epstein, a convicted sex offender who committed suicide while in custody in 2019. For weeks, Trump and members of his administration, some of whom spread anti-Democratic conspiracy theories about Epstein, have been trying to quiet the MAGA base after the FBI declared there was no client list and that the disgraced financier died by suicide. The same manosphere that boosted Trump isn’t letting his administration off the hook on Epstein, even as Trump has tried to dismiss the whole thing as a hoax.

Podcaster Joe Rogan, widely credited with helping to deliver young male voters for Trump in 2025, has warned that Americans won’t forget Trump’s handling of Epstein; but stopped short of telling people to switch their votes. “The problem is, do we have any power? What do we do? You know, what do you do?” Rogan asked on a recent episode of his show, the “Joe Rogan Experience.” “You definitely can change the way you vote, if it comes up again, but, the problem is, this is a bipartisan issue.”

Candace Owens, another influential conservative podcaster, has also had harsh words for Trump over his handling of the Epstein files. “He’s just handed over the reins to the deep state, as evidenced by the fact that he is letting go of the Jeffrey Epstein story,” she said on her podcast last week.

The Epstein case is distinct in that it, unusually, pits Trump against his base. “Trump is usually so transactional with the base. The base asks for something, he listens. I would say he listens to the base way more than any politician that I’ve seen,” said Andrew Schulz, a comedian, on his “Flagrant” podcast last month. “On this, he is rebuking the base, like almost like spitting in their face.”

For weeks, the same figures who lauded Trump are now criticizing him over Epstein, and casting him as protecting the rich and powerful. The common thread is a sense of disappointment — even betrayal — that Trump hasn’t delivered.

The GOP is betting that young voters, particularly men, will become a permanent part of the base. Yet, failing to deliver on Epstein could cost them ground. Especially if their policies aren’t giving young men a brighter economic future.

Nia-Malika Henderson is a politics and policy columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. A former senior political reporter for CNN and the Washington Post, she has covered politics and campaigns for almost two decades.