By Paul Roberts / For The Herald
On Nov. 30, global leaders will gather in Dubai to attend COP28, the annual United Nations conference under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. COP, shorthand for the Conference of the Parties, is scheduled from Nov. 30 through Dec. 12.
The agenda for COP28 includes: taking stock of progress in meeting the Paris agreement to limit global temperatures to 1.5 degrees to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels (global stocktake); examining loss and damage due to climate impacts; climate finance; mitigation and adaptation.
Conference attendees will face some hard realities this year. New studies and data show acceleration of climate-related impacts, and the need for a more urgent response to the climate crisis.
Taking stock: The global stocktake will be the first formal assessment of progress in meeting the Paris agreement. In October, a U.N.’s technical advisory body issued a sobering report, finding that the world is not on track to meet the long-term goals of the Paris accord. To strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change “all parties … including civil society, the private sector, financial institutions, cities and other subnational authorities, local communities and Indigenous Peoples” must support accelerating actions to achieve sustainable development (see Eco-Nomics No. 6, Herald, Sept. 30). Countries will be asked to agree on accelerating actions and next steps, particularly in important sectors such as energy, transport, food, and land use.
Examining loss and damage due to climate impacts: At COP27, the parties acknowledged the need for financial resources to assist developing countries vulnerable to the effects of climate change. These countries have contributed little to the climate crisis, but are experiencing loss and damage resulting from extreme weather, drought, fires and sea level rise. Since COP27, efforts have been underway to develop funding for these impacts. They will be considered for adoption at COP28.
Climate finance: In 2009, developed countries agreed to raise $100 billion each year by 2020 to help developing countries mitigate and adapt to climate change. This is in addition to funding for loss and damage. The goal has been extended through 2025. Developed countries have expressed confidence in meeting these targets, and wealthy countries who are contributing more to the climate crisis will be expected to meet this commitment and ensure access to future funding.
Mitigation: As an outcome of the global stocktake, COP28 will likely adopt more ambitious targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The nations of the world will be pressed to increase and accelerate their commitments. The recent agreement between the U.S. and China to work together to address the climate crisis is considered a positive step (tinyurl.com/StateSunnylands. While the agreement lacks specifics, the world’s two largest economies working together to address climate change is an encouraging sign for progress at COP28.
Adaptation: The global stocktake technical committee finds: “Climate change threatens all countries, communities and people around the world. There is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a livable and sustainable future.” Climate impacts — heat, floods, drought, wildfires and sea level rise — are increasing in frequency, intensity and cost. Responding to these events will be at the center of discussions at COP28.
New data and studies strengthen the case for more rapid reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. New research suggests climate impacts are accelerating faster than expected. Measuring impacts primarily with climate models may underestimate the sensitivity of Earth’s climate systems to emissions.
James Hanson, considered the godfather of climate science, published a paper in October asserting that climate analysis leans too heavily on global climate models and misses Earth’s history and observed climate processes. He argues that the world’s climate is significantly more sensitive to carbon emissions than the models or scientists have acknowledged or the public appreciates.
The last 12 months were the hottest ever recorded with average global temperatures at 1.3 C above pre-industrial levels according to Climate Central, a nonprofit science research group.
New studies reveal acceleration of melting sea ice and glaciers. Since 2000, temperatures in the Arctic have risen twice as fast as global average temperatures. Greenland’s glaciers and the floating ice shelves that protect the northern coast glaciers are melting at accelerated rates. The ice sheets are melting from the bottom as the oceans warm and melting glaciers contribute to acceleration of sea level rise.
The Fifth National Climate Assessment, published this month, confirms the acceleration of climate impacts affecting nearly every aspect of life and every region of the nation. Temperatures in the U.S. are rising more quickly than the rest of the planet. And climate-driven disasters are increasing in frequency, intensity and cost. According to NOAA, there have been 373 weather and climate disasters since 1980 exceeding $1 billion, and the total cost of these events exceeds $2.6 trillion.
Every increment of warming contributes to extreme weather and climate impacts. Urgency matters. Katherine Hayhoe, Director of the Climate Science Center at Texas Tech University, reminds us that: “everything we do matters. Every tenth of a degree of warming we avoid, there’s a benefit to that.”
Turning down Earth’s thermostat requires building a zero-emission economy and eliminating fossil fuel consumption to the greatest extent. Ending subsidies to the oil and gas industry is an obvious first step. COP28 provides the next best opportunity to take meaningful steps to limit warming.
Paul Roberts is retired and lives in Everett. His career spans over five decades in infrastructure, economics and environmental policy including advising Washington cities on climate change and past chair of the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency Board of Directors.
Eco-nomics
“Eco-nomics” is a series of articles exploring issues at the intersection of climate change and economics. Climate change (global warming) is caused by greenhouse gas emissions — carbon dioxide and methane chiefly — generated by human activities, primarily burning fossil fuels and agricultural practices. Global warming poses an existential threat to the planet. Successfully responding to this threat requires urgent actions — clear plans and actionable strategies — to rapidly reduce GHG emissions and adapt to climate-influenced events.
The Eco-nomics series, to be published every other week in The Herald, is focusing on mitigation and adaptation strategies viewed through the twin perspectives of science and economics.
Find links to the series thus far at tinyurl.com/HeraldEco-nomics.
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