By Paul Roberts / For The Herald
The basic science of global warming and climate change has been well known and documented for decades (“Eco-nomics: A brief history of how the climate crisis unfolded,” The Herald, Jan. 18). Burning fossil fuels generates heat trapping greenhouse gases, chiefly carbon dioxide and methane, warming the planet’s atmosphere and oceans, throwing our global climate into chaos.
Concentrations of greenhouse gases have been increasing along with global temperatures and impacts. At the beginning of the industrial revolution, carbon dioxide (CO2) levels were relatively stable at about 290 ppm. One hundred years later, by 1960, levels were 317 ppm, an increase of approximately 27 ppm. Since 1960 the rate of increase has accelerated: 1980, 338 ppm; 2000; 370 ppm; 2020, 414 ppm and today CO2 levels are 425 ppm. The past 10 years have been the hottest in recorded history along with increasing disasters: heat, wildfires, floods, drought, sea level rise and extreme storms.
Extreme events existed before the industrial revolution as part of natural climate variability. However, burning fossil fuels and increasing green-house gases exacerbates these events, making them more frequent, severe and costly. Katharine Hayhoe, chief climate scientist for the Nature Conservancy, said climate change has loaded the dice and is “supersizing many of our weather events, making them stronger, longer and more damaging.”
Attribution science — linking cause and effect — involves statistical methods and climate models to identify the human influence on particular weather events and long-term climate patterns. It allows scientists to link extreme weather events such as hurricanes, heatwaves, floods, and droughts to climate change with increasing precision.
On Tuesday, researchers with World Weather Attribution published a report that found climate change had increased the likelihood of a wildfire disaster in the highly-exposed Los Angeles area, further finding that the disaster exposed critical weaknesses in the a water infrastructure designed for routine fires rather than the large-scale fires experienced this month.
Linking human activities to changes in climate systems has practical applications in at least three areas.
First, and arguably most important, attribution science increases public awareness, connecting extreme weather events and global climate trends. It helps policy makers, utilities, businesses and communities adapt to a new normal. Historical trends are no longer reliable predictors of the future. Attribution science helps define changes for future decisions and investments regarding land use, infrastructure and emergency management. As the planet continues to warm, and climate impacts become more severe, attribution science can help guide efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation) and anticipate impacts and manage costs (adaptation).
Second, attribution science informs risk management. It can aid in understanding the costs associated with climate change and extreme events. Recent examples include Hurricane Helene flooding the southeastern U.S., including Asheville, N.C., and wildfires in Los Angeles. In both cases the scope and scale of the events and damage were not fully anticipated; or not anticipated at all. The cost to property and infrastructure is still being tallied, but will certainly amount to tens of billions of dollars and may be the costliest natural disasters in U.S. history. The effects on lives, livelihoods, health, ecosystems, economies, social and cultural structures, services and infrastructure are only now being fully understood and quantified. Recovery will take years and the implications for insurance and risk management are enormous.
Third, attribution science is emerging as a critical tool in climate litigation, regulation and defining legal liability. As best available science, it can incentivize governments, utilities and businesses to take actions prospectively to protect public health and safety, and the interests of ratepayers and shareholders, thereby limiting liability. It can help define reasonable actions that should be taken to avoid or limit injury and loss.
A recent example of attribution science in the Pacific Northwest was the heat dome in 2021. In that case an attribution study determined: “It is virtually certain that human-caused global warming increased the magnitude of the heat in the 2021 event.”
That information helped communities recognize that such events will become more frequent and intense in the future. As a result, communities are preparing or updating adaptation plans, emergency responses and protection for vulnerable populations and infrastructure.
The costs from natural disasters are rising globally and nationally along with temperatures. Climate change adds to these costs and risks. Since 1980 the U.S. has sustained 403 weather and climate disasters where damages reached or exceeded $1 billion. The total cost of these events exceeds $2.9 trillion and does not include hurricane Helene, Asheville or Los Angeles.
Accelerating temperatures and climate change means historic trends are no longer reliable predictors of the future. Attribution science can help define the new normal and prepare to adapt to a warmer world.
Paul Roberts is retired and lives in Everett. His career spans over five decades in infrastructure, economics and environmental policy including advising Washington cities on climate change and past chair of the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency Board of Directors.
Eco-nomics
“Eco-nomics” is a series of articles exploring issues at the intersection of climate change and economics. Climate change (global warming) is caused by greenhouse gas emissions — carbon dioxide and methane chiefly — generated by human activities, primarily burning fossil fuels and agricultural practices. Global warming poses an existential threat to the planet. Successfully responding to this threat requires urgent actions — clear plans and actionable strategies — to rapidly reduce GHG emissions and adapt to climate-influenced events.
The Eco-nomics series focuses on mitigation and adaptation strategies viewed through the twin perspectives of science and economics. Find links to the series thus far at tinyurl.com/HeraldEco-nomics.
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