By Paul Roberts / For The Herald
Successfully responding to climate change requires reducing greenhouse gases as quickly as possible by transitioning from fossil fuels to renewables (mitigation) and preparing for climate-influenced events (adaptation). The concepts are simple, implementation is complex. Let’s focus first on mitigation.
For more than 150 years the economy has run primarily on energy from fossil fuels, derived from extracting the decomposed remains of plants and animals (hydrocarbons; molecules of carbon and hydrogen), and processing coal, oil and natural gas into useable fuels. Quite apart from the climate crisis, the supply of fossil fuels is limited.
Burning fossil fuels emits greenhouse gases (GHGs) that trap the sun’s heat in the atmosphere resulting in global warming and climate change, and threatening our existence. To avoid the worst effects, we need to reduce GHG emissions as quickly as possible. The targets set in the Paris accord are to limit warming to between 1.5 degree Celsius and 2 degrees C. Reducing GHGs by 50 percent by 2030 and to net-zero by 2050 are generally recognized goals.
Making a quicker switch: Renewable energy from the sun and wind are potentially unlimited sources to replace fossil fuels. However, transitioning from fossil fuels to renewables will take political leadership, time and financial resources, all of which are in short supply. We cannot flip a switch and effect a massive change.
In 2021 John Doerr, engineer, venture capitalist and pioneer of Silicon Valley’s clean-tech movement, wrote “Speed & Scale,” an action plan for solving the climate crisis. He describes the actions we need to accelerate the transition to a zero-emission economy. Doerr’s recommendations include avoiding GHG emissions at the source where possible. If avoidance is not possible, conserve by making systems more efficient. To accomplish this, Doerr recommends: 1) electrifying everything, 2) decarbonizing the grid, 3) fixing food, 4) protecting nature, 5) cleaningup industry and 6) removing carbon.
Creating a zero-emission economy is a massive and complex undertaking. The preparation and conduct of World War II is arguably the best historical example to inform this effort. Then, the whole world was in some way engaged in, or effected by, the scope and scale of the conflict. The war effort required leadership, mobilization, speed and scale for all sectors of the economy. That same leadership, mobilization, speed and scale are needed now to tackle the climate crisis.
Transitioning to a zero-emission economy will impact all sectors, but the sector groups most effected are: energy, transportation, building and construction, agriculture and government. The arc of development for each sector includes: availability of technologies for zero emissions (or R&D to develop them), development and testing, manufacturing or production at scale, and affordable application (delivery to the market).
Getting there, cleaner: The motorized transportation sector examined here, illustrates the challenges and complexities associated with transitioning to a zero-emission economy. Non-motorized transportation will be covered in a future article focusing on local climate actions.
Transportation includes cars, trucks, buses, ships, planes and trains. For planes, trains, and ships, there are not yet viable alternatives to fossil fuels, though R&D is actively underway. Aviation R&D is being conducted in Everett and Snohomish County.
Light rail in metropolitan areas can currently operate at zero emissions. Sound Transit’s light rail operates on 100 percent clean energy.
For electric vehicles — cars, trucks and buses — renewable technologies exist but they are not yet fully at scale. Battery technologies are evolving as well as hydrogen technologies. Currently, lithium-ion batteries are the dominant source of power. Auto makers are looking at more advanced solid state lithium-ion, “Li-ion” batteries. Toyota and other auto makers are also exploring hydrogen cars. Currently, California is the only state with a hydrogen fuel network.
Buses and trucks present different demands, particularly regarding driving range and charging infrastructure. Obviously, long-haul trucks and buses with long-distance routes require batteries and charging infrastructure to meet their particular range requirements. Electric buses in dense urban areas generally require less range, and are already being put into service. Local examples include Everett Transit, Community Transit and King County Metro.
The race to decarbonize transportation has global economic and geo-political implications. Battery technologies require raw materials such as cobalt, lithium, copper and nickel. These minerals come from around the globe — Arabia to Zambia — and include China, Chile and the Congo. Reliable supply chains are a challenge as demand for raw materials increase along with prices.
The transportation sector reflects the challenges of transitioning to a zero-emission economy. The global demand for EVs is rapidly growing, and demand is chasing supply. Consumers want vehicles with long driving range, short charging times and competitive prices.
Cleaning up the grid: The growing demand for EVs is not yet synchronized with increased demand on the electricity grid or EV charging infrastructure. Moreover, EVs are only one source of growing demand for electricity. As we electrify everything, new demands will be placed on the grid. As Doerr points out, “You can’t decarbonize transportation without decarbonizing the grid.” This is true for all other sectors as well.
The transition to a zero emission economy is a high stakes, high-wire act, and earth is literally in the balance. Speed and scale are essential. So is political leadership, and capital to invest in the technologies necessary to meet these goals. Business as usual results in a warmer world, significant sea level rise, wildfires, droughts, flooding and economic and environmental chaos.
A zero-emission economy results in a sustainable future.
Paul Roberts is retired and lives in Everett. His career spans over five decades in infrastructure, economics and environmental policy including advising Washington cities on climate change.
Eco-nomics
“Eco-nomics” is a series of articles exploring issues at the intersection of climate change and economics. Climate change (global warming) is caused by greenhouse gas emissions — carbon dioxide and methane chiefly — generated by human activities, primarily burning fossil fuels and agricultural practices. Global warming poses an existential threat to the planet. Successfully responding to this threat requires urgent actions — clear plans and actionable strategies — to rapidly reduce GHG emissions and adapt to climate-influenced events.
The Eco-nomics series, to be published every other week in The Herald, is focusing on mitigation and adaptation strategies viewed through the twin perspectives of science and economics.
Read the series thus far at tinyurl.com/RobertsEco-nomics1, tinyurl.com/RobertsEco-nomics2, tinyurl.com/RobertsEco-nomics3, tinyurl.com/RobertsEconomics4, tinyurl.com/RobertsEco-nomics5, tinyurl.com/RobertsEco-nomics6 and tinyurl.com/RobertsEco-nomics7
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