By Paul Roberts / For The Herald
The United Nation’s climate conference — COP28 — recently concluded in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
The UAE is one of the world’s leading petrostates, and the chairman of COP28, Sultan Ahmad Al-Jaber, is the head of its national oil company. Because of the outsized influence of the oil industry, COP28 proceedings were met with skepticism. However, analysis of the results are mixed. Let’s focus on what happened at COP28, what didn’t happen, and what in the world is happening with Earth’s climate systems, driving the need for more urgent actions.
COP stands for Conference of the Parties, the annual U.N. climate summit. COP28 involved 198 nations coordinating a global response to climate change, mitigation and adaptation, and resulted in a mix of actions and agreements. The good news is there were modest steps in the direction of reducing emissions, transitioning away from fossil fuels to renewables, and funding to strengthen resilience, particularly for poorer nations. The bad news is the agreements are largely aspirational. They lack the specificity and scale necessary to meet targets limiting warming to between 1.5 degrees and 2 degrees Celsius.
These were baby steps in pursuit of a runaway train.
The conference was preceded by a technical assessment “stocktake,” measuring progress toward meeting the Paris agreement (see Eco-nomics No. 10, The Herald, Nov. 25). The assessment was included in the COP28 agreement, finding the world is not on track to meet the Paris targets. It called on all parties to strengthen their response.
U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres opened COP28 saying: “Earth’s vital signs are failing.” He continued: “Climate chaos is fanning the flames of injustice. Global heating is busting budgets, ballooning food prices, upending energy markets, and feeding a cost-of-living crisis. Climate action can flip the switch.”
Key highlights of COP28 are listed here, and more information can be found on the U.N. website.
The agreement calls on all countries to reduce “consumption and production of fossil fuels, in a just, orderly and equitable manner” and reduce methane emissions. This is the first time the world has agreed to move away from coal, oil and natural gas; the principal causes of global warming. It calls for expanding renewables three fold. Reporting on the agreement, the Economist said: “reducing reliance on fossil fuels will ultimately depend on making them uncompetitive. A combination of carbon prices and well-targeted subsidies for clean technologies can do so in the rich world.”
There was heated debate surrounding the language “transitioning away” from fossil fuels vs. “phasing out” fossil fuels entirely. However desirable and necessary phasing out may be, the technologies are not yet available to provide alternatives (e.g. concrete, steel, ocean shipping, etc.; see Eco-Nomics No. 8, The Herald, Oct. 28). That is why investing in research and development for zero-emission renewable technologies and eliminating subsidies for fossil fuels are the most critical actions needed to speed up a transition regardless of the language. These actions can be taken now if the political will can be found.
There was progress addressing loss and damage associated with climate change. This included an historic agreement to strengthen resilience, establishing a funding framework for compensation; the Global Goal on Adaptation. The GGA will provide technical assistance to developing countries particularly vulnerable to climate change. The agreement establishes a consensus framework on adaptation targets, and recognizes the need for finance and capacity-building. More work and funding will need to follow if the GGA is to succeed.
Funding for climate finance was an outcome of this COP, establishing The Green Climate Fund with pledges standing at $12.8 billion from 31 countries. However, it is noteworthy that these funds fall far short of the needs identified in the stocktake. They are pledges that must be realized over time representing good will and good intentions. Real actions must follow.
Recognizing fossil fuels are the driver of climate change, and committing to “transitioning away” from their use, is a welcome but tepid step toward meeting the Paris agreement. The science identifying the causal relationship between fossil fuel use and climate change has been known for more than 60 years. It was known by the oil industry as early as 1967.
COP28 represents a measured pledge to reduce fossil fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions, but that is sometime in the future. Meanwhile, fossil fuel use continues to increase, along with associated emissions and impacts. Changes to the Earth’s atmosphere, weather and sea level are neither slow nor linear.
Last year, 2023, was the hottest year on record. The ten hottest years on record include all eight years since the Paris agreement (2016-2023). The global temperature is now estimated at 1.3 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. New data indicates the impacts of climate change are accelerating.
In Everett and Snohomish County, impacts include increasing heat, expanded wildfire seasons, flooding and sea level rise.
We are caught between oil shale rock and a hard place; between increased fossil fuel use and the limitations of the atmosphere to sustain a livable planet. Finding the political will to transition to a zero-emission economy depends on our investing in the research and development for renewable energy, and pricing carbon.
Paul Roberts is retired and lives in Everett. His career spans over five decades in infrastructure, economics and environmental policy including advising Washington cities on climate change and past chair of the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency board of directors.
Eco-nomics
“Eco-nomics” is a series of articles exploring issues at the intersection of climate change and economics. Climate change (global warming) is caused by greenhouse gas emissions — carbon dioxide and methane chiefly — generated by human activities, primarily burning fossil fuels and agricultural practices. Global warming poses an existential threat to the planet. Successfully responding to this threat requires urgent actions — clear plans and actionable strategies — to rapidly reduce GHG emissions and adapt to climate-influenced events.
The Eco-nomics series, to be published every other week in The Herald, is focusing on mitigation and adaptation strategies viewed through the twin perspectives of science and economics.
Find links to the series thus far at tinyurl.com/HeraldEco-nomics.
Talk to us
> Give us your news tips.
> Send us a letter to the editor.
> More Herald contact information.
