By Paul Roberts / For The Herald
On every continent and in every corner of the globe climate change is bringing new realities, new risks and adaptation challenges. Climate change is supersizing events such as floods, fires and heat, making them more frequent, intense and costly, as the aftermath of Hurricane Helene has shown. It is changing the way we measure and manage risks and driving higher losses and insurance costs.
Many aspects of climate change are complex, but the basic physics are not. Carbon dioxide is warming the atmosphere, and warmer air holds more moisture resulting in more rain, flooding, heat and hurricanes. Saturated soils result in more frequent and damaging landslides. High heat and low humidity expand available fuels increasing wildfire risks.
Last month Hurricane Helene hit the Big Bend region of Florida where the panhandle and peninsula meet. It was one of the strongest storms in recorded history and the third hurricane to hit this area since August of 2023 (Hurricanes Debbie this August and Idalia in August of 2023).
Warm water is fuel for hurricanes. They rapidly increase in intensity over warm waters as they approach land. Helene went from a category 1 hurricane to a category 4 in just hours as it approached Florida in waters well in excess of 80 degrees.
Helene brought unprecedented rain, flooding and devastation to states along the East Coast including Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Tennessee. The Associated Press reported that Helene dumped record amounts of rain on Atlanta — over 11 inches in 48 hours — the most the city has seen in a two-day period since record-keeping began in 1878.
Climate-related events totaling in the billions of dollars are now happening at a rate of more than one per month. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in 2023 there were 28 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disasters, the highest annual disaster count ever recorded. The total cost in 2023 was $94.8 billion. Damage assessments from Helene are still being tallied, but Moody’s Analytics has estimated property damage associated with Helene between $15 and $26 billion.
Increasing costs of more frequent and sever climate related events are reflected in higher insurance costs. Homeowners, including those in Washington state, are paying more for insurance due in part to more frequent storms and wildfire risks. Increased home prices, material and labor also add to these costs. Insurance companies are raising premiums to cover costs, or are no longer writing policies. In states such as Florida, Texas and California it has become harder to get insurance at all.
Insurance companies and governments are reassessing environmental risks and costs associated with climate change. Historic weather and climate patterns are no longer a reliable basis for predicting future risks, protecting property, designing new infrastructure or maintaining existing assets.
Higher insurance costs are contributing to the already high cost of housing without adding any additional value, square footage or physical attributes. Obtaining traditional home loans absent insurance is difficult or impossible making housing less accessible for many.
North Puget Sound — including Everett and Snohomish County — is vulnerable to climate-influenced storm events, atmospheric rivers, flooding and landslides. Examples include the Oso landslide in 2014, the Northwe4st heat dome in 2021, flooding in Stanwood during king tides, and extreme storm events in November 2021 where atmospheric rivers resulted in record flooding on the Nooksack, and flooding on the Skagit, Stillaguamish and Snohomish rivers. Climate change has loaded the dice, making weather events stronger, longer and more damaging.
Insurance companies, emergency managers, state and local governments are focusing more attention on climate adaptation strategies. The Washington state Office of Insurance Commissioner has been working to improve preparedness and reduce risks. It sponsored a “Climate Summit Series” to educate the public on risks and risk management related to climate change including floods and fires (tinyurl.com/OICClimateSummit). Local governments are preparing climate action plans including emergency plans for climate related events.
Climate-influenced disasters such as floods, landslides, heat and fires, add huge costs and risks to whole communities and individuals, impacting energy and transportation infrastructure. The State’s Climate Commitment Act is an important source of funding to respond to these events. Climate change will increase the frequency, severity and cost of disasters, and the risks associated with them.
Voting no on Initiative 2117 will preserve a key source of funding we will need to respond.
Paul Roberts is retired and lives in Everett. His career spans over five decades in infrastructure, economics and environmental policy including advising Washington cities on climate change and past Chair of the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency Board of Directors.
Eco-nomics
“Eco-nomics” is a series of articles exploring issues at the intersection of climate change and economics. Climate change (global warming) is caused by greenhouse gas emissions — carbon dioxide and methane chiefly — generated by human activities, primarily burning fossil fuels and agricultural practices. Global warming poses an existential threat to the planet. Successfully responding to this threat requires urgent actions — clear plans and actionable strategies — to rapidly reduce GHG emissions and adapt to climate-influenced events.
The Eco-nomics series focuses on mitigation and adaptation strategies viewed through the twin perspectives of science and economics. Find links to the series thus far at tinyurl.com/HeraldEco-nomics.
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