By Paul Roberts / For The Herald
With apologies to Star Wars enthusiasts, there’s been a disturbance in the Force. Well, actually, more than one.
First, as reported in the Washington Post, global warming has effectively reached the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) established in the Paris accords as the desired upper limit for global temperature rise. According to the World Meteorological Organization concentrations of carbon dioxide are now growing faster than at any time since our species evolved, and 2024 will probably be the hottest year in recorded history.
Levels of potent greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide hit all-time highs in 2023. The total heat-trapping potential of the atmosphere is now 51.5 percent higher than in 1990, when the United Nations scientists first warned the world was on track for catastrophic climate change.
“This should set alarm bells ringing among decision makers” WMO Secretary General Celeste Saul said in a statement. “Every part per million and every fraction of a degree temperature increase has a real impact on our lives and our planet.” Rising temperatures result in more frequent, intense and costly weather events. The costs are measured in terms of lives and destruction.
Second, the election of Donald Trump as president will likely reverse U.S. gains made fighting climate change. In his first term, he withdrew the U.S. from the Paris climate accords, promoted expansion of fossil fuels, claimed wind turbines cause cancer and insisted he could redirecti the path of a hurricane with a Sharpie.
During this campaign he called climate change a hoax and repeatedly described his energy policy as “drill, baby, drill.” Trump pledged to increase oil production, exports and domestic reliance on fossil fuels. He intends to once again withdrew from the Paris accord, roll back pollution controls, eliminate federal incentives promoting renewable energy and electric vehicles, dismantle the federal bureaucracy at the Environmental Protection Agency and other federal agencies and replace science experts with political appointees loyal to him.
Amidst these two developments, the annual United Nations climate conference COP29 opened this week in Baku, Azerbaijan. COP29 is shorthand for the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, involving over 100 nations.
The agenda for COP29 includes reaching agreements on new finance targets, update plans to reduce greenhouse emissions, and building a clean energy economy. Reversing U.S. climate policy is a cloud overshadowing the conference and will complicate the proceedings.
If the U.S. withdraws from the Paris agreement and rolls back clean energy support as Trump has pledged, it will create a vacuum in global leadership. That vacuum will likely be filled by China and European nations. China has already asserted itself as a leader in clean energy technology and development with vast natural and political resources devoted to the task.
The retreat of the U.S. from global climate efforts will slow clean energy development but it will not stop it. But it will place the U.S. at a competitive disadvantage in a changing global economy, increasing emissions and climate impacts.
Reversing U.S. climate policies comes at a time when scientists around the world warn of dire consequences if greenhouse gases are not rapidly reduced. Experts are calling for immediate and significant emissions reductions to avoid catastrophic, irreversible climate impacts.
Domestically, state and local governments are likely to step into the breach with mitigation, adaptation and clean energy initiatives. In 2017 during the first Trump administration, a coalition of governors, mayors and business leaders continued to work toward meeting the Paris goals.
In this past election cycle, several states adopted climate measures including Washington and California. In Washington the defeat of Initiative 2117 preserved the state’s Climate Commitment Act. In California, voters approved Proposition 4 raising $10 billion to help prevent wildfires, protect clean water and invest in clean energy. State and local governments are on the front lines responding to extreme heat, fires and floods resulting from climate change, independent of national policy.
It would be a mistake for the U.S. to cede leadership on climate change to China and other nations. The rest of the world, including American corporations, recognize the benefits of a clean energy economy.
Given the environmental and economic threat posed by a destabilizing climate, the future is an economy powered by clean energy, not by fossil fuels. California and Washington state are in a strong position to contribute to a clean energy revolution.
In a test of wills between the Trump administration and the forces of nature, nature will ultimately win. Planetary physics are immune to politics.
Paul Roberts is retired and lives in Everett. His career spans over five decades in infrastructure, economics and environmental policy including advising Washington cities on climate change and past Chair of the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency Board of Directors.
Eco-nomics
“Eco-nomics” is a series of articles exploring issues at the intersection of climate change and economics. Climate change (global warming) is caused by greenhouse gas emissions — carbon dioxide and methane chiefly — generated by human activities, primarily burning fossil fuels and agricultural practices. Global warming poses an existential threat to the planet. Successfully responding to this threat requires urgent actions — clear plans and actionable strategies — to rapidly reduce GHG emissions and adapt to climate-influenced events.
The Eco-nomics series focuses on mitigation and adaptation strategies viewed through the twin perspectives of science and economics. Find links to the series thus far at tinyurl.com/HeraldEco-nomics.
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