A woman helps a customer shop for apples at a supermarket in Beijing in March. China raised import duties on a $3 billion of U.S. pork, fruit and other products in April in an escalating tariff dispute with President Trump that companies worry might depress global commerce. China imports about $50 million of apples from Washington state growers. (Mark Schiefelbein/Associated Press file photo)

A woman helps a customer shop for apples at a supermarket in Beijing in March. China raised import duties on a $3 billion of U.S. pork, fruit and other products in April in an escalating tariff dispute with President Trump that companies worry might depress global commerce. China imports about $50 million of apples from Washington state growers. (Mark Schiefelbein/Associated Press file photo)

Editorial: Trade disputes’ effects rolling in on prices, jobs

Talks continue with Canada, but as China and the U.S. swap tariffs, economic impacts loom.

By The Herald Editorial Board

Some figures to keep in mind:

In Washington state, 4 in 10 jobs depend on international trade, including those of apple, wheat and soy farmers, craft distillers and winemakers, aerospace engineers and machinists, software developers and e-commerce employees, truck drivers and port workers and thousands of other trades and professions.

In 2016, that meant 332,600 jobs tied to exports from the state, third only in the U.S. behind Texas’ 910,300 jobs and California’s 683,000, according to the International Trade Commission.

The value of Washington-produced exported goods reached $7 billion in 2017. Among our top trading partners are China, Canada, Japan, the United Arab Emirates, South Korea, Taiwan, Norway, Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Russia, the top ten accounting for about 41 percent of that total value. China alone accounted for nearly 24 percent of that $7 billion.

Which explains why producers, government officials, trade advocates and others are watching with some anxiety as the Trump administration continues talks to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada. U.S. and Mexico trade representatives reached a tentative agreement last month, but talks with Canada have made less progress with both President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau threatening to walk away without a deal, although Canadian representatives expressed greater optimism Friday that negotiations were likely to continue through September.

While China remains the state’s top trading partner, the state’s exports to Mexico have increased 700 percent in recent years, while Canada’s have doubled. Washington state’s apple growers supplied $250 million worth of apples to Mexico last year, compared to $50 million exported to Chinese markets.

NAFTA’s trade arrangements with Mexico and Canada, taking effect nearly 25 years ago, were long overdue for an update, said Lori Otto Punk, president of the Washington Council on International Trade, the Seattle-based trade policy organization.

But it’s concerning, Otto Punke said Friday in a phone interview, that talks with Canada and Mexico were preceded by harsh talk, tariffs and threats of retaliatory rounds of more tariffs.

“We are concerned because tariffs are not the right way to resolve disagreements. We need serious negotiation for a meaningful chance at an agreement that doesn’t scare off a lot of business and investors from Washington state,” she said.

There are legitimate trade issues to be raised with China, Canada and other nations. China has used the leverage of its huge potential markets to force American corporations to accept unfair concessions regarding intellectual property. Canada has imposed significant tariffs for years on dairy products and softwood lumber.

But one consequence of the tariffs and adversarial approach to renegotiating these deals is that foreign customers for Washington products have started looking for other producers in countries where tariffs haven’t affected prices and the supply chain. Even if agreements are forthcoming, the state still will have lost opportunities to strengthen trade ties and keep those customers.

And while the U.S. is at least talking with Mexico and Canada, the U.S. and China still are involved in tit-for-tat rounds of tariff threats with no indications of fruitful talks and more notifications of cancelled orders for Washington goods and services.

The U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods are likely to result in higher prices here, while China’s retaliatory tariffs will hurt sales of Washington products there. Those higher prices and lost sales may not be obvious yet, Otto Punke said, but price increases could hit, in untimely fashion, during the holiday shopping season.

All of this has been complicated because the Trump administration has elected to disrupt global trade on a grand scale with allies and rivals alike and at the same time.

It used to be news, Otto Punke said, when one particular product was hit with a tariff. Now we’re seeing a range of industries and nations hit with tariffs and demands for renegotiation of agreements, all at once, she said, resulting in uncertainty for many businesses and their employees.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade agreement that had been all-but-signed by the U.S. and 11 other Pacific Rim countries at the end of 2016, was tossed aside by Trump. In addition to securing trade agreements that would have held other countries to stricter labor and environmental standards — and countered China’s attempts to gain trading footholds with those countries — the TPP could also have served as a template for updating NAFTA more quickly, with less rancor and fewer impacts here.

Otto Punke and other WCIT representatives are scheduled to visit Washington, D.C., later this month, meeting with the state’s congressional delegation and others to make the case for protecting trade relationships and encouraging fair negotiations.

Congress will have the chance to vote on new trade deals with Mexico and Canada, but those votes aren’t likely to come until next year, which makes trade and the Washington state jobs that depend upon it, key election issues.

Already, Otto Punke said in June, the trade war with China has theatened to hurt Washington state workers and farmers without clearing a path forward on trade negotiations with China.

President Trump may yet get the deals he seeks with our international trading partners. But the costs in increased prices, job opportunities and the economy are now beginning to roll in.

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THis is an editorial cartoon by Michael de Adder . Michael de Adder was born in Moncton, New Brunswick. He studied art at Mount Allison University where he received a Bachelor of Fine Arts in drawing and painting. He began his career working for The Coast, a Halifax-based alternative weekly, drawing a popular comic strip called Walterworld which lampooned the then-current mayor of Halifax, Walter Fitzgerald. This led to freelance jobs at The Chronicle-Herald and The Hill Times in Ottawa, Ontario.

 

After freelancing for a few years, de Adder landed his first full time cartooning job at the Halifax Daily News. After the Daily News folded in 2008, he became the full-time freelance cartoonist at New Brunswick Publishing. He was let go for political views expressed through his work including a cartoon depicting U.S. President Donald Trump’s border policies. He now freelances for the Halifax Chronicle Herald, the Toronto Star, Ottawa Hill Times and Counterpoint in the USA. He has over a million readers per day and is considered the most read cartoonist in Canada.

 

Michael de Adder has won numerous awards for his work, including seven Atlantic Journalism Awards plus a Gold Innovation Award for news animation in 2008. He won the Association of Editorial Cartoonists' 2002 Golden Spike Award for best editorial cartoon spiked by an editor and the Association of Canadian Cartoonists 2014 Townsend Award. The National Cartoonists Society for the Reuben Award has shortlisted him in the Editorial Cartooning category. He is a past president of the Association of Canadian Editorial Cartoonists and spent 10 years on the board of the Cartoonists Rights Network.
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