Krauthammer: Few good options for GOP to replace Obamacare

By Charles Krauthammer

The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away, but for governments it’s not that easy. Once something is given — say, health insurance coverage to 20 million Americans — you take it away at your peril. This is true for any government benefit, but especially for health care. There’s a reason not one Western democracy with some system of national health care has ever abolished it.

The genius of the left is to keep enlarging the entitlement state by creating new giveaways that are politically impossible to repeal. For 20 years, Republicans railed against the New Deal. Yet, when they came back into office in 1953, Eisenhower didn’t just keep Social Security, he expanded it.

People hated Obamacare for its highhandedness, incompetence and cost. At the same time, its crafters took great care to create new beneficiaries and new expectations. Which makes repeal very complicated.

ADVERTISEMENT
0 seconds of 0 secondsVolume 0%
Press shift question mark to access a list of keyboard shortcuts
00:00
00:00
00:00
 

The Congressional Budget Office projects that, under Paul Ryan’s Obamacare replacement bill, 24 million will lose insurance within 10 years, 14 million after the first year.

Granted, the number is highly suspect. CBO projects 18 million covered by the Obamacare exchanges in 2018. But the number today is about 10 million. That means the CBO estimate of those losing coverage is already about 8 million too high.

Nonetheless, there will be losers. And their stories will be plastered wall to wall across the media as sure as night follows day.

That scares GOP moderates. And yet the main resistance to Ryan comes from conservative members complaining that the bill is not ideologically pure enough. They mock it as Obamacare Lite.

For example, Ryan wants to ease the pain by phasing out Medicaid expansion through 2020. The conservative Republican Study Committee wants it done next year. This is crazy. For the sake of two year’s savings, why would you risk a political crash landing?

Moreover, the idea that you can eradicate Obamacare root and branch is fanciful. For all its catastrophic flaws, Obamacare changed expectations. Does any Republican propose returning to a time when you can be denied health insurance because of a pre-existing condition?

It’s not just Donald Trump who ran on retaining this new, yes, entitlement. Everyone did. But it’s very problematic. If people know that they can sign up for insurance after they get sick, the very idea of insurance is undermined. People won’t sign up when healthy and the insurance companies will go broke.

So what do you do? Obamacare imposed a monetary fine if you didn’t sign up, for which the Ryan bill substitutes another mechanism, less heavy-handed but still government-mandated.

The purists who insist upon entirely escaping the heavy hand of government are dreaming. The best you can hope for is to make it less intrusive and more rational, as in the Ryan plan’s block-granting Medicaid.

Or instituting a more realistic age-rating system. Sixty-year-olds use six times as much health care as 20-year-olds, yet Obamacare decreed, entirely arbitrarily, that the former could be charged insurance premiums no more than three times that of the latter. The GOP bill changes the ratio from 3-to-1 to 5-to-1.

Premiums better reflecting risk constitute a major restoration of rationality. (It’s how life insurance works.) Under Obamacare, the young were unwilling to be swindled and refused to sign up. Without their support, the whole system is thus headed into a death spiral of looming insolvency.

Rationality, however, has a price. The CBO has already predicted a massive increase in premiums for 60-year-olds. That’s the headline.

There is no free lunch. GOP hard-liners must accept that Americans have become accustomed to some new health care benefits, just as moderates have to brace themselves for stories about the inevitable losers in any reform. That’s the political price for fulfilling the seven-year promise of repealing and replacing Obamacare.

Unless, of course, you go the full Machiavelli and throw it all back on the Democrats. How? Republicans could forget about meeting the arcane requirements of “reconciliation” legislation (which requires only 51 votes in the Senate) and send the Senate a replacement bill loaded up with everything conservative — including, tort reform and insurance competition across state lines. That would require 60 Senate votes. Let the Democrats filibuster it to death — and take the blame when repeal-and-replace fails, Obamacare carries on and then collapses under its own weight.

Upside: You reap the backlash. Downside: You have to live with your conscience.

Charles Krauthammer’s email address is letters@charleskrauthammer.com.

Talk to us

> Give us your news tips.

> Send us a letter to the editor.

> More Herald contact information.

More in Opinion

toon
Editorial cartoons for Sunday, May 18

A sketchy look at the news of the day.… Continue reading

Wildfire smoke builds over Darrington on Friday, Sept. 11, 2020 in Darrington, Wa. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Editorial: Loss of research funds threat to climate resilience

The Trump administration’s end of a grant for climate research threatens solutions communities need.

In the summer of 2021, members of the Skagit River System Cooperative counted fish in the restored estuary of Leque Island near Stanwood. What they found was encouraging. (Chuck Taylor / The Herald) 20210817
Comment: Ignoring the climate choice to adapt or die

The loss of funding for climate adaptation science will leave regions to weather impacts on their own.

Reverse Congress librarian’s unjust firing

I am beyond heartbroken by the unceremonious firing of Dr. Carla Hayden,… Continue reading

Should states handle issue of immigration?

OK, here we go again. The southern states have been screaming ‘states’… Continue reading

Candidates without opponents should decline donations

No candidates registered to run against Jared Mead or Nate Nehring for… Continue reading

Why does Trump need three 747s?

If children can make do with two dolls instead of 30 while… Continue reading

No doubt about what Trump is doing to nation

There is no doubt about it. The Trump administration is in reality… Continue reading

Among the programs sponsored by Humanities Washington was a Prime Time Family Reading Event at the Granite Falls Sno-Isle Library in March. (Rachel Jacobson)
Comment: Loss of humanities grants robs us of connections

The loss of $10 million in humanities funding in the state diminishes what celebrates human creativity.

Comment: Democrats’ tax plan aimed at ‘villain,’ hit consumers

The governor should veto a B&O tax increase that will hit food prices at stores and restaurants.

Comment: Compare tax choices of 3 states and watch what happens

Idaho and Montana cut their taxes. Washington raised taxes to historic levels. Will an exodus result?

Sarah Weiser / The Herald
Air Force One touches ground Friday morning at Boeing in Everett.
PHOTO SHOT 02172012
Editorial: There’s no free lunch and no free Air Force One

Qatar’s offer of a 747 to President Trump solves nothing and leaves the nation beholden.

Support local journalism

If you value local news, make a gift now to support the trusted journalism you get in The Daily Herald. Donations processed in this system are not tax deductible.