Washington will not have an income tax this year. I suspect that the people who most want to see it on the ballot are the same folks who would set flame to the legislation, soak the ashes in holy water, place the sodden mess in a silver casket, bury it at a crossroads at midnight, and mark the grave with a wreath of garlic.
If you want to kill the income tax for a decade, put it before the public in November. Washington voters are in no mood to embrace a new tax.
So why hold the hurry-up hearing last week in the Senate Ways and Means Committee?
The simple explanation is that a significant number of legislators — notably including Senate Majority Leader Lisa Brown, D-Spokane — believe in a progressive income tax.
Even successful politicians occasionally err by generalizing from a small sample, assuming that the people they represent are representative of the state as a whole. Brown says, while she’s heard from all sides, she’s received “mostly positive feedback” from her constituents. No doubt other legislators are also hearing happy affirmations.
But not many.
Every decade or so, someone decides that Washington voters are ready to “join the mainstream” and adopt an income tax. And the voters quickly correct them.
In 2002, a blue-ribbon committee called for a flat-rate personal income tax. The economy was sour and so were legislative reviews of the committee’s work. No deal.
In the late 1980s, Gov. Booth Gardner energetically promoted an income tax plan that would also have required a 60 percent supermajority for tax increases. Despite his popularity and a growing economy, he couldn’t get lawmakers to bring his plan to a vote on the floor.
In 1982, a commission created by Gov. John Spellman and the Legislature recommended a state income tax. The governor said no.
Gov. Dan Evans twice managed to get an income tax plan on the ballot. Voters rejected it 2-1 in 1970. Then, to be clear, they buried it 3-1 in 1973.
Income tax boosters say things are different now. We’re a larger, more metropolitan state, more sympathetic to “progressive ideas.” Maybe, but I doubt it. And this would be a risky time to put the premise to the test.
Voters distrust government these days. Last fall, Gallup found that, nationally, trust in state governments had dropped to the lowest level since 1973. A new poll by Portland-based DHM Research found that 47 percent of Washingtonians believe the state is “off on the wrong track.” Just 36 percent believe the state is headed in the right direction.
Voters who don’t trust government will not trust lawmakers with a new tax. On tax and spending issues, voters specifically object to the way lawmakers are handling things.
The Elway Poll recently reported that two-thirds of Washington voters believe their tax dollars are not being well spent. The repeal of the I-960 supermajority requirement for tax increases sparks uncommon bipartisan agreement. Asked in a SurveyUSA poll whether they thought repeal was the right or wrong thing, 68 percent responded “wrong thing,” including 79 percent of Republicans, 55 percent of Democrats, and 74 percent of Independents. Finally, a political kumbaya moment in a contentious environment.
Believing lawmakers broke faith with them on the supermajority, taxpayers are unlikely to be swayed by legislative promises that this tax hike will only soak the rich; they know it would trickle down quickly. Already, the “millionaire’s” or “high earner’s” tax would impose a 4.5 percent income tax on individuals earning $200,000.
Despite Washington’s legendary populism, voters here have long held that the sales tax is fairer than the income tax. And it’s less subject to political manipulation.
The proposal is also bad tax policy. It would destabilize the tax structure and chase entrepreneurs and investors from the state. More than most, the wealthy are mobile.
While dead for the session, the debate isn’t over. With the sales tax bumping 10 percent, spending still outpacing revenue growth, and a budget deficit looming in 2011, the search for new ways to tap the taxpayer and promote the progressive tax agenda will continue.
Unless they decide to let the voters kill it again.
Richard S. Davis, president of the Washington Research Council, writes on public policy, economics and politics. His e-mail address is richardsdavis@gmail.com.
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